Friday, July 31, 2009

Recess for Congress, relief for Obama

(breakingviews.com) -- The pig of U.S. financial reform will be stuck in the legislative python a bit longer. U.S. lawmakers are about to flee steamy Washington for their month-long summer recess, leaving much of Barack Obama's ambitious agenda hanging.

That's probably good -- remaking the banking world is not a task to be rushed. And the president needs to get it more or less right the first time.

The two principal committees charged with shaping reform legislation -- the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee -- have been holding a welter of hearings on various proposals for the last several months. This is understandable, given the scope and technical nature of the reforms -- plus some lawmakers' belief that they were hoodwinked by the last administration over the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Along with overhauling the bank regulatory system, Obama is tackling the $600 trillion private derivatives market and backing measures to wrest oversight of the insurance industry from the states. That's in addition to pushing controversial healthcare reform legislation and a cap-and-trade emissions bill. And it comes on the heels of credit card reform legislation that stirred up a hornet's nest of bank lobbyists.

Even individually, each of these initiatives could draw down even a popular president's store of political capital. Obama still has plenty of that left, and influential allies in Congress. And the financial services industry is able only to mount a token defense in public while its reputation languishes and it remains, to some extent, on government life support.

Admittedly, that's one reason for the urgency. But even so, well-rested lawmakers should be equipped to make better laws, so it's probably a good thing that Congress is off to hit the beach. Reform of financial oversight -- and major changes to the derivatives markets -- don't have to be rushed. And while Obama may be able to twist enough arms to get legislation passed, he won't get a second chance to get it right. 

Corker bill gives more say-so to regulatorsFed’s independence at risk - Dodd

House OKs $2 billion more for Clunker program

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The House on Friday passed a bill to allocate another $2 billion to the Cash for Clunkers program.

The move came after reports on Thursday had raised concerns that the program was out of money.

The bill which diverts $2 billion from a U.S. Department of Energy program loan guarantee program, passed 316-109. The bill will face tough opposition in the Senate which is not expected to vote before Monday.

"I'm pleased about the progress made in the House today about the cash for clunkers program," said President Obama, in a speech immediately following the vote.

The fate of the $1 billion trade-in program was thrown into question Thursday over concerns that it may have already burned through its funds less than a week after it was officially launched.

It was unclear how much longer car buyers would be able to trade in clunkers after reports surfaced on Thursday night that the program would be suspended.

Obama, in his Friday speech, presented the program as a success: "I'm happy to report that it has already succeeded beyond our expectations. It's working so well that there are legitimate concerns that the original funds might already be exhausted."

One of the Clunker program's main champions in Congress, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., said the incentive has provided an important boost to the economy and resulted in 200,000 car sales.

"I am delighted to hear dealers say that all of their salespeople are busy and they are selling more cars in a day than they had been selling in a month," Stabenow said.

Cash for Clunkers, which Congress passed in June, was set to end on Nov. 1 or whenever its $1 billion budget was depleted.

An earlier version of the Clunkers proposal called for appropriating $4 billion.

On Friday morning, the government's official CARS.gov Web site, set up to provide dealers and consumers with information about the plan, still showed $780 million remaining in the coffers.

But many dealers say they are still waiting to proceed.

Under the plan as enacted, vehicles purchased after July 1 will be eligible for refund vouchers worth $3,500 to $4,500 on traded-in gas guzzlers. The trade-in vehicle has to get combined city and highway fuel economy ratings of 18 miles per gallon or less.

The program aims at helping the struggling auto industry by taking inefficient cars off the road and spurring new sales.

Domestic auto sales have been hit hard by the recession and credit crunch and helped propel the bankruptcies and government bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler. In June, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate fell to 9.7 million, a pace well below recent years.  

Corker bill gives more say-so to regulatorsRetail sales rise for second straight month

Hmm ... tastes like recession

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Score one for the green shoots crowd. The second-quarter gross domestic product report Friday clearly showed that the economy is in fact stabilizing.

Stocks were up slightly on the GDP news -- a bit of a surprise considering that investors had appeared to already factor in that the nation's gross domestic product probably shrunk at a much lower rate than in the previous two quarters. The S&P 500, after all, has surged more than 45% since early March.

So even though it's premature to give the economy a clean bill of health and say the recession is really over, many financial experts said it is growing increasingly difficult to be negative about the outlook for the economy and markets.

"There is still a lot of momentum in the market so I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks move higher over next few weeks," said Robert Phillips, co-founder of Spectrum Management Group of Raymond James & Associates, a money management firm in Indianapolis. "The world's not going to be fixed overnight but we're headed in the right direction."

Phillips said that one number in the report that really stood out to him was the drop in business inventories. Companies slashed inventories by $141 billion in the second quarter -- an acceleration of the $114 billion rate of decline in the first quarter.

Because of these actions, Phillips thinks that many businesses are now probably so lean and mean that they do need to start preparing for an eventual recovery. So that could mean that the job market may finally improve before long.

"We could be at the beginning right now of seeing staffing increases from businesses," Phillips said. "Companies have to start rebuilding their inventory and production could start rising in the third quarter."

Still, consumers don't appear to be convinced just yet that the worst is over. Many are still hunkering down and adding to savings instead of spending. Personal consumption expenditures dipped at a 1.2% rate in the second quarter.

And with the unemployment rate currently at 9.5% and widely expected to rise above 10% before long, the average American many not care if the recession is nearing an end.

"Although the recovery is about to begin, it is a technical recovery. The economy will be growing, but growth will be so modest that 70% to 80% of the population won't notice it," said Bill Hampel, chief economist for the Credit Union National Association. "The unemployment rate is not going to improve for some time so it will look, feel and taste like a recession well until next year."

Talkback: Do you plan to spend more in the second half of the year than you did in the first six months? And if you're saving more, what are you cutting back on? Leave your comments at the bottom of this story.

But it's possible consumers may start to feel better even if the job market doesn't take a turn up until 2010. That's because a combination of people being more responsible savers and signs of a bottom in the housing and stock markets might have a big impact. To that end, disposable income rose at a 4.6% rate in the quarter to $121 billion.

"There could be a wealth effect from housing prices stabilizing and the stock market rally," said Burt White, chief investment officer with LPL Financial, an independent broker-dealer in Boston. "If consumers just spend some of that $121 billion, not all of it, then you could get some good surprises in the economy in the third and fourth quarter of the year."

Somebody's spending: Too bad it's Washington

That is a big "if." For now, it appears that government spending is helping to compensate for the consumer slowdown. Total government spending rose at a 5.6% clip in the quarter and federal spending increased at a whopping 10.9% rate.

Time for my Mr. Rogers impersonation. Can you say stimulus and bailouts, kids? I knew you could.

Make no mistake. That is unsustainable, not to mention potentially damaging to the economy if the spending leads to a further weakening of the dollar, higher interest rates and runaway inflation.

"The government can't keep spending at this rate. Businesses and consumers need to pick up spending for the long term," White said.

Now, of course, consumers shouldn't start spending like sailors on shore leave again, or that could lead to new credit bubbles forming that could one day lead to another brutal recession.

0:00/2:50Economy: Here comes the sun

But if consumers don't show some signs of life in the third and fourth quarters, pessimism about the recovery and stock markets could quickly return.

And considering that the revisions to GDP that the government announced Friday showed that the recession actually was even deeper than first believed, it's understandable if consumers decide to stay in bunker mentality mode for awhile longer.

Max Bublitz, chief strategist with SCM Advisors, a money manager based in San Francisco, said the economy is still not gaining much traction just yet. He added that the rally could fizzle if people start to think that a sharp, so-called V-shaped recovery isn't in the cards after all.

"Consumers are doing what you'd expect, spending less and saving more. The government is trying to pick up some of the slack," he said. "But we could have a problematic second half of the year if people realize that this may not be a V-shaped recovery after all."

Karl Mills, manager of the Counterpoint Select fund, added that people need to look at the forest beyond the green shoots. And he thinks that this forest is a nasty little thing called debt.

He said that increased levels of government and private debt will act as a brake on consumption. As such, he's worried that the stock market is way ahead of where it should be in this stage of a possible recovery.

"The stock market is starting to write checks that the economy is going to have a tough time passing," Mills said. "This was not a typical downturn. It will not be a typical recovery."

Talkback: Do you plan to spend more in the second half of the year than you did in the first six months? And if you're saving more, what are you cutting back on? 

Consumer ConfidenceWall St. seeks to extend rally

Consumer Confidence

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of consumer confidence fell more than expected in July as the dismal job market continued to darken the outlook for household spending.

The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.6 in July from a reading of 49.3 in June.

Economists had expected the index to decline to 49, according to a consensus forecast gathered by Briefing.com.

The measure's present situation index fell to 23.4 from 25 last month. The expectations index slipped to 62 from 65.5.

