Consumer confidence plunges

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in three months in February as sentiment grew increasingly gloomy over an economic downturn that most expected to last five more years, a survey showed Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index reading of confidence for February tumbled to 56.2 from 61.2 in January.

That was the lowest since November, when U.S. stocks hit 11-year lows during one of the worst periods of the current financial crisis. A separate reading in the report showed consumer expectations fell to their lowest since May 1980.

"Confidence fell in early February as consumers came to the consensus that the economy would remain in recession throughout 2009," the report said.

"Moreover, nearly two-thirds anticipated that the downturn would last five more years."

The main index was well below economists' median expectation for a reading of 61.0 culled from 60 forecasts in a Reuters poll that ranged from 56.5 to 64.0.

Record low

The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Currently it is still near the record low of 51.7 that it hit in May 1980.

The index managed to gain in December and January, but February's fall suggested the recovery - or bottoming at least - that many economists had hoped for is now in danger.

"The index was disappointing, reversing all the gains of the past two months," said Cary Leahey, economist at Decision Economics in New York.

U.S. stocks lost more ground after the surprisingly weak report. Government bonds, a safe haven for financial markets during times of economic turmoil, pared their earlier losses.

Reflecting the grim mood, the index measuring consumers' view of the 12-month economic outlook fell to its lowest ever, to a reading of 27 versus January's 47.

Inflation outlook

The February report showed mixed views on inflation.

One-year inflation expectations plummeted to 1.6% from January's 2.2% for the lowest since November 2001, highlighting worries that the United States might be headed for a deflationary period of falling prices, wages and economic activity.

However, five-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.0% from January's 2.9%.

That was the highest since September 2008 and is consistent with concerns of some in the financial markets that massive spending and borrowing by the government to bail out the economy might prove inflationary. 


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