Wednesday, December 30, 2009

My sins (and good deeds) of 2009

I was wrong to predict that the government would lose money on its TARP bailout loans to Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500). BofA has repaid its loans, Citi has repaid $20 billion of them, and the government is a bit ahead on the other $25 billion, which it converted to Citi common stock at $3.25 a share.

My mistake was not realizing how much the government would continue to subsidize Wall Street, whose overreaching got us into this mess.

It never occurred to me that the Treasury would let Citi and BofA repay their bailout loans (and escape most government control) even though they're not exactly financially robust. It also never occurred to me that the Treasury would want to recycle the TARP loan repayments into other programs. Foolish me.

2. The prudent lose. It's nice to have company. I've been saying almost since the bailout started two years ago that the prudent people among us have been penalized by the way the government is bailing out imprudent borrowers and institutions. Now, competitors of mine are making the same point.

It's important to revive the economy, and low short-term rates have traditionally been the primary tool for doing that. But the Federal Reserve has gone way beyond cutting short rates. It's been trying to prop up house prices by keeping mortgage rates artificially low, and has been supporting the prices of longer-term securities by buying vast amounts of them.

This has clobbered retired people who are trying to live off interest income to supplement Social Security. So these retirees either have to reduce their standard of living, eat into principal, or take more risk to keep their income up. Not a way to reward lifetime savers.

3. Regulation. I was right to be skeptical about the "populism" in Washington. The Obama administration and Congress have beaten up on the worker-bee types at places like AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) and Wall Street investment houses, and are shrieking about bonuses that in many cases are really part of base pay. But the government got the pay czar to give the designee of its choice a $10.5 million annual contract to run AIG, and will doubtless cut deals for high-level hires at places like Chrysler.

0:00/2:45Best investing bets for 2010

Meanwhile, there's no serious move afoot to break up the "too big to fail" institutions so they won't be too big to fail in the future. So these institutions, some bailed out directly by the government, others bailed out when the government bailed out the world financial system, will go merrily on their way. Until the next crisis, when taxpayers will rescue them again.

The proposal to make hedge fund and private equity fund managers pay a full tax on their piece of their investors' income has gone nowhere. So these fees are still considered lightly-taxable capital gains rather than fully-taxable fee income.

It's the same-old, same-old: the really big players, the ones who contribute so much to campaigns and wield real power, are barely touched while upper-middle-income and small rich types get whacked.

4. The market. At least I got the stock market right. In late 2007, with stocks in free fall, I said that it was time to consider buying stocks, provided you had staying power and a six- or seven-year time horizon. (In fact, I did just that with my own money, and have recovered much of what I lost in 2008 and early 2009.) Through Monday, the Wilshire 5000 index was up $3.1 trillion, or 28%, for the year, according to Wilshire Associates. If stocks end the year where they closed on Monday, the dollar gain would be the biggest ever, following the biggest-dollar-loss year, 2008.

With the market so much higher, stocks are a bigger risk than they were a year ago. What will the market do this year? Would that I knew.

5. Next year: In August, I predicted that Social Security would be the big story of 2010. We'll come back in a year, and see if I was right.

Meanwhile, a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year to you and yours. 

Stocks: Bracing for volatility2 banks repay bailout loans

More employers to boost hiring in 2010

Although employers remain cautious about hiring, "there have been many signs over the past few months that point to the healing of the U.S. economy, especially the continued decrease in the number of jobs lost per month," Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder, said in a statement.

Only 9% of the employers surveyed said they plan to decrease headcount in 2010, down from 16% last year, while 61% don't plan to change staff levels and 10% are unsure.

Part-time opportunities are also on the rise, CareerBuilder said. Eleven percent of employers said they plan to add part-time employees in 2010, up from 9% in 2009.

Just 8% said they plan to decrease their part-time help in the year ahead, down from 14%, while 69% plan no change in headcount and 13% are unsure.

Hiring is expected to increase in information technology, manufacturing, financial services, professional and business services and sales in the coming year, CareerBuilder said.

When asked which areas employers plan to hire for in the year ahead, one-third said technology, followed by customer service. Slightly less than one-quarter said they plan to add sales people, while research/development, business development, accounting/finance and marketing positions were also well represented.

In keeping with 2009's trend, many employers anticipate hiring freelancers or contractors to keep costs down in 2010.

According a recent tally, 7.2 million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession and 15.4 million Americans are now unemployed and seeking work.

CareerBuilder surveyed more than 2,700 hiring managers and human resource professionals across industries. 

Briefly: Displaced GM auto workers, suppliers get job helpHoliday cheer: More bonuses this year

Blank check sends Fannie, Freddie soaring

While the support from Treasury would appear to be a vote of confidence for the firms, the companies' leaders apparently have no interest in owning the stocks themselves.

According to pay packages disclosed for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Thursday, no stock or options are being issued to any of their top managers. That is unusual for shareholder-owned companies.

Other firms receiving federal bailouts, such as General Motors and American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) have been pushed by the government to pay their executives with stock.

Both Fannie Mae CEO Michael Williams and Freddie Mac CEO Charles Haldeman were given $6 million annual pay rates for 2009, with all the compensation coming in cash. Other top executives received annual cash payments of $2 million or more each, according to the companies' filings.

0:00/2:56Fannie and Freddie CEO pay jackpot

The lack of stock and options for Fannie and Freddie executives suggests that when Congress and the Obama administration decide what to do with the mortgage firms, shareholders could be left with little or no equity.

Bose George, an analyst with investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote in a note to clients that the lifting of the $200 billion limit is likely a sign that the Obama administration wants to use Fannie and Freddie to provide additional help to the housing market.

In July 2008, Congress gave Treasury the right to provide as much aid as it deemed fit to the two firms, meaning that the current administration does not need additional Congressional approval for more funding.

"We believe that this change is not primarily directed at covering losses from [the firms'] existing portfolios," he wrote Monday. "Our estimates suggest that even in a stress case scenario [the firms] are unlikely to exceed the $200 billion each that they had been allowed to access."

George said it's not a surprise that top executives at Fannie and Freddie would demand all-cash compensation packages.

"The shares have no long term value," he wrote. "This reinforces our view that the common shares will eventually trade to zero."

The Treasury Department reiterated Thursday that it expects to present its plan for what to do to reform Fannie and Freddie in February. But KBW's George said in an interview that he doesn't believe there will be much reform for at least another year.

George said it's clear that hundreds of billions of dollars in losses will have to be written off. He added that Fannie and Freddie will eventually need between $100 billion to $150 billion of assistance each from Treasury, making their bailouts by far the most expensive of the financial crisis.

The shares of the two firms are still publicly traded even though the federal government placed the companies into conservatorship in September 2008 due to losses from rising home foreclosures and falling home values. The two firms own or insure about $5 trillion of mortgage-backed securities between them.

The conservatorship will give Treasury about 80% of the shares of both companies, but it puts taxpayers on the hook to cover ongoing losses. Fannie has drawn down $60.9 billion and Freddie has drawn $50.7 billion of federal help so far under the reorganization process. 

Bank of America set to repay $45 billion in U.S. loansBank of America dodges a bullet

Monday, December 28, 2009

Mr. Sunshine's happy economic outlook

Wesbury predicts economic growth of 5% or more in the last three months of this year, nearly twice the average forecast, followed by at least 4.5% growth in 2010.

He sees job growth returning as soon as December of this year. Unemployment, now at 10%, will fall to about 8.5% by the end of 2010, he believes. That's about a percentage point better than most economists' estimates. In 2011, he says, the rate will drop to about 7%.

He's bullish on housing, too: He says things are improving so fast in real estate that by the third quarter of 2010, there could be a seller's market for new homes.

Wesbury maintains this rosy view even though he believes government action to rescue the economy hurt more than it helped.

He blames the financial meltdown not on lack of government oversight, but on mark-to-market accounting, which required banks and Wall Street firms to value the assets on their balance sheet at current market prices. Those rules, which caused massive losses when the housing bubble burst, were significantly loosened earlier this year. That easing, he argues, was the key to reopening the flow of credit and reviving the economy.

Despite his policy worries, he believes the economy can overcome the headwinds caused by government intervention to post solid growth. Here now is a question-and-answer session with Mr. Sunshine, Brian Wesbury.

How quickly do you think we'll start to see substantial job growth of 200,000 or more needed to help lead to a sustained decline in unemployment?