The overall index, which fell to an all-time low in February, had recovered earlier this year as consumers were heartened by a rally on Wall Street, lower energy prices and new government programs to aid the economy.

But that optimism was premature and has given way to concerns about the weak job market, according to Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo Economics Group.

"Now it seems we have a renewed sinking feeling," York said in a research report.

In June, the economy lost 467,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%. Many economists think the jobless rate will top 10% later this year.

"With the economy still losing a massive number of jobs each month and the unemployment rate well on its way to double digits, we do not expect a meaningful improvement in confidence in the near term," York said.

Measures of consumer confidence are closely watched by economists and investors because spending by consumers makes up nearly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.

"More consumers are pessimistic about their income expectations, which does not bode well for spending in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center, said in a statement.

Economists predict GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter of this year after a 5.5% drop in the first quarter. The government will release its advance second-quarter GDP report Friday. 

Consumer ConfidenceWall St. seeks to extend rally

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Helping the unemployed pay their mortgages

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As a growing number of jobless Americansdefault on their mortgages, the Obama administration is considering new ways to help them avoid foreclosure.

Among the options being floated are giving the unemployed money, in the form of grants or loans, to cover their mortgage payments or allowing them to remain in their homes as renters after foreclosure.

The plans remain in the formative stage and are likely to encounter resistance in Congress.

The expanding unemployment rolls have long vexed policy makers focused on stabilizing the housing market. Existing foreclosure prevention programs, including those such as the president's loan modification plan, generally do not help the jobless because they don't have enough income to sustain even reduced monthly payments.

"Unemployment is making the job of doing loan modifications more difficult," William Apgar, a Housing Department senior adviser, told a congressional committee last week. "We are exploring other options related to how to provide assistance to unemployed folks."

Treasury and Housing Department officials declined to comment further.

Unemployment problem

The mortgage meltdown originated when subprime borrowers started defaulting in large numbers after their adjustable-rate mortgage payments spiked. Now, however, it is being fueled by rising unemployment, which is causing a growing number of borrowers with good credit to default. The unemployment rate is 9.5%.

0:00/1:36Unemployment's domino effect

More than 1.5 million homes received at least one foreclosure filing in the first six months of 2009, up nearly 15% from the same period a year ago, according to RealtyTrac. Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity.

Prevention efforts, including President Obama's plan to reduce monthly payments for eligible borrowers to no more than 31% of their income, are failing to stem the tide. That's why the administration needs to go beyond loan modifications, experts say.

"Loan modifications will not reduce by any sizable amount the number of homes going into foreclosure," said Morris Davis, an assistant professor at the Wisconsin School of Business, who estimated in May that 10% unemployment would cause 1.9 million borrowers to default.

To combat this rise, Davis advocates temporarily giving the jobless a housing voucher with their unemployment check. The amount would depend on the housing costs for the area. The benefit would stop when unemployment returns to "more normal levels."

It would cost $62 billion if aid is given to all the jobless, including renters, and $13 billion if given only to homeowners. The initiative would save 885,000 homes from going into foreclosure, Davis said.

Davis' plan is similar to one proposed by several Federal Reserve economists earlier this year. That plan suggests assisting those who have a loss of more than 25% of their income and whose homes are worth less than their mortgages. These people could get help either in the form of grants or loans, and the government share of the mortgage payment would equal the percentage of income lost.

The benefit would stop after two years or when the homeowner's income stream recovers. The program could cost $50 billion if grants were given and significantly less if aid were in the form of loans.

Another goal of both plans is to get help to troubled borrowers without going through loan servicers, who are now struggling to handle a flood of loan modification applications.

"If you think the overriding goal is to stop foreclosures, this would be an effective way to do it," said Paul Willen, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and co-author of the Fed economists' proposal.

Legislation being readied

To get the ball rolling in Congress, Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., plans to introduce a bill that calls for providing mortgage assistance payments to the unemployed through state housing finance agencies.

"This is a way to provide support for people who, though no fault of their own, have seen their job vanish and their house in jeopardy of foreclosure," Reed said in an interview.

The funds, which could be in the form of grants or loans, would go only to homeowners who have reasonable prospects for re-employment. Others could get money for relocation. The state agencies would determine who would qualify and what form the aid would take.

Reed's program is similar to one he introduced in 2007, which focused only on helping delinquent homeowners cover arrears. That plan would have cost $260 million. He has not yet determined the cost for the updated initiative, which would allow borrowers to use the money for future payments.

A new foreclosure prevention program, however, could have a tough time getting through Congress. Some lawmakers see these efforts as a waste of money since they have low success rates.

"Any measures taken to help people avoid foreclosure will only prolong the pain by using taxpayer money to prop up unsustainable mortgages," said Kurt Bardella, press secretary for California Rep. Darrell Issa, the top Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

"The best thing we can do for the unemployed is adopt policies that will create jobs," Bardella said.

How has President Obama's $787 billion stimulus program affected you or your community? Are you seeing a benefit from the Making Work Pay tax cuts or the additional $25 in unemployment benefits? Are you seeing construction jobs or other stimulus-funded work in your neighborhood? Do you still have a job because of stimulus funds? We want to hear your experiences. E-mail your story to realstories@cnnmoney.comand you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

1.5 million homes in foreclosureMortgage rates climb after falling for 3 weeks

Foreclosure inn: Luxury hotels default

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There's plenty of room at the inn. So much, in fact, that many high-end hoteliers are bleeding cash and defaulting on their loans.

"The industry is clearly in a downturn," said John Fox, a vice president with PKF Consulting, an advisor to the hotel industry. "It's across the board with the luxury end of the business hit a little harder than the moderate end."

The epicenter of this default plague is California, with the number of hotels in default jumping 125% during a two month period ending in June, according to Atlas Hospitality, a commercial real estate broker.

The Four Seasons, a five-star hotel in the heart of San Francisco was the latest casualty. In early July it defaulted on a $90 million loan. Before that, the four-star Renaissance Stanford Court Hotel on Nob Hill went into receivership after defaulting on an $89 million loan.

The owners of the upscale W Hotel in San Diego failed to make the mortgage payment in June. The St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort outside Los Angeles -- notorious for hosting AIG Group executives almost immediately after the company received a federal bail out -- defaulted on a $70 million loan in June.

But California isn't the only place facing high-level defaults. Fitch Ratings reported that 13 hotel loans worth $596 million went delinquent in June. Three hotels in Phoenix, Las Vegas and New York City account for a majority of that amount.

Defaults of convenience

The defaults do not always result in foreclosure or sale of the business; at times, defaults are used tactically to force concessions from lenders. "[Often] there has to be a default before the terms of the loan can be renegotiated," he said. "And the loan is a lot higher than the property is worth."

That means that some of the defaulting properties, such as the Four Seasons, are in little danger of shuttering; their owners just want to force their lenders to make the terms of their loans a bit more attractive.

And even if some of the owners do lose their properties, the lenders will undoubtedly resell many of the hotels at prices low enough for the new owners to operate at a profit

There's no doubt, however, that the hotel business has slowed. PKF has revised its occupancy rate forecast for the year downward to 55.4% for the year from a forecast of 57.6% back in December.

"Essential travel is strong," said DeAnne Dale, global sales and account management vice president for Travels Business. "But non-essential travel has decreased a lot."

It's not just a decline in travel that's driving those occupancy rates down. Lots of new hotels, planned during the boom years, have opened recently, increasing the supply of hotels rooms by 3%. That puts additional pressure on management to discount prices.

And it's one reason why Smith Travel Research, which provides data to the hotel industry, revised its revenue forecast last week; it's now predicting a decline in revenue per available room of 17.1% for 2009.

Their pain, your gain0:00/2:20Why Louisville, Colo., is No. 1

Hotels have slashed room prices to attract business customers, with luxury lodgings offering the biggest discounts. According to Smith, the average daily rate for a luxury hotel room fell 12.1% to $253.71 this year through May compared with all of 2008.

The average rate for the next level of hotel rooms, the upper upscale, dropped 7.8% to $147.60; upscale rooms fell 7.3% to $110.89; and budget and mid-scale rooms both dropped about 7%.

That has turned industry profits to losses, according to Sageworks Inc., which offers financial analysis to many different industries. It reports that publicly traded lodging companies have compiled net losses equal to 0.78% of revenue over the past 12 months. In 2006, by contrast, net profit margins were 7.69%.

Privately held hotel companies have done better during the slump. Their net margins only decreased from 5.41% in 2007 to 3.63% during the past 12 months. "Privately held hotels can be more flexible and can accommodate change more efficiently," said Jackie Peluso, a spokeswoman for Sageworks.

Many hotels have been keeping their rooms filled by slashing prices for corporate partners, according to Travels' Dale. Vacationers are also saving as hotels discount rooms. That's apparently encouraging leisure travelers to not give up holiday plans this summer, according to Travels. 

