Consumer Confidence

According to a Briefing.com consensus survey, economists expected the index to fall slightly to 55.0 from 55.9. The index, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely monitored because consumer spending drives two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

The overall index remains at historically low levels and is the lowest since April 2009. A reading of above 90 indicates a stable economy, while 100 or greater is an indication of strong growth.

"One report does not a trend make," said Carl Riccadonna, senior economist for Deutsche Bank in New York. "This is a yellow flag but not a critical development to be sure. At economic turning points, we often show volatile fits and starts."

February's present situation index, which indicates how consumers feel about current economic conditions, hit a 27 year low of 19.4, according to the Conference Board. That means that consumers feel things are worse now than they were during the throes of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.

Riccadonna said the significant decline on the heels of three months of gains is similar to what happened after the recession of 1981-1982. At that time, the present situation index also experienced violent swings before leveling off.

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Expectations for the future also took a turn for the worse in February.The expectation index, a measure of consumer outlook over the next few months, fell to 63.8 from an upwardly revised 77.3 in January. Only 16.7% of consumers expect to see an improvement in business conciliations over the next 6 months, down from 20.7%. Some 15.3% of those surveyed expect business conditions to get worse over the next six months.

The outlook for the labor market was even more bleak. The percentage of those who expect fewer jobs to become available jumped to 24.6% from 18.9% in January. And only 9.5% of those surveyed anticipated an increase in their incomes, compared to 11.0% in January.

"Employment is the driving factor of consumer confidence," said Riccadonna, who expects the index to see a boost in March when he predicts the first positive payroll numbers.

Riccadonna cautioned against viewing this individual report as a sign of a double-dip recession, since other economic indicators such as employment and housing are showing steady signs of improvement.

For example, unemployment ticked down to 9.7% in January from 10.0% in December. And the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released today showed continued slowing in home value declines across the U.S.

"Clearly the trend of consumer confidence bears continued scrutiny," said Riccadonna. "I'm putting an asterisk by today's number. This is not an indication of double dipping, but rather typical behavior." 

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Ditched by your doctor - blame Medicare

"I have to see them. I don't have a choice" said Schreiber, a primary care physician based in North Syracuse, N.Y. "It's not a case of closing my doors to Medicare to get back at someone for cutting my salary. It's a case of economic survival."

Shreiber's eight patients are lucky, for now. Many doctors around the country are either not accepting new Medicare patients or dropping their Medicare patients altogether.

Physicians say they are shunning Medicare because they are tired of dealing with the yearly threat of a payment cut under federal law requiring that reimbursement rates be adjusted annually based on a formula tied to the health of the economy.

Shunning Medicare

Patient advocacy groups say this growing doctor boycott against Medicare is a big concern to senior citizens. Some 43 million Americans currently receive Medicare coverage.

"There's no question that a long-term solution to this situation is needed," said Marc Steinberg, deputy director of health policy with patient advocacy group Families USA. "The system that's in place doesn't create the stability that you want in a rational heath care system."

The AARP, the largest membership organization for people 50 and older, said a physicians' Medicare boycott is top-of-mind for its nearly 38 million members.

"From our perspective, the uncertainty about how much Medicare will pay doctors every year is contributing to doctors not taking new Medicare patients," said David Allen, spokesman for the AARP.

"You already have a hard time finding a doctor if you are on Medicare," said Allen. "Can you imagine the difficulty if your doctor drops you and you have to find a new one?"

Especially threatened by this backlash are baby boomers on the cusp of becoming Medicare-eligible, said Allen.

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Another 7 million Americans will become Medicare eligible over the next five years, according to the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

"You have to replace this current [Medicare reimbursement] formula," said Allen. "It's flawed. You need a system that pays doctors fairly."

Until that happens, doctors say Medicare beneficiaries should prepare themselves in case they find themselves shut out.

Steps you can take

Doctors and other health experts say there are things patients and their families can do in the event their doctor opts out of Medicare.

Ask for referrals: Doctors who drop Medicare patients typically have to give sufficient notice to their patients -- typically four weeks -- that they are changing their policies.

Also, it's good practice for doctors to provide patients with references for other doctors who are taking new Medicare patients, said Dr. Lori Heim, president of the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP).

Heim said patients can certainly ask their doctors for referrals as well as for lists of government or other medical groups in their state.

Also, get a copy of your entire medical record. Some practices can charge 75 cents per page of your record.

But doctors are not legally allowed to withhold the records if you can't pay the charge, according to Joel Greenberg, health law expert with the firm of Abrams, Fensterman, Fensterman, Eisman, Greenberg, Formato & Einiger, LLP.