Typically when you are in a V-shape kind of recovery, that happens pretty quickly. I expect by very early spring or late winter we'll be seeing significant job growth. Retail sales are up at an annualized rate of 7% in the last six months. Manufacturing output is up 8%. Inventories are very low. What that means is I think we've fallen behind, companies have waited almost too long to try to catch up, so we'll see this thing accelerate pretty quickly.

What are the primary drivers you see behind that kind of growth?

Easy money by the Fed, pent-up demand, that's two of the factors. Mostly, we're rebounding from a panic. But look at the pent-up demand for cars, for houses. We're only starting 550,000 houses at an annualized rate. Just population growth alone says you need about 1.5 million a year. We're down to about a seven months' supply. That means if builders don't start right now, by the third quarter of next year there will be shortages of housing.

Do you believe that TARP and stimulus and the other money that the government has pumped into the economy has hurt the recovery?

It made people believe that we have to have government save the economy. I don't believe that. The Fed created the bubble. There's no doubt about it. Then the question is how do you deal with those problems, do you let the market deal with them or the government deal with them? We let the government deal with them. But nothing turned the economy and market around until we changed mark-to-market rules. That's when banks were able to start raising money, that's when stocks started to go up.

Is it difficult to be an optimistic supply-side economist at a time that even Arthur Laffer, the dean of supply-side economists, is writing a book called "The End of Prosperity"?

I'm not having any difficulty. What I find interesting is how negative many conservatives are. I'm a short-term bull on the economy. I'm a long-term worrier. You can worry about the policies, you fight against them, but you should be long stocks at the same time, because they're undervalued, and the economy is going to come back strong.

If we get strong growth in 2010, are you worried that it will be taken as an affirmation of the kind of government intervention in the economy that you decry?

Yes. I want to always see the economy do well. What I don't want is people to take the wrong lessons from this. That's why I think conservatives are making a huge mistake right now arguing that just Obama breathing every day will cause the stock market to go down and you should buy gold and head to the hills. The economy is bouncing back, it's going to be stronger than people think. That's only going to make it easier for (conservatives') political opponents to argue that they saved the day by spending lots of money.

In your book you try to strike down a number of generally accepted economic problems that you argue are overstated. Do you think that reports about continued tight credit for both consumers and small businesses are overstated? How can the economy see the kind of growth you're expecting if credit is so tight?

It's absolutely true that credit is tighter than it was, but it's not the sort of thing that will stop the economy. Money is like a flood. You can try to stop the water, but it is always going to find its own level somewhere. When the Fed prints this much money, it's going to find its way into the system. We're seeing the same kind of reduction of credit we've seen in other recessions in the past, and none of those stopped the recovery.

Isn't it tough to argue that you're not a starry-eyed optimist since you go to almost every Northwestern University football game and you're counting on your Chicago Cubs to end a century-long drought and win the championship this year?

Every year I predict they're going to the World Series. That way I know I'm going to be wrong about one thing. We hope that the long history is eventually broken. So this is my counter-cyclical nature. I'm an optimist on the economy and the long history of the economy shows I'm usually right. But I guess the Northwestern Wildcats and the Cubs usually don't fulfill my dreams.

Interview has been condensed and edited.  

Chinese premier strikes defiant yuan toneFed holds interest rates

Chinese premier strikes defiant yuan tone

"We will not yield to any pressure of any form forcing us to appreciate. As I have told my foreign friends, on one hand, you are asking for the yuan to appreciate, and on the other hand, you are taking all kinds of protectionist measures," he said.

"The true purpose (of these calls) is to contain China's development," he added in an interview with the official Xinhua news agency.

The yuan has fallen against the currencies of most of its trading partners this year because it has been fixed to a weakening dollar, while China's economy has bounced back strongly. U.S. senators have asked for an investigation into whether current yuan policy represents a form of subsidy that would justify tariffs on Chinese imports.

Wen also repeated an oft-made declaration that the stable yuan had contributed to the global economic recovery.

0:00/0:49LCD makers expand to China

A series of foreign policymakers, including U.S. President Barack Obama, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, have visited China in recent months to press for an appreciation of the yuan.

But many analysts believe that Chinese leaders will want to see several consecutive months of increasing exports before letting the yuan resume the path of gradual appreciation it followed from 2005 to mid-2008.

The market expects a roughly 2.7 percent appreciation of the yuan over the next 12 months, according to offshore forwards pricing.

Property worries

Wen gave a cautious outlook for the domestic economy in 2010, saying it was too early to wind down the government's stimulus policies but that officials needed to be attentive to surging property prices and incipient inflation.

Although China would continue to encourage citizens to buy homes for their own use, differentiated interest rates would be used as a tool to fight property market speculation, Wen said.

He was apparently referring to a policy proposal that China could keep preferential mortgages -- a discount of up to 30 percent on benchmark lending rates -- for people buying their first homes but eliminate them for additional home purchases.

0:00/01:51Chinese town trims the tree

More broadly, Wen warned on imbalances rising from too much bank lending while defending China's use of a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package to fend off the global economic crisis.

"Parts of the economy are not balanced, not coordinated, and not sustainable," Wen said, repeating previous statements.

It would be better if lending by Chinese banks was not on such a large scale, Wen added.

China's overall lending situation had improved in the second half of the year, when banks dramatically slowed their pace of credit issuance after a record surge in the first half, Wen said.

Chinese bank are on course to lend an unprecedented 9.5 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) this year, double last year's total. The market expects new loans to fall to about 7.5 trillion yuan next year.

This time last year, central planners facing a sharp downturn in external demand for Chinese exports worried the country would be unable to reach the 8 percent growth deemed necessary to maintain employment and avert social instability.

With the country on track for about 9 percent growth this year and an even faster expansion next year, concerns have instead shifted to whether pockets of the economy are overheating and whether inflation could flare up.

Wen warned that although there is no sign of inflation at present, this year's exceptional money supply growth could stoke inflationary expectations and that inflation could appear. But he said the government was committed to seeing through its massive two-year stimulus package, launched in late 2008.

"If we have a too-early exit of the stimulus policies, we may lose all that we have already achieved," he said. 

China revises 2008 GDP higherFed holds interest rates

Bailout's big mistake: Loans to small banks

Most of those banks won't pay back their bailout funds for years -- if at all: One went bankrupt. Two of those banks have failed. Dozens are subject to government sanctions. And 56 were unable to pay their quarterly dividends or interest payments last month.

At a quick glance, things are looking up for the bailout: Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) announced on Wednesday that they paid back a combined $45 billion in loans. The original eight bailout recipients have now paid back their loans in full, and 71% of TARP's $205 billion bank bailout portion has been returned.

Like squeezing blood from a stone

But while the larger banks have been eager to be rid of TARP because of the negative stigma associated with the bailout and the associated executive pay restrictions, most smaller banks have little incentive to quickly pay back their funds. Bailed out banks aren't required to pay back their TARP loans for five years, and smaller banks are happy to sit on the cheap money.

Besides an unwillingness to repay taxpayers quickly, many small banks are simply unable to do so.

0:00/6:10Warren: TARP puts us at greater risk

The law stipulates that banks who pay back their funds early must replace them with another source of capital, and the big banks have been able to go to the market and issue stock to grow their capital reserves. Small banks, however, don't have the luxury of issuing more stocks, as investors largely remain weary of small banks who haven't yet proven their health.

"Equity markets are not open to smaller banks," said J.P. O'Sullivan, associate director of banks and thrifts at SNL Financial. "Regulators are going to want to see them build up their common equity before they redeem. That means they're going to have to earn their way out."

Small banks, big problems

Other bailed out banks are struggling. A Treasury report issued last week showed 56 banks did not pay their quarterly dividends or interest payments on their bailout funds, up from 33 in August. Only one bank that missed its dividend in August paid it in November, and 12 banks have missed at least three-straight payments.

"Usually not paying a dividend means the bank doesn't have enough capital, or it isn't earning, which is a bad sign if you want to get paid back," said Linus Wilson, professor of finance at the University of Louisiana.

Three banks missed dividend payments because they no longer exist or went bankrupt: Small business lender CIT filed for bankruptcy in November, and though it recently emerged from Chapter 11, it no longer has to pay back the $2.3 billion that taxpayers shelled out to it, and it no longer pays a dividend. Last month, taxpayers lost another $303 million after TARP recipients UCBH Holdings and Pacific Coast National Bank failed.

Additionally, dozens of bailout recipients are subjects of enforcement actions like cease and desist orders from the Federal Reserve and other regulators, a warning sign that the banks are in danger of failing.

The White House last month estimated total losses from the $700 billion bailout will amount to $141 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office lowered its estimate to $159 billion. But experts say that loss could be higher if more small banks fall into trouble.