Music gear mecca’s siren song wanes1.5 million homes in foreclosure

California lawmakers OK budget plan

NEW YORK (CNN) -- California's state legislature voted Friday to slash state programs and shuffle around funds to close a $25 billion budget gap that has left the largest U.S. state issuing IOUs.

The state Senate approved the measures early Friday, while the Assembly followed suit Friday afternoon after what one lawmaker called "a horrible mental roller coaster."

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called it "a tough budget, but it's a necessary budget."

"I know that college students will pay now higher tuitions," he said. "I know that teachers will be laid off, and I know state workers will get less money. But we have to do that. It's the only way to solve the problem and to save our great state."

California faced a nearly $3 billion shortfall for July alone, forcing the state to issue IOUs to some county agencies, state vendors and taxpayers. A deal worked out between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers earlier this week includes $15.6 billion in cuts to all parts of government, including schools, colleges, health care and welfare programs.

"California has experienced an unprecedented drop in revenues, and we have no choice but to live within our means," Schwarzenegger said.

No tax hikes, but...: The plan allows California to meet its obligations through the 2010 budget year without raising taxes, which takes a two-thirds majority under California law. But it raises $3.9 billion from increased fees, sped-up tax collections and other revenue-generating measures.

Another $3.1 billion would come from money that had been slated to go to local governments -- a step that has cities threatening to sue. The rest would come from various financial maneuvers, such as shifting state payroll entries to another accounting period.

"I'm really tired, and I just made one of the hardest votes I've made in a long, long time," Republican Assemblywoman Jean Fuller said. "This has been a horrible emotional roller coaster."

0:00/2:26States face budget disasters

Many of the cuts were controversial. One reduces in-home care for the state's Medicare recipients, a program Schwarzenegger said was rife with "waste and fraud." Critics say the measure will result in people who now manage to live at home being forced into nursing homes, and some recipients attempted to use their wheelchairs to blockade the state Capitol in Sacramento last week.

But the Assembly rejected two other elements of the 31-bill package. Lawmakers refused to pull about $1 billion in transportation funds for local governments, and rejected an effort to open up a section of the Pacific coast off Santa Barbara to oil exploration -- a plan turned down by state officials in January.

Schwarzenegger said he could make up for the defeat of those provisions with cuts his office has the authority to make on its own.

The marathon legislative sessions ratified most of a tentative deal struck earlier this week by lawmakers and Schwarzenegger. The Senate approved the package about 6:30 a.m. (9:30 a.m. ET) Friday after a debate that started nearly 12 hours earlier; the Assembly followed suit about eight hours later.

"The bipartisan solution was the product of several months of negotiations and public hearings on how to address the historic downturn in the economy by responsibly cutting all areas of government while keeping the state's social service safety net intact," according to a statement issued by the office of the Senate's Democratic president pro tem, Darrell Steinberg.

California is not alone in its budget difficulties.

At least 12 states and the District of Columbia are confronting gaps totaling $23 billion in budgets already adopted, according to a late June report from the Center for Budget Policy and Priorities. 

Two tax plans would take a big bite from the richState budgets walloped again

Friday, July 24, 2009

State budgets walloped again

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The bad news about state budgets just keeps getting worse. Only three weeks into the new fiscal year, gaps are already opening up. And the shortfalls are only expected to grow.

"If you think legislators are breathing a sigh of relief because their budgets are passed, think again," said William Pound, executive director of the National Conference of State Legislatures.

State legislators and governors had to contend with deficits totaling $142.6 billion as they closed out fiscal 2009, which ended on June 30 for 46 states, according to the conference. Three states have yet to pass balanced budgets for fiscal 2010, as officials tussle over painful budget cuts and tax increases.

But even some states that approved budgets are going back to the drawing board as revenues drop faster and more sharply than they had estimated.

Legislators from around the country, who are meeting in Philadelphia, gathered Tuesday to discuss their common plight. Gallows humor was abundant, according to Corina Eckl, director of the conference's fiscal program.

An Arizona official joked that the state's financial plight is comparable to the Grand Canyon, while an Illinois legislator said his state's budget situation is so scary, it's best told around a campfire at night.

"The revenue forecasts are continuing to underperform even the most pessimistic of projections," Eckl said. "There's still a lot of this ahead of us."

At least 12 states and the District of Columbia are confronting gaps totaling $24 billion in budgets already adopted, according the Center for Budget Policy and Priorities, which focuses on policies affecting low- and moderate-income families and tracks state budgets.

In a sign of what other states may have to contend with, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers have reached a compromise to close a $26 billion budget gap. The spending plan, however, is anything but pretty and has raised the ire of many groups within the state.

0:00/2:13California: New Constitution

The agreement, which is being voted on Friday by the state legislature, calls for slashing $15.5 billion in spending, including some massive cuts to education, social services and corrections, as well as borrowing $2 billion from local government, shifting money from other funds and other accounting gimmicks.

Surprise revenue drops

Vermont legislators were disappointed to learn last week that a $28 million gap has opened in their $1 billion budget, which lawmakers approved in early June after overriding the governor's veto.

The state has already cut more than $100 million in spending over the last five quarters, said Rep. Michael Obuchowski, chair of the legislature's joint fiscal committee. To balance the budget, officials hiked taxes and fees by $50 million.

"We're getting to the point where we're going into the marrow," he said. "We will have to look at whole programs and furloughs. There isn't anything easy left."

Gov. Jim Douglas, who became the first Vermont governor ever to veto a budget, will propose ways to eliminate the shortfall in coming weeks, said spokeswoman Dennise Casey. The governor has criticized lawmakers for passing an unsustainable budget.

Tough decisions

Colorado officials, who finalized the state's fiscal 2010 budget in May, found out they were facing a $384 million deficit just days before the start of the new year.

"This means essential and important state services will be reduced even more, impacting the safety net that protects families in every corner of the state, and challenging our ability to invest education, health care and infrastructure," wrote Gov. Bill Ritter Jr. in a newspaper op-ed piece Monday.

Officials already squeezed $1.4 billion out of the fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2010 budgets by taking other painful steps. Among them: closing a women's prison, reducing the state's workforce, lowering rates for doctors providing Medicaid services and temporarily eliminating a senior property tax break. They also depended heavily on using federal stimulus funds, tapping into other state funds and dipping into reserves.

Even though the state has had to take these measures, Colorado has considered itself relatively lucky, said Evan Dreyer, the governor's spokesman. Though it is certainly affected by the national recession, Colorado's unemployment rate has remained relatively steady at 7.6%, nearly two percentage points below the national level.

Now, the more difficult decisions must be made. Ritter has asked all state agencies to determine how they would cut 10% of their budgets. State employees, who must take four furlough days, won't get raises before July 2011.

"Cuts in this plan will be deep and painful," Ritter said.

How has President Obama's $787 billion stimulus program affected you or your community? Are you seeing a benefit from the Making Work Pay tax cuts or the additional $25 in unemployment benefits? Are you seeing construction jobs or other stimulus-funded work in your neighborhood? Do you still have a job because of stimulus funds? We want to hear your experiences. E-mail your story to realstories@cnnmoney.comand you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

U.S. may need another stimulus - RoubiniUnemployed short on opportunities, benefits

Consumer Confidence

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in June after two straight months of gains as Americans' optimism over business and job conditions weakened.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said Tuesday its index of consumer attitudes dropped to 49.3 this month from a downwardly revised 54.8 in May. Markets were expecting a reading of 55.0 for June.

The Present Situation Index also slid to 24.8 from 29.7.

Stocks fell while the dollar rose against the euro in the wake of the consumer confidence data.

"Following the upward revision to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey, the decline in the Conference Board's Consumer Sentiment report was a big shocker," said Kathy Lien, director of FX strategy at GFT in New York.

"Despite the fact that the S&P 500 is close to 40% off its March lows, Americans grew less optimistic about present and future situations. The weaker confidence number should help the dollar recovery for the rest of the day. "

Americans saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 44.8% from 43.9% the previous month, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" slid to 4.5% from May's 5.8%.

"The decline in the Present Situation index, caused by a less favorable assessment of business conditions and employment continues to imply that economic conditions, while not as weak as earlier, are nonetheless weak," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

Those claiming business conditions are "good" slipped to 8.0% from 8.8%, while those saying business conditions are "bad" edged up to 45.6% from 44.5%. 

Leading economic indicators riseWall St. seeks to extend rally

Minimum wage hike: More money or fewer jobs?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- On Friday, the federal minimum wage rises for the third year in a row, sparking the perennial argument among economists: Will it help workers at the bottom of the ladder, or will it kill their jobs?

The U.S. minimum wage goes to $7.25 an hour, from $6.55, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Most states have their own minimum wage, and employers are required to pay whichever is higher. That means minimum wage workers will get a raise in 29 states. In the remaining 21 states and Washington, D.C., they'll see no change.