Be aware of "patient abandonment" laws: This applies not just to Medicare patients. Greenberg said most state licensing laws say it is unprofessional conduct to just "abandon" a patient without sufficient notice.

"Abandonment means a physician terminates the treatment of a patient without adequate time for the patient to transition care to another appropriate physician," said Greenberg.

Further, Heim said abandonment is applicable to a patient who has seen the doctor just once or repeatedly. If a doctor is found to have abandoned a patient, then the state can either suspend or revoke a doctor's license, said Greenberg.

Access urgent care centers: These are typically free-standing health clinics or associated with a hospital.

"These may be a good stop-gap option for Medicare beneficiaries who have lost their doctors until they find another," said Heim. However, she said these centers should primarily be used for urgent care, since they are not set up to develop an ongoing relationship between doctor and patient.

Use of emergency rooms: For an emergency, go to an ER. "But this is not where you go to get your blood pressure checked and managed," Heim said.

Schreiber warned that as more doctors stop taking Medicare, it will "inevitably lead to an abuse of the ER."

Retail clinics: These are clinics in stores such as CVS (CVS, Fortune 500) and Walgreens (WAG, Fortune 500).

"We don't advise these for anything other than simple acute problems such as a sore throat," said Heim. "These clinics are not for treatment of chronic issues that elderly patients face."

Pay out of pocket. Most patients don't want to lose their doctor, so they will try to pay out of pocket, experts said. But this option is complicated, said Schreiber.

"If I have decided not to take any Medicare patient, I can't also knowingly take a new patient who I suspect is on Medicare but is willing to pay out of pocket," he said.

Despite the loss in income, Schreiber said he will continue to see Medicare patients for now, since they account for 30% of his business.

"My biggest advice to all my patients is contact your Congressman to fix this problem, soon," he said. 

Doctors threaten Medicare backlashDoctors say Medicare’s pay cuts are killing their practices

Getting a green job isn't so easy

"Major economic shifts always happen slowly," adds McClelland, who is also author of a highly useful new book, Green Careers for Dummies (Wiley, $19.99). Only about 12% of federal stimulus spending in 2009 went to green projects, she notes: "That has created a few jobs, but most green job creation is still in the future."

That doesn't mean your dream career doesn't exist, only that you may have to do some serious digging to find it -- or possibly some truly creative thinking to invent it. "This is all so new that the perfect job for you may have no formal job description yet," McClelland notes. "You need to thoroughly research your chosen field, and then analyze where your skills and experience might fit into it."

One daunting aspect of a green job hunt is that the emerging green economy is so vast and has so many different parts: solar power, green building, wilderness conservation, waste management, hydrology, public policy, and the list goes on. Green Careers for Dummies describes what's going on in each of 13 broad areas, with specific tips on how to identify opportunities in each.

In addition, check out "State of Green Business 2010," a free, downloadable report from GreenBiz.com, which gives a clear picture of recent progress in various industries (including autos, energy, and packaging). GreenBiz also runs four industry-specific sites job hunters might find helpful: ClimateBiz, GreenerBuildings, GreenerComputing, and GreenerDesign.

Since you've already pinpointed wildlife and wilderness conservation as your chosen field, you're ahead of the game. Now take a look at all of your experience, both in and outside of work, and make a list of everything you have to offer. "Pull together all of your skills and interests," McClelland says. "Then think about who might be looking for that unique combination of attributes."

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For example, with your interest in birds and corporate background in training, there might be a role for you in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The agency has a program that protects migratory birds by enforcing the North American Wetlands Conservation Act of 1989. That includes educating local communities on why their swamps are worth saving. Two other federal government agencies worth checking for information on green jobs and internships are the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency.

Although there are now more than 80 green job boards online -- among them SustainableBusiness.com, EnvironmentalCareer.com, and TreeHugger -- McClelland says that, as in the regular old job market, many great opportunities can be found only through networking.

"This is even more true for green jobs because so much of the growth in the green economy now is local. It's happening city by city, town by town," she says. "So start or expand your green network by joining local conservation groups." You can also find groups on LinkedIn and other online social networks that share your interest.

One fun way to get to know people: Find a nearby chapter of Green Drinks International, an informal network of green-minded businesspeople, academics, and others who meet in bars to socialize and share ideas. Green Drinks has chapters in 598 cities worldwide -- the San Francisco area alone has four chapters. If there are none near you, you can start one.