Small bank bailouts: Necessary evil or mistake?

Some argue that the government never should have bailed out small banks in the first place: Small banks wouldn't have brought the entire industry down if they failed. Many aren't well-capitalized enough to use their TARP loans for lending. And many, like CIT, were troubled at the time of Treasury's investment.

"There's not a whole lot of good economic justification for injecting capital into small banks," said Wilson.

Instead, Wilson and others argue that troubled small banks should have been allowed to go through bankruptcy or fail and be acquired by another bank. That would have cleared away their bad assets and allowed them to lend -- something throwing money at troubled banks doesn't allow for.

"All banks with deficient capital should have gone through a FDIC-type resolution process," said Simon Johnson, professor of global economics and management at MIT. "TARP funds for small banks were a smokescreen for the overly generous bailouts for big banks."

The problem with allowing smaller banks to go bankrupt or fail is that it could have been politically damaging. Letting mom & pop banks fail while bailing out big banks would have looked unseemly.

Another factor was the need for speed. Treasury wanted to quickly rescue the financial sector, and the bailouts offered calm to an unstable market.

"Giving TARP to small banks was a judgment that had to be made quickly, and it gave a lot of comfort to the market," said Lawrence Kaplan, former special counsel at the Office of Thrift Supervision who is now the senior attorney in the financial institutions practice at Paul Hastings. "Investors believed that these banks would survive. Though there were some troubled institutions in the mix, most are fine and still with us." 

2 banks repay bailout loansCan Obama bully the bankers?

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Debt limit: What's the fuss?

And $290 billion sounds like a lot of money. But it's not really. In fact, it's only expected to cover the Treasury's borrowing needs through mid-February.

During fiscal years 2008 and 2009, the ceiling needed to be raised three times - from $9.815 trillion to $12.104 trillion. If the $290 billion increase is enacted into law, the new ceiling would be $12.394 trillion.

The short-term increase means lawmakers are punting to early next year what is on track to be a knock-down, drag-out fight over which party is more irresponsible and how to address the country's growing fiscal problems.

In the meantime, there are practical matters regarding the debt ceiling that lawmakers can't afford to ignore.

What's the problem exactly?

The ceiling reflects the level up to which the Treasury is allowed to borrow.

If the ceiling is ever breached, the country would effectively be in default. That can hurt bonds, the dollar and creditors' portfolios. In the universe of financial things to avoid, it ranks as a "no good, very bad" event.

Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., has said default would be "catastrophic."

The Congressional Research Service put it a little less emotionally in a report on the history of the debt limit.

0:00/02:32Deficit warriors storm Congress

"Although not all the possible consequences of a government default are known, it would mean that the government could no longer meet all its obligations," the service wrote. "Not only the default, but the efforts to resolve it would arguably have negative repercussions on both domestic and international financial markets and economies."

The country's debt level is currently within kissing distance of the $12.104 trillion ceiling. It stood at $12.044 trillion as of Dec. 21.

No one can say for sure which day the ceiling would be breached because the amount of debt subject to the limit can fluctuate up or down on any given day. Treasury has said that the debt is very likely to hit the limit by Dec. 31.

The expectation is that lawmakers would never let the country go into default. But that doesn't mean they don't sometimes, as one budget expert put it, "hold themselves hostage" until the 11th hour and 59th minute before deciding to raise the ceiling.

In the past, Congress sometimes hasn't voted for an increase until the debt was just $25 million below the ceiling. In borrowing terms, that's a New York minute.

While lawmakers raise the ceiling when they need to, it's a tough political vote because there's a lot of damning rhetoric thrown around during the debate, usually by the minority party at the majority party accusing them of being spendthrifts.

Truth is, both parties are to blame for the debt predicament.

What happens when debt hits the limit?

Treasury officials are in touch with congressional leaders daily about the debt ceiling issue.

The day the debt actually hits the ceiling, the Treasury will alert congressional leaders that it will start using various cash management moves to keep the country from default for a short while.

In the past, a "short while" could mean as much as several months. Today it means no more than a few weeks and possibly a few days because the government's financing needs have grown so large in the past two years.

"The tools haven't grown as the deficit has grown," a Treasury spokesman said.

Just how long the Treasury can stave off default depends on when a breach occurs. "It's hard to say exactly when we'd run out of cash," he said.

If the ceiling is hit on Dec. 31, as Treasury expects, the agency's juggling act won't hold up very long. That's because the borrowing needs of the country will be most onerous at the end of the month.

Here's why: On Dec. 31, the Treasury will need to record as debt the amount of money it has borrowed from the Social Security and Medicare trust funds over the past several months. (Yes, the government borrows the surplus revenue from the funds, and has done so for years.) At the start of January, Social Security checks and veterans' benefit checks will need to be sent out.

So those two factors combined will quickly deplete the resources Treasury has to prevent default.

That's why the Obama administration has been pressuring lawmakers to deal with the debt ceiling increase promptly. If the Senate does what it says it will, Treasury will find a higher debt ceiling under the tree on Christmas morning.

Are you stuck in a lousy 401(k) plan at work but want help maximizing your retirement savings? Send us an email at
makeover@moneymail.com . For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here .  

Geithner: Bailout program extended to OctoberHouse passes $290 billion boost to debt limit

Job Growth

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The long-suffering U.S. jobs market improved significantly in November, as employers trimmed the fewest jobs of any month since the start of the recession, and the unemployment rate posted the biggest one-month decline in more than three years.

U.S. payrolls slipped 11,000 jobs in the month, far below any of the job losses posted over the last 23 months. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 125,000 jobs in November.

The October and September job loss estimates were also revised sharply lower, trimming previous job loss estimates by 159,000 between them.

The new reading put October job losses at 111,000 jobs, and September's loss estimate was cut to 139,000. Each of those new estimates would have been the smallest declines in more than a year.

The unemployment rate improved to 10% in the month. Economists had forecast it would remain at the 10.2% level reached in October, which had been a 26-year high. The unemployment rate had risen in 12 of the previous 13 months before November.

"I think it's a little bit premature for champagne, but after enduring two years of really bad news, let's enjoy this one," said Jay Bryson, economist with Wells Fargo Securities. "You've got to walk before you start running. I don't think we're walking yet, but we're starting to get back up on our feet."

Long-term unemployment remains gloomy. Still, the number of jobs lost -- even with the lower revisions -- since the start of 2008 is 7.2 million. And that only captures the net loss of jobs, and doesn't give a full picture of the large pool of those without work or income.

The report showed 15.4 million Americans are now unemployed and seeking work, although that's down 325,000 from the October reading. Another 6 million want jobs but are not counted as part of the labor force because they have stopped looking.

Add to that group the 9.2 million who have only found part-time work when they want full-time jobs or have had their hours cut as a result of the downturn, and that brings to 30.6 million Americans who are not able to find the full-time job they want or need.

The long-term unemployment problem was worse in November than at any time in the 61 years those records have been kept. A record 5.9 million people have been out of work for more than 6 months, as the average length of time those with work have been without a job rose to 28.5 weeks.

Rises in work week, temp hiring. Still, there were signs of good news in the report beyond the overall drop in unemployment and sharp decline in job losses. One is that the average work week increased to 33.2 hours from a record low of only 33 hours in October, a sign that employers who had cut the hours of their workers were starting to restore those hours.

The jump in work week meant the total number of hours worked by American workers increased by 0.6%, the biggest such jump in three years, which was crucial to help lift the size of paychecks, even as average wages remained relatively unchanged. And that is important for feeding into the recovery in the economy.

0:00/05:06Google CEO: Small biz key to recovery

"Consumer spending is a function of income, not jobs," said Bryson. "Working people longer hours is a way of creating more income."

Another hopeful sign cited by economists was a 52,000 increase in the number of temporary workers. Typically employers bring on temporary help before they add permanent employees. It was the biggest jump in temporary help in five years.

"The temporary workers and the longer hours, those are signs this is finally going in right direction," said Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest employment staffing firm. "Now we need to get to creating 200,000 to 300,000 jobs a month. That's what it'll take to get improvement in labor market. It's very possible it can be in the second quarter of next year."

White House still concerned. The report came the day after the Obama administration held a "jobs summit" at the White House, during which business leaders, economists and policymakers discussed what could be done to end the job losses.

President Obama continued to focus on the job situation during a trip to Allentown, Pa., Friday, at which he toured Allentown Metal Works and a community college. He said he would announce additional measures Tuesday that he will send to Congress in an effort to jumpstart private sector hiring.