In some states, the increase will be more modest. In New York, the state minimum wage is $7.15 an hour, so workers there will be paid an extra dime an hour, which means another $4 for a 40-hour week. But in states like Georgia, Virginia and Texas, workers are paid the current federal minimum of $6.55, so they'll get the largest raise of 70 cents, which translates into a $28 bump for a full-time week, or more than $1,400 a year.

Injecting money into the economy?

Kai Filion, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, estimated that more than 2.8 million workers will have their wages lifted to $7.25 an hour on Friday. More than 1.6 million workers will also be indirectly affected, according to Filion, meaning their above-minimum wages will increase as the rising tide lifts all boats.

That adds up to nearly 4.5 million workers who would get a raise. The impact varies widely from state to state, depending on state minimum wages and population. In New York, with its $7.10-an-hour state minimum, 63,000 workers would be directly impacted, according to the EPI, compared with 632,000 workers in Texas.

0:00/0:50Minimum wage hike kicks in

"Because it's not a big increase, any impact will be modest, but it will be good," said Heidi Shierholz, a minimum wage expert with the EPI. "You're seeing people say this is a wrong time to do this, but I think that is entirely wrong-headed. They could not have planned this for a better time."

Based on Filion's estimates, the wage increase will inject $5.5 billion worth of extra spending into the economy over the next year.

"It gets additional money to low-wage workers," said Shierholz. "These are workers who are mostly struggling to get by and will spend that extra cash. This is actually stimulus."

Or fewer jobs for low-wage workers?

Back in 2007, before the current recession began, Congress passed a bill to increase the minimum wage, which was then $5.15 an hour, three times over three years.

Some economists believe that the Friday increase couldn't be happening at a worse time. The U.S. economy lost nearly 3.4 million jobs in the first half of 2009, which is more than the 3.1 million lost in all of 2008.

Suzanne Clain, professor and living wage expert at the Villanova School of Business in Pennsylvania, said that increasing the minimum wage would create additional financial hardships for employers, driving the nationwide unemployment rate above its current 9.5%.

"My feeling is that increasing the minimum wage is going to put additional strain on the economy," she said. "Additional jobs will be lost as a result. It puts stress on employers who are currently having very small profit margins."

Clain conducted an analysis showing that the 13 states with the highest minimum wage -- exceeding the upcoming federal minimum of $7.25 an hour -- experienced higher unemployment levels than the other 37 states. She said the unemployment rates were higher by an average of between 1.75% and 2% in those 13 states during the three-month period ending in May.

"Raising minimum wage rates will generally discourage businesses from employing people," Clain said. "We're already suffering from a downturn phase."

What about the waitresses?

Regardless of whether Friday's increase has a beneficial or negative effect on minimum-wage workers, there is one group that it always seems to leave behind, according to the National Employment Law Project: waiters, waitresses and other workers who rely on tips.

NELP, a New York and Washington-based advocacy group for low-wage workers, released a recent study highlighting the fact that the minimum wage for tip workers has remained frozen at $2.13 an hour since 1991. According to NELP, the buying power of this wage has fallen 36% over the last 18 years.

"This disproportionately affects women," said Raj Nayak, a lawyer with NELP. "Waiters around the country have three times the poverty level of other workers. It's hard to depend on tips."

To NELP, the solution is obvious: Raise the minimum wage for tipped workers. In the study, the group said the federal government could follow the lead of some 13 states that guarantee tipped workers 60% of the minimum wage, which was actually a federal policy until 20 years ago.

Better yet, the study suggests, the government could extend the same federal minimum wage to tipped workers as to any other wage earners, noting that this is already practiced in seven states, including California and Nevada. 

Small Wyoming bank failsUnemployed short on opportunities, benefits

Monday, July 20, 2009

Leading economic indicators rise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- An index gauging the U.S. economy's prospects increased for a third straight month in June, suggesting the recession was drawing to a close, a private research firm said Monday.

The index of leading economic indicators, which is supposed to forecast economic trends six to nine months ahead, rose 0.7% in June following a revised 1.3% gain in May, the New York-based Conference Board said.

Wall Street economists had forecast a rise of 0.5% after an initial 1.2% May increase.

Over the first half of the year, the index has increased at a 4.1% annual rate, the research group said.

"The recession has been losing steam since the spring, although very large job losses continue," Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist, said in a statement. "Nevertheless, confidence is slowly rebuilding."

"If these trends continue, expect a slow recovery this autumn," he said. 

Consumer prices rise 0.7% in JuneWall St. seeks to extend rally

Store job cuts could deepen through 2010

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail layoffs could accelerate with a vengeance over the next year as the industry struggles with a newfound frugality among Americans, continuing weakness in the housing market and thousands of auto dealerships slated to close.

"Just as the manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs for many years even as jobs in other sectors have been added, we could see the same thing occur in the retail sector as the frugal future facing the U.S. consumer keeps consumption growth below trend," according to a report this week from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

Year-over-year, the industry, which is the third biggest employer after the government and the services sector, has already lost more than 600,000 jobs. And 11% of all jobs lost so far in this recession have been retail related, according to the Labor Department.

While the best case scenario is an estimated 150,000 more store jobs shed over the next year, the report said "the potential exists for up to 600,000 additional retail jobs to be at risk."

The firm arrived at this forecast by evaluating how sales per employee have been performing across major retail categories -- including auto and parts sellers, furniture, electronics, food and beverage, clothing and general merchandise stores.

Based on that formula, a decreasing sales per employee trend raises the likelihood of potential job cuts.

Consumption drop: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Gary Bigg said in an interview that three factors will largely be responsible for the industry's shrinking labor force over the coming months.

"The sharp drop in consumption is why we think job losses will persist," said Bigg.

To his point, monthly store sales have declined for 10 of the last 13 months months as more households tighten their shopping budgets. Same-store sales measure sales at retail stores open at least a year.

Slumping sales have forced several major chains -- including Circuit City, Fortunoff and Linens' N Things -- out of business. Many other merchants are trimming their workforce to manage their expenses and stay in business through the economic downturn.

"Labor costs are a huge portions of retailers' operating costs," said Ellen Davis, vice president with the National Retail Federation, the leading retail trade group. "It doesn't make sense when sales are struggling to maintain a maintain a certain level of employment. So there is some correction happening."

0:00/2:22What you're buying now

"The housing market is still under pressure," said Bigg. Consequently, merchants that cater to home-related purchases such as furniture sellers, electronic stores and building materials suppliers "appear to have a large number of employees at risk of losing their jobs," he said.

Wait 'til '11: But Bigg expects that the majority of retail-related job cuts will occur in auto vehicles and parts dealerships that are closings as a result of General Motors and Chrysler bankruptcies.

Not surprisingly, the report showed that auto and parts sellers, furniture, electronics, clothing and building materials sellers have suffered declining sales per employees.

And only health and personal care stores, general merchandise and online sellers have seen a rising sales to employee ratio, which suggests that these sectors might be hiring in the coming months.

The real turning point will probably happen in 2011, Bigg said. "I think 2011 will be a good year for the economy. Consumer spending will increase about 1.5% in 2010 and 2% in 2011."

"The retail industry will restructure and survive just like the manufacturing industry went through tremendous restructuring in the 1980s and 1990s," he said.

"Retailers are hemorrhaging jobs right now," said Davis. "But I do think that when the economy rebounds, and sales bounce back, then retailers will need more people."

Still, retailers have to prepare for one harsh reality when the worst is behind them: "The days of shop til you drop are probably over," said Bigg. 

Music gear mecca’s siren song wanesRetail sales rise for second straight month

Recovery slow and steady - Larry Summers

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A full economic recovery may be slow to materialize, but the administration's stimulus plan is working and the economy has stabilized over the past few months, a key White House adviser asserted Friday.

Unemployment is likely to rise in the months ahead, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers warned, as the full impact of the $787 billion economic recovery plan is not likely to be felt until 2010.

Nonetheless, he said, "We were at the brink of catastrophe at the beginning of the year, but we have walked some substantial distance back from the abyss."

Business and consumer confidence have increased, he noted, and there are indications that the country's gross domestic product "is on a close to level path with prospects for positive growth to commence during this year."

The national unemployment rate is currently 9.5%, with the recession now in its 18th month.

0:00/3:14Strong earnings? So what.

As unemployment has continued to climb, the stimulus package, has come under stronger criticism from both the right and the left. Some conservatives have characterized it as wasteful and misguided, while some liberals are now claiming it was not large enough.

Summers, however, defended the plan in part by arguing that it is meeting expectations. White House and independent forecasters, he said, "predicted that only a very small part of the total job creation expected from the recovery act would take place within six months."

The recovery plan was enacted in February.

Summers highlighted a study earlier in the year from the White House Council of Economic Advisers which predicted that only 10% of the total job impact of the stimulus package would take place in 2009.