But before you start networking, try to identify the focus of your green job search, advises McClelland. One mistake she has seen many people make is to say to a contact, "I have this skill and that skill. Where in the green economy do you think I'd fit in?" That approach "puts too much pressure on the other person," she says.

"Instead, do enough research and self-assessment to know generally what you are aiming for and then, when you talk with people, lead with that," she advises. "If you start with what you do know, rather than what you don't know, you'll get much better results."

Talkback: Have you looked for a green job recently? What obstacles did you encounter? If you have a green job, how did you find it? Tell us on Facebook below. 

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Donald Kohn steps down from Fed

In a letter to President Obama, Kohn said it was his "great privilege" to have been part of the U.S. central bank for more than 40 years. He called his Federal Reserve colleagues "individuals of extraordinary ability" and praised their dedication to "financial and economic stability."

"At no time since the Great Depression have this ability and dedication been tested as they have been over the past several years," he said. "I am confident that history will judge the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Chairman Ben Bernanke, to have met these challenges with great speed, imagination, and effectiveness."

Kohn, who received a Ph.D. in economics in 1971 from the University of Michigan, began his career as a Financial Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in 1970.

He became a member of the Board in August 2002 and has served as its Vice Chairman since June 2006. From 1987 to 2002, he was a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is the Fed's rate setting body.

"The Federal Reserve and the country owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Don Kohn for his invaluable contributions over 40 years of public service," Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said in a statement.

"Most recently, he brought his deep knowledge, experience, and wisdom to bear in helping to coordinate the Federal Reserve's response to the economic and financial crisis," he said.

Bernanke praised Kohn for helping lead the Fed's "stress tests" of major financial institutions last year. Kohn also directed the Board's efforts to increase the transparency of the Federal Reserve, and he has been leading an international push to help central banks focus on key issues and responses to the crisis, Bernanke added.

"I would like to express my deep appreciation for Don's friendship and counsel during some very difficult times," Bernanke said. "He will be greatly missed." 

GDPPrice drop means low interest rates

How U.S. Olympians pay the rent

For every Shaun White and Lindsey Vonn, two gold medalistswho have scored multi-million dollar endorsement deals, there is a Tyler Jewell.

Jewell, a two-time Olympic snowboarder who finished 13th in Saturday's men's parallel giant slalom at the Winter Games in Vancouver, supports himself with a patchwork of odd jobs.

"I sold sausages at a state fair in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a bunch of years," he said. He's also worked at a golf course and as a concrete crew man, among other things.

"It's hard to hold down a full-time job," said the 33 year-old Boston College graduate. "I have 5 hours a day of training."

Jewell has also worked on and off at the Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) since 2004 as a part of the Olympic Job Opportunities Program (OJOP), a partnership with the U.S. Olympic Committee that paid athletes full-time salaries and benefits for working part-time hours. But the retailer folded OJOP in 2009, after four years as the exclusive sponsor.

USOC spokesman, Keith Bryant, says the organization is hoping to revive the 33 year-old program, which in the past has partnered with hundreds of companies including Anheuser-Busch and J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500).

"It's a shame that it's gone, but to have had it at all was an amazing thing," said Jewell. Without the Home Depot job to fall back on, he wonders: "how am I going to make it?"

Curling isn't cheap

Of course Jewell and most other Olympic athletes do receive some funding from the USOC, which relies on corporate sponsors and private donations. But that generally isn't enough to cover their travel, tournament, and equipment costs.

Those expenses pile up fast. Nicole Joraanstad, an Olympic curler, says a single season competing just to qualify for the Olympics costs as much as $150,000.

Joraanstad, 29, works full-time as a human resources recruiter at TDS Telecommunications in Madison, Wis., but she does have to take a lot of time to compete. She took almost four weeks off just to make her first Olympic appearance in Vancouver this year. In 2009 she used up all of her vacation time traveling to tournaments, and had to take a few weeks unpaid.

Balancing the day-to-day demands of both work and curling is tough too. During the height of her training, Joraanstad worked eight hour days, and trained another four hours a day. "I'm proud of myself. I think I handled it well," said Joraanstad.

Joraanstad was lucky enough to score her job independently, but the USOC also partners with staffing firms to help athletes secure flexible positions. The Adecco Group, a Zurich, Switzerland-based global staffing firm, renewed its contract with the U.S.O.C. through 2012. Since 2005, its Athletes Career Program has helped over 5,000 athletes worldwide.

In February, Adecco and Hilton Worldwide announced a partnership to provide U.S. Olympic and Paralympic athletes with career training and jobs in Hilton's more than 3,150 hotels and 30 corporate offices in the United States.