"This is good news, just in time for the season of hope. But I want to keep this in perspective," the president said. "Good trends don't pay the rent. We've got to actually grow jobs and get America back to work as quickly as we can."

Alan Krueger, the Treasury Department's chief economist, said the report and other economic readings show that the layoffs have slowed but that hiring still remains weak.

"The trend of slow healing continues but there is a long way to go before the labor market returns to full health," he said. While Krueger said there are many encouraging signs in the report, "unemployment remained unacceptably high."

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele issued a statement pointing out that the economy has lost 2.8 million jobs since the Obama administration passed its economic stimulus bill in February, and that the unemployment rate remains in double digits.

"If President Obama is truly interested in job creation, then he should stop campaigning for re-election, stop pushing 'Stimulus II,' and start working with Republicans on common-sense conservative solutions," said Steele. 

The unemployment rate is falling!Unemployment rate improves in Tennessee

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Jobless claims fall more than expected

A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to decline to 470,000.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 465,250, down 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 468,000.

"It's encouraging to see the headline number in jobless claims come down, but it doesn't tell the story as much it used to," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo. "Unemployment claims could be falling because the labor market is strengthening or because the labor market is so bleak that people never got hired and never had the chance to get fired."

Continuing claims: The government said 5,076,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available. That's 127,000 down from the preceding week's revised 5,203,000 claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 90,000 to 5,233,250 from the previous week's revised 5,323,000.

But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

Congress passed legislation last month to extend federally paid benefits up to 99 weeks, depending on the state, but the law only helps those who exhaust their federal unemployment lifelines by the year's end.

Lawmakers in the House and the Senate recently passed measures to extend the filing deadline through the end of February. The President is expected to sign the legislation soon.

Both chambers initially introduced bills to push the deadline to apply for benefits through 2010 or beyond, but Democratic leaders in the House scaled back the effort in hopes of getting the bill through the Senate more quickly.

State-by-state: Jobless claims in 19 states declined by more than 1,000 for the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available.

Claims in North Carolina dropped the most, by 14,374, which a state-supplied comment said was due to fewer layoffs in the textile, construction, service, rubber and plastics and electrical equipment industries.

Claims in Louisiana jumped the most, by 1,123.

Outlook. While jobless claims are trending downward, Vitner says they will need to drop much further to improve the overall picture of the job market.

"A large proportion of the population is already unemployed and has been for a very long time," he said. "The rate of layoffs has slowed, but there hasn't been a pickup in hiring."

While it is normal for the rate of job losses to overwhelm the rate of job creation during a downturn, Vitner says employers have been especially sluggish about adding jobs this recession.

For positive job growth, Vitner said initial claims will have to fall below 350,000.

"We're headed in the right direction, and we'll get there when we see payrolls pick up in the middle of next year," he said.  

TN unemployment fund may need a loanJobless claims fall more than expected

Free shipping! Rhode Island's eBay play

Rhode Island is the latest state to harness modern technology to turn forgotten loot into much-needed revenue. It is auctioning 100 items worth a little over $50,000 through mid-January.

As of Christmas eve, it reaped more than $22,000 on 30 pieces. That's about 108% of their estimated value.

The most popular: A 1980 gold South African Krugerrand, which pulled in 51 bids and sold for $1,275. The most expensive: An 18-karat Italian gold bracelet, which went for $1,869 and collected 50 bids.

Most of the pieces come from safety deposit boxes on which fees went unpaid for at least three years. Rhode Island law calls for banks to turn over the property to the state, which then searches for the owners before auctioning off the items. If the owners eventually surface, they will be paid the item's value.

Until now, the Ocean State held a traditional live auction every several years. The most recent was last year, during which more than 900 items sold for $370,000. It was the state's first in a decade.

State treasury officials, however, began exploring online auction as a way to reach more bidders, garner higher prices and reduce costs. It joins a growing number of states that have turned to the Internet to auction unclaimed property.

"We will be receiving bids not only from the local area, but from across the nation and the world," said Frank Caprio, the state's treasurer. "More competition will lead to higher prices and more interest in the items."

Holding auctions online costs a fraction of the live event.

Last year's auction cost more than $60,000, which covered the auctioneer's and appraisal fees, as well as marketing and other expenses, said David Salvatore, Rhode Island's unclaimed property manager. The eBay auction should cost the state about $6,000, which includes shipping fees. Plus, the state has to pay eBay for the auction, which has totaled about $1,000 so far.

Pleased with the results of their online experiment so far, Rhode Island officials said they plan to hold eBay auctions every three months or so.

"It's fun to watch the number of bids come in and how quickly they come in," Salvatore said.

The money earned from the auction will go into the state coffers, though it won't do too much to fill Rhode Island's $200 million mid-year budget gap.

Over time, the money can add up. Texas, which pioneered the auctioning of unclaimed property on eBay in 1999, has reaped $4.4 million from the sales of 475,000 items over the past six years, said R.J. DeSilva, a spokesman for the state's Comptroller's Office.

"The fact that we're able to sell almost everything we put up reflects the fact that people are happy with it," he said. 

Taxes, taxes everywhereBrookdale buys 3 retirement centers

More registers ringing this holiday season

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 2009 holiday sales in those two months to decline 1%. That would still be an improvement from a 3.4% drop for the same period a year ago.

Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Economy.com, is forecasting that stores had "slightly better" holiday sales this year versus last year.

"Fundamentally, things were a lot better for consumers," he said. "Last year everyone panicked after the financial crisis. No one was sure how bad things would get."

"Although weakness still persists, such as 10% unemployment, the state of panic is gone," he added.

One sign of that improvement was stronger sales in the second-half of the year, which is typically the most critical selling period. The November-December months can account for half or more of stores' profits for the year.

Plus, sellers didn't resort to desperate holiday discounting like they did last year. So when the final sales tally is rung up, it could reveal a more profitable period for retailers.

"Holiday sales will be fair at best," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with research firm NPD Group. "Retailers definitely had their inventories under control this year so profits are in their pockets."

Snow factor

Cohen also played down concerns over the heavy snow storms that blanketed much of the East Coast on the crucial final sales weekend before Christmas.

"The impact of that storm was miniscule at best," said Cohen. "Retailers and consumers had five whole days to make up for that lost weekend," he said

Some shops, including Macy's (M, Fortune 500) and Toys R Us, announced they would be open 24 hours in the final run-up to Christmas. And Cohen said shoppers who were snowed in likely shifted their leftover shopping online.

Outlook for 2010

If 2009 marks a "transition year" for consumer spending, the hope is that 2010 becomes the year of recovery for consumers and retailers, said Michael Niemira, chief economist with the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

That's essential because consumer spending fuels two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

"Maybe we'll see a sales recovery on its way by the summer," said Niemira.

NPD's Cohen said he's tracking several signs pointing in that direction.

"Between the holiday season not being disastrous, more people buying for themselves on top of gifts, and retailers not offering crazy sales, I think these are good indicators for 2010," said Cohen.

0:00/2:48A new Christmas shopping philosophy

"Consumer will slowly come out of a spending slump,"he said. "But consumers are usually the last ones back after the recession ends. I think it will be six months after the recession is over before we see a definite pick up in spending."

When that happens, department stores and higher-end sellers could benefit the most, Cohen said, simply because these two sectors have suffered the most from shoppers seriously cutting back on discretionary purchases for more than a year.

The recession also boosted sales of discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) as budget-conscious households shifted much of their buying to these lower-prices sellers. Cohen warned that Wal-Mart and its peers shouldn't be complacent that this trend will continue indefinitely.

"Yes, Wal-Mart and others have gained market share but the challenge for them is to keep these new customers," he said. "Discounters have to now figure out how to hold on to them."

For his part, Hoyt predicts consumer spending will remain weak for the first half followed by modest growth in the second half.

Citing the nation's unemployment picture, still-tight credit markets and only modest growth in their personal income, "I don't expect a strong consumer spending recovery in 2010," said Hoyt.

"The economy can live without the consumer in the short term, for another year or so," Hoyt said. But other economic drivers such as exports and business investments will have to pick up the slack in that period, he said 

November retail results suggest tough run-up to holidaysBlack Friday fails to boost stores

Friday, December 25, 2009

Senate passes $871 billion health care reform bill

If enacted, the measure would constitute the biggest expansion of federal health care guarantees since the enactment of Medicare and Medicaid over four decades ago. It is expected to extend insurance coverage to over 30 million additional Americans.

"We are now finally poised to deliver on the promise of real, meaningful health-insurance reform that will bring additional security and stability to the American people," Obama said shortly after the vote.