"Given lags in spending and hiring, the peak impact of the stimulus on jobs was expected not to be achieved until the end of 2010," he said.

Summers also warned that "for quite some time, the United States will be living with the consequences of an over leveraged economy."

The "common desire of households, businesses, and financial institutions to reduce their borrowing and improve their balance sheets will act as a drag on spending and growth," he said.

"While painful, these adjustments are essential to laying a sound foundation for future growth."

Summers made his remarks during an appearance at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a non-partisan think tank focused on global economic policy. 

Job GrowthTwo tax plans would take a big bite from the rich

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Housing starts surge

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Initial construction of U.S. homes and applications for building permits both surged in June, according to government figures released Friday.

Housing starts roseto a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000, up 3.6% from a revised 562,000 in May, according to the Commerce Department.

Economists were expecting housing starts to increase to an annual rate of 524,000 units, according to a consensus estimate gathered by Briefing.com.

Single-family housing starts were especially strong, up 14.4% on a month-over-month basis. It was the biggest surge in that measure, considered the core of the housing market, since December 2004.

Friday's report suggests that the battered housing market is gradually stabilizing, according to Mike Larson, real estate and interest rate analyst at Weiss Research.

"The new home industry has done a good job of reducing supply," Larson wrote in a research report. "But the existing home market is still vastly oversupplied, and we continue to be inundated with an influx of distressed and foreclosed properties."

Applications for building permits, an indicator of future construction activity, rose 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000 in June. It was the highest number of applications since December and more than the 530,000 annual rate that economists had forecast.

June marks the second month that starts have increased after the annual rate of new homes breaking ground fell to an all-time low of 454,000 units in April.

New home construction activity was strongest in the Midwest, where starts were up by 33.3% versus the previous month. In the Northeast, starts jumped 28.6% in June.

But the West and the South both saw declines in the number of new homes breaking ground last month. Starts were down 14.8% in the West and 1.4% in the South.  

1.5 million homes in foreclosure

U.S. may need another stimulus - Roubini

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- The United States may need a second fiscal stimulus worth $200 billion to $250 billion to support labor markets, leading economist Nouriel Roubini said Thursday, adding the worst of the crisis is already behind us.

Roubini, chairman of RGE Global Monitor and one of the few economists who foretold much of the current global financial turmoil, said he expects U.S. unemployment will top 10 percent by the end of 2009, weighing on domestic consumption and the retail sector.

"I think we may need in fact a fiscal stimulus some time early next year or before the end of this year," he told reporters after delivering a speech at an event organized by the Chilean government in New York.

"It might be in the $200-$250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added.

But if the next stimulus is too large, Roubini warned, financial markets would start to get worried about U.S. fiscal sustainability, with "severe" negative consequences for bond markets.

Roubini conceded, however, that "the worst is behind us in terms of economic and fiscal conditions," as the economy is still contracting but at a slower pace.

"There is light at the end of the tunnel. And for once it is not an incoming train," he earlier told investors during a presentation.

Still, developing economies in general will have a sub-par recovery during next couple of years, while emerging economies are in better shape to exit the recession faster, Roubini said. 

Fed’s independence at risk - Dodd

Job Growth

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The battered U.S. labor market took a step backwards last month as employers trimmed more jobs from their payrolls in June, according to a government report Thursday.

There was a net loss of 467,000 jobs in June, compared with a revised loss of 322,000 jobs in May. This was the first time in four months that the number of jobs lost rose from the prior month.

The June job losses were also far worse than the forecast of a loss of 365,000 jobs by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The unemployment rate rose for the ninth straight month, climbing to 9.5% from 9.4%, and hitting another 26-year high. Economists had been expecting that the unemployment rate would hit 9.6%.

Nearly 3.4 million jobs have been lost during the first half of 2009, more than the 3.1 million lost in all of 2008.

"It's not the catastrophic numbers we saw earlier this year, but they're still pretty damn lousy," said Keith Hembre, chief economist with First American Funds.

The job losses don't tell the full picture of the pain the labor market either. The average hourly work week fell to 33 hours from 33.1 hours in May, a record low in readings that go back to 1964. Average hourly wages were unchanged, so the shorter week shaved $1.85, or 0.3%, off of the average weekly paycheck.

The so-called underemployment rate, which counts those who are working part-time jobs because they couldn't find a full-time position as well as discouraged job seekers who have stopped looking for work, rose to a record high 16.5%.

0:00/1:36Unemployment's domino effect

Those who have been out of work for six months or more, many who have run out of unemployment benefits, climbed to nearly 4.4 million, also a record high.

Jared Bernstein, the chief economic advisor to Vice President Biden, said the latest figures are disappointing to the administration.

"Less bad is not what we're shooting for," he told CNNMoney.com.

But Bernstein added that the $787 billion economic stimulus package passed by Congress earlier this year has yet to have its full impact on the labor market.

"There's a lot more to go," he said. "We have to let this medicine get into the patient, let this economic activity have the job creation effects we know [are] coming."

Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest employment staffing firm, said he's concerned about continued sluggish spending by consumers, which will delay any hopes for an economic recovery.

"The 90.5% who have jobs aren't spending," said Gilliam.

But Robert Brusca of FAO Economics said the hopes for a turnaround that accompanied the previous jobs report should not be completely wiped out by the weak June report.

"It's a disappointing month but the trends are still quite positive on the whole," he said, pointing to the smaller rise in unemployment and a three-month average of job losses that continues to slow.

How high will the unemployment rate go?

Others said they see little hope for a quick turnaround in hiring or unemployment.

"The green shoots in the job market are hard to find," said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Cal State University Channel Islands. "Businesses are determined to trim costs by cutting payrolls. Employers want to make sure that a sustained economic recovery is here before hiring. The job market will become the Achilles' heel of the coming recovery."

Gilliam, Hembre and Sohn all predicted that the unemployment rate will be above 10% by the end of this year. Brusca thinks it could top out at 9.8%, but wouldn't rule out a 10% reading.

In addition to the continued job losses driving the rate higher, any signs of improvement in the economy can actually boost the unemployment rate. That's because discouraged job seekers no longer counted as unemployed return to the labor force looking for work.

"Some of the rise in unemployment towards the end of the cycle is good news," said Brusca.

The only good news reported by the Labor Department Thursday was that the number of workers filing initial jobless claims fell to 614,000 last week from 630,000 the week before. That was roughly in line with forecasts. 

Manufacturing (ISM)

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Industrial Production

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- U.S. industrial production slid a steeper-than-expected 1.1% in May from the prior month with output off sharply at factories, utilities and mines, a Federal Reserve report showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a 0.9% decline after a revised 0.7% drop in April, initially reported as a 0.5% decrease.

The data suggest that any slowdown in the pace of the recession that many economists have pointed to in recent weeks may be uneven.

The capacity utilization rate for total industry, a measure of slack in the economy, fell to 68.3%, the lowest level on records dating back to 1967. 

Manufacturing (ISM)

1.5 million homes in foreclosure

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The foreclosure plague is not going away -- it's only getting worse.

A record 1.53 million properties were in the foreclosure process -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- during the first six months of 2009. That was 9% more than the previous six months and 15% more than the same period of 2008, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac.

There were a total of 1.91 million filings resulting in 1 out of every 84 U.S. properties receiving at least one filing in the first half of the year. Banks repossessed 386,800 properties.

"What this means is, despite the intensity of the efforts on the part of government and lenders we don't have a handle on foreclosures yet," said Rick Sharga, a spokesman for RealtyTrac.

And, in a bad sign for a housing recovery, there was no recorded improvement in June, the last month of the cycle. More than 336,000 homes reported foreclosure filings, the fourth straight 300,000-plus month. Filings were up 33% over last June and nearly 5% compared with May.

"Foreclosure activity continues to increase to record levels," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac in a prepared statement. "Unemployment-related foreclosures account for much of this increased activity, and the high number of borrowers who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes' are now worth represent a potentially significant future risk."

It's the economy

The biggest problem affecting foreclosure figures is the recession. As job losses mount, more out-of-work borrowers are falling behind on payments. And home prices are still falling, albeit at a slower rate, which by itself is enough to drive more homeowners into default.

The home-price drop means more homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, owing more than their home is worth. That discourages some borrowers from repaying loans because they see it as a poor financial decision to keep paying on a declining asset.

Homeowners are apt to walk away from their mortgages once their home values fall 15% below their mortgage balances, according to recent research reported by Paola Sapienza of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, and Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

They claim that at least 25% of all mortgage defaults may be "strategic," borrowers walking away from their homes because they've lost so much value. And in many of the areas hardest hit by foreclosure, home prices have fallen by 40% or more.

Others, however, are working with their lenders, trying to get the terms of their loans modified so they can stay in their homes. But that process has been slow and infuriating to many borrowers and community activists.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the government watchdog created to manage Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), reported Wednesday that only 13,800 mortgages had been modified by Fannie/Freddie lenders in April. That is down 12% from March.