A tough sell

Strong work ethics and time management skills make athletes attractive to employers, says Patricia Wilson, brand director for Adecco Group North America. "Athletes know how to succeed independently, but they [also] know the importance of being a team player," she said.

Still, athlete workers, who often travel for two to three months at a time, are a hard sell in an economy with 9.7% unemployment.

Winter athletes have the hardest schedules, since their sports are more popular outside of the United States. The women's curling team, for example, had nine curling tournaments between September and January, eight of which were in Europe and Canada.

"It's definitely more challenging, especially in an economy in which companies are asking less people to do more," said the USOC's Keith Bryant.

"We're asking companies to take athletes with great transferable skills, but that need flexibility [in their schedules]. It takes a special organization to help athletes to get these assignments."

What's worse is that the United States won't host an Olympic winter or summer event for some time, pushing U.S. athletes further out of the spotlight.

"Athletes fade from attention in off-Olympic years," said Bob Dorfman, an endorsement expert and executive creative director at Baker Street advertising and marketing agency. "But they still have to support themselves."  

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GDP

The report is another sign that the U.S. economy has pulled out of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. The solid growth, the best improvement for the U.S. economy in more than six years, follows a 2.2% annualized increase in the third quarter. Most economists now agree that the recession probably ended at some point last summer.

Still, the strong end of 2009 wasn't enough to make up for the even larger declines in the first half of the year. For the full year, GDP fell 2.4%, the biggest decline in the annual reading since 1946.

The recovery is widely perceived as fragile. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified to Congress this week that the central bank will need to keep interest rates low in order to support the economy.

The recovery is even less apparent to the typical American. Job losses have continued in all but one month and most economists believe unemployment will stay close to 10% for much of the year.

Credit remains tight for small businesses and consumers and the recovery in housing prices is uneven at best. The most recent survey of 5,000 American consumers by the Conference Board found the greatest level of worry about the current state of the economy in 27 years.

"The fourth quarter GDP revision tastes great, but is less filling," said Robert Dye, senior economist of PNC Financial Services Group. "We need the meat and potatoes of private-sector job creation in order to sustain this recovery."

This GDP reading showed consumers still very much on the sidelines, as spending by individuals increased at a far more modest 1.7% annual rate in the quarter. Instead, it was businesses and the federal government that led the way on growth.

More than half the growth in the quarter was due to the fact that businesses were no longer slashing inventories the way they did in the first three quarters of the year. Spending on equipment and software, often seen as a proxy for business investment, grew at an 18.2% rate in the period.

Nondefense spending by the federal government grew at an 8.3% rate. But budget-strapped state and local governments cut spending at a 2% rate, while defense spending fell 3.5%, leading to a decline in overall government spending.

A 22% rise in exports also was a major contributor to growth.

The lift from the rebuilding of inventories and the government stimulus package passed last year is expected to wane later this year, meaning growth will likely slow to a more modest rate. Economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics forecast 3.1% growth this year and 3.2% in 2011. 

GDPYear-end economic spurt shows signs of sputtering

Retail Sales

The year-to-year increase was more impressive. January retail sales jumped 4.7%, compared to the same month in 2009.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and related reports such as retail sales are used to gauge whether a recovery is underway.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts rose 0.6% last month. A consensus of economists had projected ex-auto sales to rise 0.5% in January.

"This is decent news considering just how bad the labor market is," said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo. "We had gains in most of the categories and the real strength was in general merchandise sales, so it looks like the consumers are just out there shopping again."

General merchandise store sales rose 1.5% in January, rebounding from a 1.1% drop in the prior month, and department store sales were up 0.2% after a 0.4% decline in December.

Non-store sales, which include online retailers, jumped 1.6% last month, following a 2.2% increase in December.

"We saw a good game in online sales, but it's in line with what's been going on," said York. "February online retail sales will be interesting, because we'll see if people were shopping from home while they were snowed in."

While retail sales in February may be weak given the recent snowstorms in the Northeast, he said he expects sales to improve further into the year.

"We're looking for fairly modest gains in personal consumption and sales, but consumers are not going to come roaring back," he said. "With the weakness in the labor market, it's going to be difficult to see a sustained growth path in consumption."

In a separate report earlier this month, sales tracker Thomson Reuters, which looks at monthly same-store sales for 30 chains including Costco (COST, Fortune 500) and Target (TGT, Fortune 500), said January sales rose 3.3%, beating analyst expectations.  

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