"If passed, this will be the most important piece of social legislation since the Social Security Act passed in the 1930s."

The bill now must be merged with a $1 trillion plan approved by the House of Representatives in November. Democrats hope to have a bill ready for Obama's signature before the president's State of the Union address early next year.

Senate Republicans failed to stop the bill despite utilizing almost every weapon in their legislative arsenal. GOP leaders have repeatedly warned the measure will raise taxes while doing little to slow spiraling health costs.

Doctors choosing inmates over insurance

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, was forced to cut multiple deals in recent weeks to ensure the support of every member of his traditionally fractious caucus. Top Democrats needed the backing of all 60 members in three key procedural votes over the past four days to break a GOP filibuster.

Final passage of the measure, in contrast, only required a bare majority in the 100-member chamber.

An exhausted Senate planned to adjourn for the holidays shortly after passing the measure.

The health care debate is "about life and death in America," Reid said shortly before the vote. "It's a question of morality, of right and wrong. It's about human suffering. And given the chance to relieve this suffering, we must take this chance."

Reid ripped the Republicans for their unanimous opposition to the bill, saying he was "sorry to say that for the first time in American history, a political party has chosen to stand on the sidelines rather than participate in great -- and greatly needed -- social change."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, argued it is "clear that even many of the people who support this bill with their votes don't like it." Otherwise, he claimed, "they wouldn't be rushing it through Congress on Christmas Eve."

"There is widespread opposition to this monstrosity," he warned. "This fight isn't over."

Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky -- a staunch opponent of the bill -- was the lone senator to miss Thursday's vote.

Passage of the Senate health care bill, which is projected to cut the federal deficit by $132 billion over the next decade, signaled majority agreement in both chambers of Congress on a broad range of changes impacting every American's coverage.

Among other things, the House and Senate have agreed to subsidize insurance for a family of four making up to roughly $88,000 annually, or 400% of the federal poverty level.

They also have agreed to create health insurance exchanges designed to make it easier for small businesses, the self-employed and the unemployed to pool resources and purchase less expensive coverage. Both the House plan and the Senate bill would eventually limit total out-of-pocket expenses and prevent insurance companies from denying coverage for pre-existing conditions.

Insurers would also be barred from charging higher premiums based on a person's gender or medical history. However, both bills allow insurance companies to charge higher premiums for older customers.

Medicaid would be significantly expanded under both proposals. The House bill would extend coverage to individuals earning up to 150% of the poverty line, or roughly $33,000 for a family of four; the Senate plan ensures coverage to those earning up to 133% of the poverty level, or just over $29,000 for a family of four.

0:00/2:58Funding health care with funny money

Major differences between the more liberal House bill and the more conservative Senate bill will now be the focus of the conference committee that will try to merge them.

One of the biggest divides is over how to pay for the plans. The House package is financed through a combination of a tax surcharge on wealthy Americans and new Medicare spending reductions.

Specifically, individuals with annual incomes over $500,000 -- as well as families earning more than $1 million -- would face a 5.4% income tax surcharge.

The Senate bill also cuts Medicare by roughly $500 billion. But instead of an income tax surcharge on the wealthy, it would impose a 40% tax on insurance companies providing what are called "Cadillac" health plans valued at more than $8,500 for individuals and $23,000 for families.

Proponents of the tax on high-end plans argue it's one of the most effective ways to curb medical inflation. However, House Democrats oppose taxing such policies because it would hurt union members who traded higher salaries for more generous health benefits.

Asked in an NPR interview Wednesday if he prefers the income tax surcharge or the tax on high-end plans, Obama predicted the final bill will probably end up with "a little bit of both."

"Cadillac plans ... don't make people healthier, but just take more money out of their pockets," he argued.

The Senate bill also would hike Medicare payroll taxes on families making over $250,000; the House bill does not.

Another key sticking point is the dispute over a public option. The House plan includes a public option; the more conservative Senate plan would instead create new non-profit private plans overseen by the federal government.

Given the reality of the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, however, there hasn't been much serious discussion among House leaders about pushing hard to keep the public option.

The Senate "tried to see if they had support for it. There isn't. That's the reality," a top House Democratic leadership aide told CNN. "I think a lot of people are coming to terms with that and I don't know how productive it would be to bring it out again."

Individuals under both plans would be required to purchase coverage, but the House bill includes more stringent penalties for most of those who fail to comply. The House bill would impose a fine of up to 2.5% of an individual's income. The Senate plan would require individuals to purchase health insurance coverage or face a fine of up to $750 or 2% of his or her income -- whichever is greater. Both versions include a hardship exemption for poorer Americans.

Employers face a much stricter mandate under the House legislation, which would require companies with a payroll of more than $500,000 to provide insurance or pay a penalty of up to 8% of their payroll.

The Senate bill would require companies with more than 50 employees to pay a fee of up to $750 per worker if any of its employees rely on government subsidies to purchase coverage.

Abortion also has been a sticking point for both chambers. A late compromise with Catholic and other conservatives in the House led to the adoption of an amendment banning most abortion coverage from the public option. It would also prohibit abortion coverage in private policies available in the exchange to people receiving federal subsidies.

Senate provisions, made more conservative than initially drafted in order to satisfy Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, would allow states to choose whether to ban abortion coverage in plans offered in the exchanges. Individuals purchasing plans through the exchanges would have to pay for abortion coverage out of their own funds.

Nelson said on CNN's "State of the Union" last Sunday that he would withdraw his support if the final bill gets changed too much from the Senate version.

--CNN's Ted Barrett, Dana Bash, Tom Cohen, Lisa Desjardins and Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report.  

Health bill’s potential costs worry some small buildersSenate OKs filing extension for jobless

Jobless claims fall more than expected

A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to decline to 470,000.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 465,250, down 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 468,000.

"It's encouraging to see the headline number in jobless claims come down, but it doesn't tell the story as much it used to," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo. "Unemployment claims could be falling because the labor market is strengthening or because the labor market is so bleak that people never got hired and never had the chance to get fired."

Continuing claims: The government said 5,076,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available. That's 127,000 down from the preceding week's revised 5,203,000 claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 90,000 to 5,233,250 from the previous week's revised 5,323,000.

But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

Congress passed legislation last month to extend federally paid benefits up to 99 weeks, depending on the state, but the law only helps those who exhaust their federal unemployment lifelines by the year's end.

Lawmakers in the House and the Senate recently passed measures to extend the filing deadline through the end of February. The President is expected to sign the legislation soon.

Both chambers initially introduced bills to push the deadline to apply for benefits through 2010 or beyond, but Democratic leaders in the House scaled back the effort in hopes of getting the bill through the Senate more quickly.

State-by-state: Jobless claims in 19 states declined by more than 1,000 for the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available.

Claims in North Carolina dropped the most, by 14,374, which a state-supplied comment said was due to fewer layoffs in the textile, construction, service, rubber and plastics and electrical equipment industries.

Claims in Louisiana jumped the most, by 1,123.

Outlook. While jobless claims are trending downward, Vitner says they will need to drop much further to improve the overall picture of the job market.

"A large proportion of the population is already unemployed and has been for a very long time," he said. "The rate of layoffs has slowed, but there hasn't been a pickup in hiring."

While it is normal for the rate of job losses to overwhelm the rate of job creation during a downturn, Vitner says employers have been especially sluggish about adding jobs this recession.

For positive job growth, Vitner said initial claims will have to fall below 350,000.

"We're headed in the right direction, and we'll get there when we see payrolls pick up in the middle of next year," he said.  

Jobless claims fall more than expectedTN unemployment fund may need a loan

China revises 2008 GDP higher

China's economy grew at 7.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2009 compared with the same period a year ago. Peng Zhilong of the National Bureau of Statistics said the government would likely revise up growth figures reported thus far this year.

The hidden strength found in China's services sector was a modicum of good news for policymakers in China and abroad, who have said that promoting the development of the country's non-tradeable sector is a key ingredient in rebalancing the global economy.

But it was still far from mission accomplished on that front.

0:00/2:16China's Christmas labor crunch

China's services sector accounted for 41.8 percent of gross domestic product last year, up from the previously reported 40.1 percent. In developed economies, services often contribute more than 70 percent of GDP.

"China always finds it hard to get accurate statistics about the services sector, and the upward revision is not a surprise," Zhang Xiaojing, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said. "But we cannot say China's economic structure is reasonable simply because of that."

The revisions were also unlikely to have much, if any, impact on the country's current policy stance. The government has already begun to rein in its ultra-loose pro-growth measures adopted in the face of the global financial crisis.