The stats did not include workouts arranged through the Home Affordable Modification Program, the administration's foreclosure prevention effort that seems to be making very slow progress.

The program, which got up to speed starting in April, has resulted in more than 200,000 trial modifications and 20,000 refinancings. But borrowers with modified loans must make three months of on-time payments before their restructuring can be recorded as a final modification.

Another reason for the slow progress, according to a research paper released by the Federal Reserve of Boston, is that some banks have some sound financial reasons to drag their heels.

Many delinquent homeowners, for example, "self-cure," that is, start paying again without assistance. In a report issued last week, the Fed found that an estimated 30% of all borrowers who miss two payments start repaying on their own.

If the lenders had modified these loans, the would have lost money unnecessarily.

A second reason, according to the report, is that so many modified loans re-default, with up to 50% of all modified mortgages succumbing.That costs the banks twice: They bear the expenses of the initial workouts and they pay again to finish the foreclosures, including any additional missed payments.

And by postponing foreclosures, lenders absorb any subsequent housing value losses. If the final repossessions are delayed a year, the lenders could be getting houses worth 10%, 20% or even 50% less than they were at the point of the original default. The banks would have been better off foreclosing then.

"We think these are very powerful forces [acting against modification]," said Manuel Adelino, one of the authors of the report.

Where the pain is

The Sun Belt suffered more foreclosures than other region during the last six months.

0:00/02:38Detroit's housing baron

California, with 391,611 filings, one for every 34 households, recorded more than any other state. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate with one for every 16 households. Arizona, one for every 30, and Florida, one for every 33, were next. Utah had the fifth highest rate at one for every 69.

Midwestern industrial states did little better with Michigan recording one foreclosure for every 74 households, seventh among the states. Illinois came in eighth with one for every 76; and Ohio, with one for every 86, was twelfth.

Georgia, at one for every 70 households, and Idaho, one for every 79, were sixth and ninth respectively. Colorado, with one for every 80, rounded out the top 10. 

Help with student loans for many, but not all

Family doctors: An endangered breed

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Luis Manriquez and Katherine Glass, both first-year students at the University of Washington School of Medicine, share a common -- and increasingly rare -- ambition. They both want to become family doctors.

"As a primary care doctor, you are a gatekeeper of the medical system," said Manriquez, 26. "Primary care is where you can have the most immediate impact in affecting patients' lives by managing their health."

Still, Manriquez realizes that he's setting himself for considerable challenges.

For one thing, as a family doctor, Manriquez will probably make one-fourth the salary of a specialist while trying to pay down $140,000 on average in medical school debt.

"That's why only the most committed pursue primary care. Kudos to them," said Jonathan Weiner, professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore.

Then there are some intangible challenges.

"Primary care physicians are considered to not do as much as specialists," Manriquez said. "People have told me that generalists are less respected as doctors."

Glass, 29, agreed. "Primary care doctors don't have a lot of status in the medical field," she said. "But I've always focused on the big picture. I want to offer my patients a more holistic picture of health versus what a specialist does."

Glass said she wants to "form a long-standing relationship with her patients and empower them to be healthy."

In the minority: Despite their noble intentions, Manriquez and Glass know that they are exceptions in an otherwise depressing situation for the nation's health care system.

In the last 10 years, 90% of medical school graduates have opted to enter higher-paid sub-specialties like orthopedic surgery, radiology and dermatology. Only 10% have chosen primary care, according to the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP).

This trend has fueled a growing shortage of primary care doctors in the United States. "On the eve of (health care) reform, we have a very real primary care crisis," said Dr. Ted Epperly, president of AAFP.

Epperly estimates that the health care system will be 40,000 doctors short of where it needs to be in the primary care arena by 2020 to support the demand for medical care.

"We need 150,000 family doctors in total by then," Epperly said.

However, his more immediate worry is what will happen to this demand-supply imbalance if President Obama's health care reform initiative is successful and 46 million more Americans get medical coverage.

"It will be total chaos," Epperly warned. "We could have a total implosion of the health care system since primary care doctors are the first point of medical contact for most people."

High debt, low pay: Some experts say the doctor shortage boils down to one basic problem -- health care's payment structure.

"A specialist can earn $500,000 or more a year and work 20 hours a week versus a family doctor who earns on average $120,000 a year and works more than 60 hours a week," said Weiner.

Medical students such as Manriquez and Glass, are keenly aware of this payment inequity given that both will incur considerable debt upon graduation.

This payment inequity has resulted in a workforce inequity. "About 70% of all doctors are specialists and only 30% are in primary care," Epperly said.

0:00/1:12Health care: Where are we now?

"The top three reasons that my clients choose specialization over primary care are financial, lifestyle and administrative," said Dr. Michelle Finkel, a former Harvard admissions officer who now is an independent consultant to students on medical school admissions.

Epperly, who is a family doctor, said primary care physicians deal with two to three times more paperwork than specialists, including filing insurance reimbursement from Medicare, Medicaid and private insurers.

"I think those applying to residency training programs are well aware of their financial burdens and some to potential lifestyle issues," Finkel said. "Still fewer may understand so early in their career the administrative challenges primary care doctors face."

Dr. Jason Dees, a family physician based in New Albany, Miss., chose family medicine in school because he wanted to "develop relationships with his patient across multiple generations."

Dees said he had to deal with school debt. But he was able to secure some funding to pay it down through state and local hospital programs -- in exchange for practicing in an underserved area in Mississippi.

"Becoming a family doctor is not an easy choice," Dees said. "The health care system is broken. I see 30 to 35 patients a day, sometimes only 7 minutes per patient.

"But we have a system that pays for volume and procedures used rather than quality of care," he added. "It's a sad comment. I am absolutely terrified that it will only get worse."

Fixes: The Obama administration's health reform proposal contains measures to correct the most obvious challenges. These include reducing medical school debt through more funding for programs such as the National Health Service Corps, revising Medicare reimbursement rates to physicians, and expanding the role of community health centers to deal with doctor shortages.

AAFP's Epperly has some other ideas.

"Information technology is at the heart of any long-term solution," he said. One way to expand the capacity of Medicare care is to encourage doctors to communicate with patients via telephone and e-mail, he said.

Some primary care doctors are already doing this -- although most insurers don't yet reimburse physicians for telephone or digital communication with patients.

Epperly also said the system must reward doctors for quality, not quantity of care. His ideal system of the future would look like this: A doctor sees 4 to 5 patients in the morning and afternoon for 30 minutes each. A doctor would also spend three hours each day commuting remotely with patients.

"But you have to align payment incentives accordingly to make this model work," he said, paying for both in-office and remote consultations.

For his part, Johns Hopkins' Weiner said policy makers have to come up smarter solutions than just creating more doctors. "The idea that we need more doctors is not so simple. Studies have shown that more doctors doesn't mean better quality of care," he said.

"The (health care) system shouldn't disadvantage you if you are trying to do the right thing and better the community," said Manriquez.

Should specialists, nurse practitioners and physician assistants be encouraged to fill in the gap left by shortage of primary care doctors? We want to hear about your experiences. E-mail your story to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

Help with student loans for many, but not all

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Fed's independence at risk - Dodd

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Tuesday that making the Federal Reserve a "systemic risk" regulator could put the U.S. central bank's independence at risk.

"I think those who are advocating the Fed's role in all of this as a systemic risk regulator ought to be prepared to then concede a good chunk of independence of the Federal Reserve," Dodd told reporters. "I think that poses some serious issues."

"If you give them that kind of authority here there will be demands for far more congressional authority over the Fed," he said.

0:00/4:59Bank regulatory maze

The Obama administration has proposed giving the Fed responsibility for supervising large, interconnected firms whose collapse could jeopardize the entire financial system as part of a broad revamping of U.S. financial regulation.

Dodd, who will play a big role in crafting regulatory reform legislation, has voiced support for the idea of establishing a council to monitor systemic risks. The Obama plan would set up a council of regulators that would help identify the firms to be regulated by the U.S. central bank.

The Fed is facing heightened scrutiny on Capitol Hill for the role it has played in bailing out financial firms.

Last week, the Fed's No. 2 official, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, told Congress efforts by some lawmakers to open up the central bank's monetary policy and emergency lending decisions to audits would raise the risk monetary policy decisions would become subject to politics. 

Small Wyoming bank fails

Retail sales rise for second straight month

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail sales rose for the second straight month in June, the government reported Tuesday, but the gains came mostly from auto purchases, higher gas prices and a modest pick up in electronics sales.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales rose 0.6% last month, compared with May's gain of 0.5%.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had been expecting June sales to increase 0.4%.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts also rose 0.3%, softer than expected, compared to a 0.5% increase in the measure in May.

Economists had forecast a gain of 0.5% in June sales, excluding auto purchases.

