Saturday, June 26, 2010

Inflation (CPI)

The government report attributed most of the month-to-month decline to the energy index, which fell by 2.9% in May. The gasoline index fell by 5.2% in May, and was down 27% over the year.

"Up to this point, the U.S. economy has been the beneficiary of an 'inflation-less' recovery," said Jim Baird, partner and chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a research note.

"While [some] point to the risk of inflation down the road," he added, "there is still sufficient slack in the economy to keep price levels from moving higher."

Core CPI and inflation: The closely watched core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, ticked up by 0.1% in May after being unchanged in April. That matched economists' expectations.

It was only the second monthly increase in core CPI so far this year. The rate is down by 0.9% over the previous 12 months.

"The core inflation rate remains uncomfortably low," Baird said. "The economy may be expanding, but at a pace that isn't inspiring."

The core rate is a gauge of inflation. Experts say concerns are sparked only when core CPI rises consistently by 0.2% or more each month.

"Muted inflation, and the risk of deflation, seems likely to provide the Fed continued incentive to maintain its accommodative stance," Baird said. 

Home construction fails to lift recoveryInflation (CPI)