Zhang of CASS said the overall picture of a sharp slowdown late last year and a strong recovery this year was still intact.

China's central bank earlier this week reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to maintain an "appropriately loose" monetary policy. The government this week also pledged to deliver the second half of its promised two-year 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package in 2010.

Yet beneath this headline stability, Beijing has started to wind down some parts of its stimulus.

Over the past month, it has scaled back a tax exemption on property sales, increased a tax on automobile purchases, vowed to crack down on speculation in the sizzling housing market and outlined how it will more strictly control bank lending.

Less energy intensity

The revisions also showed that China has made more progress towards its goal of cutting energy intensity, or the amount of energy it uses to produce each dollar of national income.

The country used 5.2 percent less energy per GDP unit in 2008, a bigger drop than the previously reported 4.6 percent fall, the statistics bureau said.

The country set a goal of cutting energy intensity by 20 percent over the five years to 2010, even as overall energy consumption continues to rise.

Originally presented as part of a drive to reduce reliance on overseas oil and gas and to curb damaging pollution, in recent years the efficiency target has also been promoted as a key part of efforts to curb growth in greenhouse emissions.

China is under pressure as the highest annual emitter of the gasses that cause global warming. It has faced a firestorm of international criticism after climate negotiations in Copenhagen ended last week with a broad, non-binding accord that fell short of hopes for a robust global agreement on how to curb emissions.

Beijing says that its emissions per capita and over the course of history are lower than those of rich nations that went through long, dirty periods of industrialisation.

The GDP and energy intensity revisions reflected the results of China's second national economic census, completed earlier this year.

The first census, conducted in 2005, resulted in revisions to growth rates from 1993 to 2004. Peng, the statistician, said China was still working on revising figures for 2005 through 2007. 

Exxon bets on natural gasSovereign wealth funds on the hunt

Community lenders hit the funding jackpot

A CDFI is a Community Development Financial Institution, a certification conferred by the Treasury Department. The program gives low-interest government loans, grants and tax credits to organizations that specialize in economically developing low-income and otherwise underserved markets.

CDFIs were a hot topic at the small business lending forum Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner convened last month to brainstorm solutions to the ongoing credit crunch small companies face. Wary of lending to firms struggling through the recession, banks slashed their small business credit this year.

That left CDFIs, which specialize in riskier loans, scrambling to pick up the slack. Funding requests surged. For the 2010 fiscal year, the CDFI Fund received applications totaling $467 million, a 97% jump from 2009.

Entrepreneur William Ortiz-Cartagena turned to the Opportunity Fund, a California CDFI, for the $10,000 loan that launched his San Francisco parking logistics company. Gentle Parking now has a staff of 12.

"It was very hard to start this company, because traditional lending institutions were just 'no, no,' just not even see me in the door," Ortiz-Cartagena told attendees at the lending forum. "I couldn't even get an appointment with a traditional institution."

Opportunity Fund got Ortiz-Cartagena the money he needed and walked him through the steps of starting a business. "They really sit down with you and make sure that first your business plan is viable -- that it can be successful -- and then help you throughout the process," he said.

The success CDFIs have had getting money out into communities through the downtown is now being rewarded. For fiscal year 2010, Congress appropriated $247 million for the Treasury's CDFI Fund, a funding level President Obama signed into law last week. That's a giant jump from the $107 million the fund got in 2009.

Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) added more financial fuel with the "10,000 Small Businesses" initiative it launched last month. Over the next five years, Goldman Sachs will dole out $300 million to CDFIs across the U.S. A bank spokesman said $50 million of that money will be distributed through grants, with loans making up the other $250 million.

Community development financiers routinely depend on bank loans and philanthropic donations to fill their coffers, but Goldman's cash wad is of record size. It's the largest single-source CDFI funding pool specifically dedicated to small business financing, according to Mark Pinsky, CEO of the Opportunity Finance Network, an industry trade group.

Goldman Sachs said it chose to work through CDFIs because of their track records and community expertise.

"They have deep knowledge of local markets and relationships with the borrowers and businesses that are the least-served by the traditional banking system," said Alicia Glen, managing director of Goldman Sachs' Urban Investment Group.

First at bat

The first CDFI to get an infusion of Goldman capital is Seedco Financial in New York City. The organization landed a $20 million loan, which it will in turn begin lending out early next year.

Part of the money will go to create a new financing program aimed at more mature small companies. Seedco will target businesses that have been around for at least three years, generate annual revenue of $300,000, and have five or more employees.

"We believe that in the $50,000 to $250,000 -- and even up to $750,000 -- loan amount range, we will be able to have a more material positive impact," said Lesia Bates Moss, president of Seedco Financial.

Targeting small but established companies serves a key goal of both Seedco and Goldman Sachs: Financing job creation.

For one small engineering firm in New York City, a recent Seedco loan is translating directly into financial salvation and two new jobs.

Founded in 2003, IAQ Systems grew steadily until the end of 2008, when the recession hit home.

"We have been hammered on the payment part," IAQ founder and President Sai Barade said. "We were not getting paid on time, and the demand was such that we had to deliver. The ends were not meeting; there was a big gap."

Late last year IAQ landed a contract with the New York City school system that will yield $8 million over three years. But to get that work moving, IAQ needed a loan to make payroll and cover overhead costs.

The company previously tapped bank lines of credit, but "at the end of 2008, all the banks were shrinking away from giving us any lines or loans," Barade said.

Seedco Financial turned around a $200,000 loan within two weeks. "Seedco was very responsive," Barade said. "They understood where we were." The company has 10 employees now and plans to soon add two more.

It doesn't take even $200,000 to create jobs, though. Opportunity Fund, the San Jose, Calif., lender that financed William Ortiz-Cartagena's parking business, has an average loan size of $7,000. Its target borrower has one to five employees.

"There is this credit crunch for small businesses, and there is this reality that we need more loans to flow to small business if we are going to have a robust job creating recovery," said Eric Weaver, Opportunity Fund's CEO and founder.

Opportunity Fund has developed a niche lending to day care and health care providers who work out of their homes. Its interest rates typically run from 6% to 8%.

"For a very small amount of capital, you can start or expand that business," Weaver said. "It is hard work, but it is very important work and it is real income to a family." 

TN unemployment fund may need a loanCan Obama bully the bankers?

Inflation (CPI)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumer prices in October were essentially unchanged from a year ago, the government reported Wednesday, as the rising cost of oil and gas offset earlier price declines.

The Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation reading, is now down only 0.2% during the past 12 months compared to the same period a year ago. This is the smallest 12-month rate of decline since February.

The so-called core CPI, which is more closely watched by economists because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, is up 1.7% over the past year.

For the month, overall prices rose 0.3%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 0.2% rise.

The core CPI rose just 0.2% in the month, but that was higher than the forecast of a 0.1% increase.

A 6.3% rise in fuel prices in the month helped feed the overall monthly increase. The prices of other forms of energy increased in October as well, with electricity costs up 0.6% and natural gas prices rising 1.9%.

Still, overall energy prices are 14% below where they were in October of 2008.

The price of oil fell sharply last fall in the wake of the financial crisis and the resulting cut in global demand. But with oil prices on the rise againit is likely that the 12-month change in CPI will be back in positive territory later this year.

The latest report also showed vehicle prices jumping, with new car prices up 1.6%, while used car prices rose 3.4% in the month.

The roll out of 2010 models, depleted inventories caused by shuttered auto plants earlier this year and a surge in buying this summer from Cash for Clunkers helped lift prices.

But the prices of many other goods were little changed. Food prices rose only 0.1% while apparel prices declined 0.4%.

Is inflation looming?

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that it does not see any broad inflationary pressures on the horizon. That view has allowed the central bank to concentrate on trying to fix the battered U.S. economy through low interest rates and trillions of dollars pumped into the system through various lending programs.

But some economists said there were some troubling signs of inflation beyond the rise in energy in the October CPI report.

Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, points out that the price of goods other than food and energy rose at a higher rate over the last 12 months, than the price of services, which includes everything from medical care to airline tickets. That's the first time this has happened in 26 years.

Services providers typically face less overseas competition than manufacturers. So the price of services should, in theory, rise at a higher rate.

But Vitner said he's worried that the sharp decline in the value of the dollar means that the price of all types of goods will increase in the future. That's because overseas exporters will be less likely to put downward pressure on prices with cheaper goods.

Vitner said he believes at least part of the price increases for vehicles is due to the large share of cars that are either imported or produced here by Asian manufacturers. And he added that the relatively rare price increase for personal computers and peripherals in October is also a sign of the weak dollar.