The report showed auto sales rose 2.3% in June while gasoline station sales jumped 5% in the month. Electronics sales rose 0.9%, while sales at sporting and music stores also increased 0.9%.

But June was a disappointment in most other retail categories. Sales at clothing sellers were flat in June versus the prior month, department store sales slumped 1.3% and sales at general merchandise stores slipped 0.4%.

Back-to-school jitters: The sales declines in these core retail sectors will likely heighten concerns about the upcoming back-to-school shopping season, which is the second most-important sales event of the year for merchants after the year-end holiday shopping period.

In that regard, the National Retail Federation (NRF) on Tuesday forecast more dour news for the industry. The trade expects expects back-to-school spending to drop 7.7% this year as more households cut back on purchases amid pay cuts and continuing job losses.

"I would expect back-to-school sales to be soft this year because there's just not a lot of support for consumers," said Adam York, economist with Wells Fargo Securities.

The biggest insecurities consumers are facing right now are weakness in the job market and weak or even declining income growth, York said.

Still, York is feeling somewhat more optimistic about the year-end holiday shopping period. That two-month period of November and December can account for 50% or more of merchants' sales and profits for the full year.

"Maybe closer to Christmas, consumers will be in better shape and they are feeling more secure about their incomes and jobs," York said. "Hopefully, we'll also see some growth in the economy or at least the end of declines by then." 

Back-to-school spending to drop 7.7%

Consumer prices rise 0.7% in June

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of consumer prices rose more than expected in June but showed the largest year-over-year decline since January 1950, the government said Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index, the Labor Department's key measure of inflation, has fallen 1.4% over the past year.

That's the largest drop in more than 59 years, and is due largely to a 25.5% over-the-year decline in the energy index.

"It's a bit of a bogus comparison, because we're comparing gas prices at nearly their astronomical peak last year," said Stuart Hoffman, economist at PNC, referring to the the-record high price of $4.114 per gallon reported on July 17, 2008.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.7% in June, after rising 0.1% the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a 0.6% increase.

That's the largest monthly increase in 11 months. CPI also rose 0.7% in July 2008, Hoffman said.

The report attributed the month-to-month increase to the gasoline index, which rose 17.3% in June. But a decline of 1.9% in the electricity index helped offset the gas price jump, causing the overall energy index to settle up 7.4%.

Core CPI and inflation: The even more closely watched core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.1% on an annual basis, after gaining the same amount in May.Core CPI increased 1.7% on an annual basis.

"It's comforting to know gas prices are the main fly in the ointment," Hoffman said. "That shows inflation is not a concern."

The July reading due next month is likely to reflect the recent decline in gas prices. According to a daily survey conducted for motorist group AAA, prices have declined 24 straight days, by a total of about 7%.

Inflationary concerns would arise if the core CPI rose 0.3%-0.4% for a few months straight, Hoffman said. Conversely, if the core stayed flat for consecutive months it would trigger deflation worries, he said.

Sector-by-sector: Most sectors saw at least a small uptick. The indexes for shelter and medical care posted slight increases in June, and indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, recreation and apparel increased at least 0.5%.

The food index, which had fallen for the last four months, was unchanged in June.

The index for airline fares bucked the trend, though, falling 0.6%.  

Inflation (CPI)

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Back-to-school spending to drop 7.7%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Back-to-school spending is set to slip 7.7% this year, according to a survey released Tuesday.

Thanks to pay cuts and job losses, cash-strapped consumers are planning to spend less on everything from pens and paper to fall clothing.

The average family with students in grades kindergarten through high school is expected to spend $548.72 on school supplies, down from $594.24 in 2008, according to the National Retail Federation.

"There's not a lot to be excited about," said George Whalin, president of Retail Management Consultants. "It's going to be very challenging for retail, for a long time."

Four out of five respondents said they have changed their back-to-school shopping strategy as a result of the ailing economy, and plan to search out more promotions and deep discounts this shopping season. According to the report, 56.2% said they are looking for sales more often, while 49.6% planned to spend less overall. About two in five said they would purchase more store-brand products and use more coupons.

In their search for bargains, consumers are getting more creative about where they intend to shop. More than 21% said they will make their school purchases at drug stores, and over 18% will go to thrift stores for back-to-school clothing.

Despite the bleak data overall, it appears that discounts will boost the electronics sector. Spending on items like computers, is expected to increase 11% to $167.84 per family.

'Don't wait too long' for sales

Almost half of respondents -- 44% -- said they will start shopping about a month before school starts, in an attempt to find early discounts and to spread their spending out over time.

Nearly one-third (31.8%) will shop 1-2 weeks before school begins, and 2.5% will wait until after the start of the year, hoping to find clearance sales and postpone spending.

But consumers should take care not to wait too long, Whalin warned, since the long-suffering retail sector has sharply cut back on inventory.

"Retail has been dealt a big blow, but they've gotten good at this," Whalin said. "They're prepared for down months, so we don't see the piles of supply that we saw a few years ago. Consumers need to get in and buy before it's gone."

Whalin noted that although some experts speculate that the current economic downturn has triggered a permanent change in consumer spending behavior, he disagrees.

"At some point, when the job situation improves, people will spend again," he said. "But the numbers don't look good, and consumer morale is low."

He added, "I spend a lot of time in stores, monitoring behavior, and foot traffic is dismal. There's just no one out there." 

Help with student loans for many, but not all

Madoff arrives at N.C. prison

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bernard Madoff, the convicted Ponzi mastermind, was transferred to a federal prison in Butner, N.C. on Tuesday, according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

"Mr. Madoff is at our facility in Butner," said Felicia Ponce, spokeswoman for the bureau. She would not say if Madoff will serve his 150-year prison term at Butner.

Madoff, otherwise known as federal prisoner no. 61727-054, was transferred to Federal Correctional Institution Butner from a medium security prison in Atlanta, according to the bureau.

0:00/1:17Madoff gets the max

FCI Butner, located north of Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill, has two medium-security prisons, a low-security prison and a medical center among its facilities. All totaled, Butner holds nearly 4,900 inmates, according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons Web site.

Prison consultants have said that he would probably serve his time in a medium-security prison because his lengthy sentence makes him ineligible for low-security.

Larry Levine, a former federal inmate and founder of Wall Street Prison Consultants in Los Angeles, said FCI Butner is sometimes used as a transfer point. He said some of his clients have stayed at Butner just long enough to receive medical and psychiatric evaluations at the medical center there.

Alvin Woodlief, mayor of nearby Oxford and a lifelong resident of the area, said Butner began as an Army training camp and prisoner-of-war facility during World War II.

It has since expanded into the modern facility that it is today, and was incorporated as a town just one year ago, he added.

"Butner is the newest town in North Carolina," he said.

Madoff was transported to U.S. Penitentiary Atlanta on Monday from the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, where he was incarcerated since March 12, when he pleaded guilty to 11 federal counts for running his massive Ponzi scheme.

U.S. Penitentiary Atlanta, home to 1,949 inmates, is a detention center for pre-trial and holdover inmates, as well as a permanent facility for long-term inmates.

Levine said some of his clients have stayed at USP Atlanta in holdover status for up to a month.

Long sentence: Madoff, 71, was sentenced to 150 years on June 29. His release date is Nov. 14, 2139.

He is also being forced to forfeit property to comply with a $170 billion legal judgment against him.

Before Madoff was sentenced, many of the thousands victimized in his scam wrote letters to Judge Denny Chin of U.S. District Court in Manhattan, describing how they were financially ruined by his scheme and requesting life in prison for the Ponzi mastermind.

Madoff's lawyer Ira Lee Sorkin, who declined to comment for this story, had requested that Madoff be sent to Federal Correctional Institution Otisville. The medium-security prison is located about 70 miles northwest of New York City, where Madoff lived in a $7 million apartment before admitting to the scheme on March 12.

The judge said that he would recommend that Madoff be transferred to a prison in the Northeast, but he did not say where.

The bureau had the final say in deciding where Madoff would live. The bureau tries to place inmates within 500 miles of their homes, and Butner meets that consideration.

Madoff's wife, Ruth, has also left the $7 million apartment. She has been allowed to keep $2.5 million which has not been connected to the Ponzi scheme.

The Ponzi connection: The Atlanta prison where Madoff was held first opened in 1902, according to Alan Ellis, a prison consultant and author of the "Federal Prison Guidebook."

Interestingly, the prison once housed Charles Ponzi, the namesake of the scheme to which Madoff pleaded guilty on March 12.

About a decade before the international postal stamp scheme that made him famous, Charles Ponzi served nearly two years at the Atlanta prison after he pleaded guilty to illegally smuggling aliens from Canada, according to the book "Ponzi's Scheme," by Mitchell Zuckoff. Ponzi was released from the facility in 1912.

-- CNNMoney staff writer Catherine Clifford and assistant managing editor Mark M. Meinero contributed to this report.  