"Imports have been helping to contain prices," he said. "If the dollar is close to free fall, it has to have more of an impact on inflation."

But Keith Hembre, chief economist for First American Funds, said he doesn't think the weak dollar will add much to pricing pressures. He said as long as unemployment remains high and wages weak, Americans won't have the money necessary to feed inflation.

"I'm afraid it's very difficult to see any upward pressure on wages over the next few years," he said. "If wages and income aren't growing, price increases won't be sustainable."

Neither Hembre nor Vitner believe the Fed will change its inflation outlook, or its policy, simply because the overall CPI will likely soon turn positive for the first time in nearly a year.

But Vitner said he's worried that the positive CPI will feed into inflation worries among investors. That can push bond yields higher, raise mortgage rates for consumers, and increase the cost of loans businesses need to invest in their operations or hire workers.

"Perception counts a lot more on Wall Street than it does with the Fed," he said. "When we start to see higher year over year numbers, it will feed the already lingering doubts about how well the Fed will be able to contain inflation." 

Tax credit, deals ignite home resales in SouthInflation (CPI)

Retail Sales

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail sales in October rose more than analysts expected, the government reported Monday.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales jumped 1.4% last month, compared with September's revised decline of 2.3%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had anticipated that October sales would grow 0.9%.

With Black Friday less than two weeks away, retailers were hoping the report would show consumers signaling a willingness to spend during the all-important holiday sales period.

But sales excluding autos and auto parts edged up 0.2%. That's slightly worse than the 0.4% increase predicted by economists, leaving the holiday outlook a bit murky.

"The overall number was higher than estimates, but with an 0.8% downward revision for September it was a bit of a wash," said Adam York, economist at Wells Fargo.

The summer's Cash for Clunkers program, which ended Aug. 24, "made the numbers jump around so much with revisions that it creates a head fake in trying to call a trend," York said.

Holiday retail season looms. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and data are closely watched to determine whether a recovery is underway. With unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2%, consumers have been cash-strapped for some time.

But with overall retail sales improving, one analyst said the holiday shopping season may come in stronger than expected.

"Consumer spending bottoms out before the job market does [so] this bodes very well," said John Canally, economist at LPL Financial.

But Wells Fargo's York disagreed, saying 2009 will likely be another tough holiday season for retailers.

"Maybe it won't be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much because 2008 was abysmal," York said.

Outlook. Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, said the report was positive enough that he now expects to see more than a 2% rise in sales over the fourth quarter of last year.

"Looking ahead, though, the latest softening in [consumer] sentiment suggests that's not sustainable," he said in a research note.

York said gains in retail sales will be largely contained until the labor market starts to improve.

"Without those gains in personal income we just can't see any meaningful rise in sales," York said. 

November retail results suggest tough run-up to holidaysRetail Sales

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Jailhouse docs choose inmates over insurance

In 2009, private contractor Prison Health Services (PHS) saw a 77% increase over 2008 in the number of respondents applying for job opportunities.

At the University of Massachusetts Medical School, this year 22 of 150 new students chose the correctional health care clerkship as their first choice, more than double the typical response.

"Students are looking for an employer who offers flexible work hours and a steady paycheck. Correctional health care offers both," said Dr. Michelle Staples-Horne, medical director for the Georgia Department of Juvenile Justice, adding that doctors who have stayed with a government agency long enough also benefit from pension plans.

Typically a salaried job with steady work hours, correctional physicians can earn starting salaries of around $140,000, according to Staples-Horne, roughly the same as the average school loan for graduating med students.

A dangerous job?

Dr. Kurt Johnson dumped his practice and became a jailhouse doctor in November. Johnson operated a solo practice in Laramie, Wyo., for six years. Two years ago he started working part time for Brentwood, Tenn.-based PHS, a division of America Service Group (ASGR), which provides doctors, nurses and other health care professionals to detention centers around the country.

"I never thought of correctional health care as a career. It wasn't even on my radar in [medical school] training," said Johnson, now a regional medical director for PHS.

At his private practice he had to cram in dozens of patients daily, sometimes for only five minutes, just to earn enough to cover his overhead expenses.

He was constantly filing insurance paperwork, and malpractice insurance was eating into his income.

With correctional health care, Johnson has a steady paycheck of about $175,000 -- roughly 20% more than he made in private practice.

"Since I was a PHS employee, my malpractice insurance was covered through them. I felt like they had my back," he said.

But he's still getting used to the sound of the prison doors slamming shut. "It's an impressive sound. It gives me goose bumps at times."

He has treated death row inmates. "It's intimidating," he admits, but says he's never felt physically threatened by his patients.

Staples-Horne agrees that doctors typically didn't consider prison to be an ideal or safe setting to practice medicine. She admits that there is risk, but points out that most doctors don't have the benefit of high security that prisons provide.

"Doctors are often safer in this setting than in an emergency room when you don't know any thing about the person coming in," she said. "You don't know if they have a weapon, if they are violent or aggressive."

Doctors say the medical problems affecting inmates can range from simple ailments to serious, chronic problems such as drug and alcohol addiction, heart disease, cancer and AIDS.

Health care on the inside

Dr. Ryan Herrington is a regional medical director with Correctional Medical Services, a St. Louis-based contracted health care provider.

Herrington, a general physician, closed his private practice in Ohio and started working full time in the prison system in April. Anecdotally, Herrington said there is growing interest among doctors seeking opportunity in the corrections environment.

He feels he now has "the financial stability that was harder to attain in private practice."

But Herrington said his own interest in public health also influenced his decision. "These patients have problems that are complex," Herrington said. "They have gone through a tremendous period of time with no health care prior to incarceration."

PHS's Dr. Johnson is mostly happy with his decision. His prison work allows him to spend more time with his wife and three children. In fact, he credits his patients for making him a better doctor.

"I'm trying to make this a career," said Johnson. "So I've also honed my BS detector quite a bit. Now I know when they're trying to get one over me."

Are you stuck in a lousy 401(k) plan at work but want help maximizing your retirement savings? Send us an email at makeover@moneymail.com . For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here .
 

Health perks for the unemployedCommunity Health buying medical practice in Washington state

Jobless claims fall more than expected

A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to decline to 470,000.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 465,250, down 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 468,000.

"It's encouraging to see the headline number in jobless claims come down, but it doesn't tell the story as much it used to," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo. "Unemployment claims could be falling because the labor market is strengthening or because the labor market is so bleak that people never got hired and never had the chance to get fired."

Continuing claims: The government said 5,076,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available. That's 127,000 down from the preceding week's revised 5,203,000 claims.

The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 90,000 to 5,233,250 from the previous week's revised 5,323,000.

But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

Congress passed legislation last month to extend federally paid benefits up to 99 weeks, depending on the state, but the law only helps those who exhaust their federal unemployment lifelines by the year's end.

Lawmakers in the House and the Senate recently passed measures to extend the filing deadline through the end of February. The President is expected to sign the legislation soon.

Both chambers initially introduced bills to push the deadline to apply for benefits through 2010 or beyond, but Democratic leaders in the House scaled back the effort in hopes of getting the bill through the Senate more quickly.

State-by-state: Jobless claims in 19 states declined by more than 1,000 for the week ended Dec. 12, the most recent data available.

Claims in North Carolina dropped the most, by 14,374, which a state-supplied comment said was due to fewer layoffs in the textile, construction, service, rubber and plastics and electrical equipment industries.

Claims in Louisiana jumped the most, by 1,123.

Outlook. While jobless claims are trending downward, Vitner says they will need to drop much further to improve the overall picture of the job market.

"A large proportion of the population is already unemployed and has been for a very long time," he said. "The rate of layoffs has slowed, but there hasn't been a pickup in hiring."

While it is normal for the rate of job losses to overwhelm the rate of job creation during a downturn, Vitner says employers have been especially sluggish about adding jobs this recession.

For positive job growth, Vitner said initial claims will have to fall below 350,000.

"We're headed in the right direction, and we'll get there when we see payrolls pick up in the middle of next year," he said.  

The unemployment rate is falling!TN unemployment fund may need a loan

Retail Sales

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail sales in October rose more than analysts expected, the government reported Monday.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales jumped 1.4% last month, compared with September's revised decline of 2.3%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had anticipated that October sales would grow 0.9%.

With Black Friday less than two weeks away, retailers were hoping the report would show consumers signaling a willingness to spend during the all-important holiday sales period.