Small Wyoming bank fails

Help with student loans for many, but not all

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The government's new student loan reform plan gets good grades from graduates with low-paying jobs struggling under a lot of debt. But it's on probation from some borrowers, including married couples and those who will be subject to a new tax liability.

The Department of Education's income-based repayment program, which went into effect July 1, is designed to make to make repaying student loans more manageable and could even result in debts being forgiven for some borrowers.

Under the program, a borrower's monthly student loan payment is tailored to their income, debt load and family size. The aim is to make loan payments less of a strain on cash-strapped households.

An unfortunate dilemma: For married couples who file taxes jointly, the program compares the couple's combined income with the individual student loan debts of each spouse. In some cases, this means one or both spouses could be ineligible for the program, since their combined income looks high relative to their individual debts.

"Married borrowers who file jointly have an unfortunate dilemma," said Lauren Asher, president of the Institute for College Access & Success, a non-profit advocacy group that seeks to make higher education more affordable. "They could face payment caps twice as high as couples that files taxes separately or (someone who) is not married."

For example, a family of four in which both spouses earn $30,000 would not qualify for the program if they each had $25,000 in student loans. That's because their individual debts are smaller compared to their combined $60,000 income.

However, an individual with $25,000 in student loans and an adjusted gross income of $30,000 could see his or her monthly payments reduced by 40% under the program.

But if a couple files taxes separately, they could miss out on other benefits meant for married couples, Asher said.

The Department of Education said it has agreed to revisit the rules for married couples and could amend the program in July 2010.

Forgive and forget?: In some cases, the program makes it possible for borrowers to have their loans forgiven after 25 years, and graduates working in public services fields could see their debts canceled after 10 years.

The potential for loan forgiveness is one of the program's main attractions. But a borrower who meets the requirements for loan forgiveness after 25 years could get hit with a bill from the IRS.

Under current tax laws, the amount of student loan debt discharged after 25 years in program is considered taxable income. For those working in public service, however, forgiven student loan debt is not taxable.

"Most people will be able to pay off their debts within the 25-year window," Asher said. "But saddling those who can't with a tax liability is unfair."

A bill working its way through Congress would make forgiven student loan debt exempt from taxation.

An improvement: To be sure, many struggling graduates will benefit from the program.

"This is really good news for consumers," Asher said. "With a simple process, a borrower can get their loan payments under control, stay in good standing and know that if they fall on hard times it won't ruin them."

Of course, making a smaller monthly payment means the life of the loan is extended, which could result in higher interest. Also, the program does not cover loans made to parents and those not subsidized by the government.

Still, the program will result in savings of $458 a month for one borrower. The 41- year-old Seattle resident, who asked not to be named, said the monthly payment on her $120,000 debt will be reduced to $451 from $909 under the new plan.

0:00/1:29How to save on student loans

"This repayment option is making my student loan seem manageable for the first time ever," the borrower said. "I was worried that I'd end up going into default over my student loans, now there's a light at the end of the tunnel."

What's more, the program could help encourage students to pursue traditionally low-paying careers in public service, such as nursing, education and the military.

"Under this new program, students no longer have to choose between serving their nation and communities and tackling a mountain of college debt," said Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., in a statement. "Our nation is better and stronger when the best and brightest young Americans choose careers in public service."

Michelle To, who will borrow $260,000 to pay her way through medical school, said the program helped convince her to become a primary care physician.

"Every doctor I've shadowed talks about being in debt for the rest of their lives," said the 24-year-old Los Angeles native. "I wasn't sure I wanted to make that step."

To, who starts medical school later this year, said she hopes to work for a non- profit organization after she graduates, and that she expects to earn about $170,000 a year. With her debt load, that means To would probably qualify for the program.

"If not for this program, I'm not sure what I would do," she said. "It's a huge weight off my shoulders." 

Small Wyoming bank fails

Monday, July 13, 2009

Manufacturing (ISM)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Manufacturing sector activity rose in June for the sixth straight month, but the index reading still indicates a contraction, a purchasing managers' group said Wednesday.

The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 44.8 in June, up from 42.8 the previous month.

The reading narrowly beat estimates from economists, who expected a jump to 44.6, according to a Briefing.com consensus survey.

The slight month-to-month improvement indicates that the rate of contraction has slowed, but not reversed itself. Manufacturing is a key indicator in gauging the strength of the overall economy.

The monthly report is a national survey of ISM members, who are purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Index readings above 50 indicate growth, while levels below 50 signal contraction. Readings below 41 are associated with a recession in the broader economy.

ISM's June report marks the 17th straight month of contraction. The index hit a 28-year low of 32.9 in December, capping 11 consecutive months of decline.

The data track new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, customers' inventories, backlog of orders, prices, new export orders, imports and buying policy.

New orders down: Of the 18 manufacturing sectors, seven reported growth -- including categories such as petroleum, chemical products and metals. The 11 that reported contraction included apparel, furniture, food and machinery.

The key new orders index fell to 49.2 in June, from 51.1. New orders are considered an indicator of manufacturing activity in the near future.

"It's bad news that new orders fell from that important 50 mark," said John Canally, Economist for LPL Financial. "It seems to be a one step forward, one step back type of recovery."

But three indexes posted significant gains. The production index jumped 6.5 points to 52.5, crossing over the 50 mark threshold into growth. The prices index rose 6.5 points to 50.

Employment: The employment index also ticked up -- by 6.4 points, to 40.7.

"It's a big improvement, but it's still not saying we're adding jobs," Canally noted.

In separate reports Wednesday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said the number of job cuts announced in June fell for the fifth straight month, for a 33% decline over the month and a 9% dip over the year. But a report from payroll firm ADP said private-sector jobs decreased by 473,000 in June.

"The 'green shoots' story is getting old," Canally said. "At this point we're asking: Are the shoots growing?"

Have you exhausted your unemployment benefits? We want to hear your experiences. E-mail your story to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

Inflation (CPI)

Small Wyoming bank fails

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bank of Wyoming was closed Friday by state regulators, bringing the total number of failed banks this year to 53, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said.

The Thermopolis, Wyo.-based bank has just one branch, which will reopen Monday as a branch of Central Bank & Trust, which is based in Lander, Wyoming. It was the first bank in that state to fail this year.

Central Bank & Trust agreed to assume all of Bank of Wyoming's $67 million in deposits and purchase $55 million of the failed bank's $70 million in assets. The remaining assets will be sold later by the FDIC.

The failed bank had about $8 million in brokered deposits, which the FDIC said it will pay directly to the brokers.

Today's failure will cost the FDIC $27 million,bringing the FDIC fund's total cost for failed banks to $12.33 billion this year. That compares with $17.6 billion in all of 2008.

The number of bank failures so far this year has more than doubled last year's total of 25, with an average of nearly 9 failures per month.

Over the next 5 years, the FDIC expects to incur roughly $70 billion in losses due to the failure of insured institutions.

Most of the banks that have failed so far this year were casualties of risky funding strategies, as well as losses on loans issued to local residential and commercial real estate developers, who were hit hard by the flagging economy. 

Inflation (CPI)

Inflation (CPI)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of prices paid by consumers showed the largest year-over-year decline since April 1950, primarily due to sinking energy prices, the government said Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index, the Labor Department's key measure of inflation, has fallen 1.3% over the past year.

That's the largest decline in nearly 60 years, and is due mainly to a 27.3% decline in the energy index.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1% in May, after remaining flat the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected a 0.3% increase.

Core CPI: The even more closely watched core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 1.8% on an annual basis.

Core CPI rose 0.1% in May compared with April, matching forecasts. It was restrained by rent costs, which rose only 0.1% -- the smallest increase since November 2004, according to Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics.

"Overall, core is subdued," Shepherdson wrote in a research note. "Expect further slowing ahead."

A related Tuesday report showed wholesale prices jumped slightly in May, but the the 5% annual rate of decline was the sharpest since 1949. Both reports seemed to allay fears of inflation and deflation in the short-term.

Energy: The energy index slipped 27.3% on an annual basis. It climbed 0.2% in May after declining the previous two months.

The gasoline index rose just 3.1% in May - "much less than we expected," Shepherdson wrote.

The mild rise in the gasoline index "merely delays the inevitable," Shepherdson warned, adding that he expects a double-digit increase in June.

Prices at the pump have increased for 50 straight days, rising 30.8% during that period, according to a separate survey for motorist group AAA.

0:00/4:36T.Boone Pickens: $300 oil

Index-by-index: The indexes for shelter, new and used motor vehicles, and medical care also posted increases in May.

Many other indices slipped. The food index decreased for the fourth consecutive month with a decline of 0.2%.

The tobacco and smoking products index fell 0.3% in May after rising sharply in the two months prior. The increase in March and April was due to an increase in the federal tax.

The indexes of public transportation and apparel also fell.