But sales excluding autos and auto parts edged up 0.2%. That's slightly worse than the 0.4% increase predicted by economists, leaving the holiday outlook a bit murky.

"The overall number was higher than estimates, but with an 0.8% downward revision for September it was a bit of a wash," said Adam York, economist at Wells Fargo.

The summer's Cash for Clunkers program, which ended Aug. 24, "made the numbers jump around so much with revisions that it creates a head fake in trying to call a trend," York said.

Holiday retail season looms. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and data are closely watched to determine whether a recovery is underway. With unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2%, consumers have been cash-strapped for some time.

But with overall retail sales improving, one analyst said the holiday shopping season may come in stronger than expected.

"Consumer spending bottoms out before the job market does [so] this bodes very well," said John Canally, economist at LPL Financial.

But Wells Fargo's York disagreed, saying 2009 will likely be another tough holiday season for retailers.

"Maybe it won't be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much because 2008 was abysmal," York said.

Outlook. Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, said the report was positive enough that he now expects to see more than a 2% rise in sales over the fourth quarter of last year.

"Looking ahead, though, the latest softening in [consumer] sentiment suggests that's not sustainable," he said in a research note.

York said gains in retail sales will be largely contained until the labor market starts to improve.

"Without those gains in personal income we just can't see any meaningful rise in sales," York said. 

November retail results suggest tough run-up to holidaysRetail Sales

New home sales plunge in November

The November rate was the lowest since April, when new homes sold at an annualized rate of 345,000.

Sales of new construction were expected to edge up to an annualized rate of 438,000 for the month of November, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. But that estimate was based on the initial report for October, which showed an annual sales rate of 430,000. On Wednesday, the Census Bureau revised the October rate down to 400,000.

The November decline can be attributed in large part to changes to the $8,000 home buyer's tax credit, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. Buyers who were rushing to make a purchase ahead of the tax credit's Nov. 30 deadline were given a reprieve -- and more time to shop around -- when it was announced on Nov. 6 that the credit would be extended to April 30, 2010.

"The extension will in due course lift sales again but the key factor in November seems to have been the drying-up of the flow of buyers under the original program," Shepherdson wrote in an e-mail to CNNMoney.com.

Going forward, he expects sales "to rise sharply next year...because eligibility for the tax credit has been broadened to include most homebuyers, not just first-time buyers."

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While the market for new home sales has improved in the wake of the housing crisis, it is a far cry from its July 2005 peak, when sales of new construction hit an annualized rate of nearly 1.4 million.

The largest November declines occurred in the Midwest and the South, where sales rates plunged more than 21% over the last 12 months.

The Census Bureau said there were 235,000 new homes for sale at the end of November. That represents enough supply to last for 7.9 months at the current sales rate.

The glut in inventory has declined substantially since January, when there was enough supply of new homes to last more than a year, according to the government.

"The supply of new homes for sale continues to fall," wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., in a research report. "We now have fewer new homes on the market than at any time in more than 38 years. There's still plenty of competition from used homes, especially distressed property. But even that overhang is gradually coming down."

Home prices have fluctuated throughout the year, but have stayed within a relatively narrow range. In November, the median sales prices for a new home was $217,400, a modest decline from $221,600 in November, 2008.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors released its report on existing home sales for November, which grew 7.4% month-to-month to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units. 

Tax credit, deals ignite home resales in SouthRetail sales leap 1.3% in November

Sovereign wealth funds on the hunt

Sovereign wealth fund managers have reason to be hesitant. A notoriously secretive bunch with an estimated $3 trillion in assets, they have received unwanted attention over the last couple of years for making public missteps.

Several funds acted as white knights at the beginning of the downturn, pouring billions into Western financial institutions. Some profited: the Kuwait Investment Authority recently announced a gain of $1.1 billion from its investment in Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) (the fund hasn't released specifics about the deal, but its preferred stock -- which reportedly came with a conversion premium -- was priced at $17 in early December).

Many, however, saw their investments go downhill. Earlier this year, Singapore's Temasek sold its stake in Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) at an estimated loss of more than $3 billion. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund, is currently battling with Citigroup over its commitment to convert $7.5 billion worth of Citi bonds into shares priced at upwards of $31. Citi stock is now worth about $3.40.

In the wake of the financial crisis, sovereign wealth fund spending ground to a halt for most of 2009. The funds collectively reported just 11 deals worth $11 billion in the second quarter, the lowest amount since 2004, according to British consulting firm Monitor Group.

Yet even as deal flow hit a low, there were signs of life: In the second quarter (the most recent quarter for which data is available) 19 new deals were announced or pending. Now, sovereign wealth funds are getting ready to make big moves again. Eddy estimates a new wave of investments will kick off in the second quarter of 2010.

Indeed, several managers are in talks now with the world's biggest pensions and hedge funds to make investments in coalition, says Eddy. This time, he says, the state-owned funds have an edge over less well-capitalized private investment funds. "Every major hedge fund...is open to new structural relationships," he says. "Sovereign wealth funds can demand a lot more for their money. They're the belles of the ball."

Home economies looking up

One reason sovereign wealth funds are on the move again is that conditions in their home economies are improving. While the funds typically invest outside their own countries, they depend on domestic revenue -- typically from manufacturing or oil exports -- for inflows.

At the beginning of the recession, that spigot dried up, and funds in countries like Russia had to pour money into their native capital markets. "[Russia's] national reserve fund was being used to plug a hole in [its] deficit," says Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at Roubini Global Economics. She adds that some sovereign wealth funds, like Kuwait, faced pressures to invest in their domestic markets.

Now that oil prices have stabilized and exports are rebounding, countries in Asia and the Middle East are better able to divert money to their investment funds, says Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at Roubini Global Economics. "The second half of 2009 was met with a significant increase in global reserves," she says. "The funds of the gulf -- ADIA, Kuwait -- aren't quite at 2008 levels, but they're just about there." Ziemba says China Investment Corp. is reportedly going to receive more capital for spending.

0:00/4:58Euro-zone debt rash.

The next wave of sovereign wealth fund investments is likely to look very different from the flurry that occurred before the crisis. For one, the funds have drastically cut back on banking assets. Just 16% of the deals they made this year involved the financial sector, down from 48% in 2008, according to Barclays data.

Meanwhile, including China Development Bank, which received a capital boost from China Investment Corp., more than 50% of sovereign wealth funds' investments were in the natural resources sector, up from a mere 8% the year before. Huey Evans points to the Chinese government's investments in Rosneft and Petrobras (PZE), oil companies that agreed to send the country fuel in exchange for loans.

"China was the clear leader in making direct investments," she says. "We're seeing much more of that." China Investment Corp.'s last three reported investments were in a Chinese alternative energy business, an American power seller, and a Russian oil producer.

While sovereign wealth fund managers, like most investors, have started allocating more assets to emerging markets this year, Steffen Kern, an economist at Deutsche Bank, thinks they'll continue to invest in the U.S. and Europe. ADIA, for example, recently bought a 10.9% stake in U.S. hotel operator Hyatt (H).

"Intra-regional investments -- especially Asian funds investing in surrounding economies -- are extremely dynamic right now," he says. "But the interest in European and American assets is unbroken."

A whole new professionalism

Sovereign wealth funds are not only rebalancing their portfolios but also their management teams, says Eddy. Several countries, spooked by the sudden losses they incurred over the last couple of years, have taken a hard look at their funds, calling for due diligence. "One of the funds we worked with basically cleaned house," he says. "There's a whole new professionalism to the investment process.

For example, he says, many countries have endeavored to improve coordination between their sovereign funds and other state-owned investment vehicles. In the past, he says, one fund would short a company while the other was buying it.

Fund managers are also starting to collaborate more than they did before, with teams in different countries making investments together. Barclays' Huey Evans says the funds are creating new venues to meet, like the International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds' inaugural forum in Azerbaijan this October.

Other funds are partnering to find buyers for large divestitures. In September, Singapore's Temasek sold its controlling stake in Chartered Semiconductor to Abu Dhabi's Advanced Technology Investment Co. for $1.8 billion.

While Eddy disavows the notion that sovereign wealth funds move in lockstep ("they have more dissimilar than they have in common"), he says he has seen a surge in "extremely creative investments." His clients are looking at the transportation and agriculture sectors, as well as large infrastructure projects in the developing world. "They're the type of deals only large investors can do."

But however creative the funds get, Deutsche Bank's Kern expects the increased scrutiny from their parent governments to continue. "[The governments] had gotten used to high dividends and were surprised -- and disappointed," he says. "The fact that things could turn around so negatively and quickly left a serious impression on them." 

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