Forecast says recession is imminent

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "It's either just begun, or it's right in front of us," said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of ECRI. "But at this point that's a detail. The critical news is there's no turning back.

We are going to have a new recession." Print Comment The ECRI produces widely-followed leading indicators which predict when the economy is moving between recession and expansion. Achuthan said all those indicators are now pointing to a new economic downturn in the immediate future. His recession call puts him ahead of most other forecasters. A CNNMoney survey of economists this week pointed to a one-in-three chance of a new recession in the next six months. The most bearish predictions put the odds at 50-50. Achuthan said it is still possible that the recession will be mild this time, lasting less than a year with relatively limited job losses. But he said if there are shocks to the system, such as another financial meltdown due to the European sovereign debt crisis, it could become a very serious and deep recession. His call comes the day after the government's final report on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, showed weak growth of only 1.3% in the three months ending in June. Achuthan said he's confident that the recession either began in the third quarter, which ends today, or will begin in the fourth quarter. The average American is already more bearish than most economists. A CNN/ORC International poll shows 90% of those polled believe current economic conditions are poor. 0:00 / 2:53 Roubini: Double dip more likely The last recession, which caused the U.S. economy to shrink by more than 5%, lasted from December 2007 through June 2009, and was the nation's longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression. The recovery that followed has been relatively weak, and if Achuthan's forecast is correct, short. Only once in the last 50 years has a period of expansion lasted less than three years. That poses a threat to the economy, since it makes it less likely the labor market will be able to recover the jobs lost during a recession before falling into a new period of job losses. "The reason some people feel like the previous recession never ended is no mystery; the jobs that were lost have not been recovered," he said. "But we've added more than 1 million jobs in the last year, which only happens if we're in a recovery. If you think this is a bad economy, you haven't seen anything yet." The official word on when recessions begin or end comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research, which has a committee that weighs economic data. But since the committee must wait for final revisions of the data, a call on the start or end of a downturn typically comes a year or more after it actually takes place. 

Financially-strapped cities cut jobs, services

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Belt-tightening continued in cities across the United States in 2011, as fiscal crunches forced local governments to cut back. City revenues are projected to decline 2.3% by the end of 2011, according to a new report from the National League of Cities released Tuesday, marking the fifth straight year of declines. One of the main factors contributing to the decline in revenue is a drop in property tax collections, which are projected to fall by 3.7% in 2011, the second straight year of declines. Last year's drop of 2.0% was the first year-over-year decline in city property tax revenues in 15 years. To make up for the shortfalls, cities reported numerous job cuts, canceled infrastructure projects, cuts in services like libraries and parks and recreation programs, and modified health care benefits for employees.

Print Comment Hiring freezes were the most common personnel-related cuts made in 2011. Half of cities reported salary reductions or freezes and nearly one in three cities reported laying off employees or reducing health care benefits. Other actions included early retirements and furloughs. The staffing cutbacks are resulting in a significant reduction in the size of local government workforces. The August jobs report from the Labor Department revealed that local government employment in the U.S. had declined by 550,000 jobs from peak levels in 2008. U.S. cities ended 2010 with the largest year-over-year reductions in general fund revenues and expenditures in the 26 year history of the survey, the NLC reports. But while city finance officers still have negative perceptions of the economy, they are not necessarily getting worse. From 2009 to 2010, 87% said their cities couldn't meet fiscal needs, compared to 57% in 2011. 

Chris Christie axes Jersey Shore tax credit

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie cut tax credits for MTV's hit show Jersey Shore. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Hey Snooki, you're not welcome on the Jersey Shore. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie cut $420,000 in tax credits Monday that would have gone to 495 Productions, the company responsible for bringing the escapades of "Pauly D" and "The Situation" to the masses via MTV.

Print Comment Christie has two concerns: He doesn't care for the tax credit program, and he really doesn't like how Jersey Shore depicts the state. And that means no more "Snooki subsidy." "I am duty-bound to ensure that taxpayers are not footing a $420,000 bill for a project which does nothing more than perpetuate misconceptions about the state and its citizens," Christie said in a statement. That's not all. The governor also has what his office called "long held, serious concerns" about the value of the entire New Jersey Film Tax Credit Transfer Program, a $10 million effort designed to bring more film and television production to the state. In a letter sent to the New Jersey Economic Development Authority, Christie said that he has "no interest in policing the content of such projects," and that the state must ensure "our limited taxpayer dollars are spent on programs and projects that best benefit the state." Christie's office said the tax credits would have covered production in 2009, when the show was based in New Jersey. The show -- one of MTV's biggest hits -- decamped to Italy for its most recent season. 

Jobs Growth

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- So much for getting Labor Day weekend off to a good start. The economy added no jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Print Zero, zilch, nada. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. "We expected a weak report, and what we got was even weaker," said Patrick O'Keefe, director of economic research at J.H.

Cohn. The report was partially helped by 22,000 state workers in Minnesota returning to work after a temporary government shutdown in July, but was also hurt by 45,000 Verizon workers on strike in August. Adjusting for those events, the economy probably added more like 23,000 jobs in August -- still dismal compared with monthly gains of about 200,000 earlier this year. Focusing on the one-time blips is like giving a skunk a dinner mint, O'Keefe said. "It's still a skunk and it still stinks." Economists typically estimate the nation needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth alone. It needs even stronger growth to recover the 8.8 million jobs lost during the financial crisis. Surprising six-figure salaries Weak hiring in August was hardly a surprise. The month started with Congress haggling about the debt ceiling, Standard & Poor's downgrading the United States credit rating and the stock market zigzagging. Consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level since the recession, and fears of an even weaker economy likely kept employers on the sidelines, instead of hiring. Temporary factors: The Verizon strike temporarily deflated the job figures because union workers walked off the job during the week that the Labor Department collected payroll data from companies. Even though they have since returned to work, they still won't be included in the official national tally until the government releases its September numbers on Oct. 7. 0:00 / 2:16 Grandpa still works, kids can't find jobs Similarly, Minnesota workers who had been out of work temporarily during a government shutdown in July, showed up again in the August report, clouding the overall reading even further. Expecting those distortions, a CNNMoney survey of 21 economists had predicted the economy would add 75,000 jobs in August. They also expect job growth to remain weak for the rest of the year, with the economy adding an average of 110,000 jobs each month and the unemployment rate barely ticking down to 8.9%. The White House said yesterday that it predicts the unemployment rate will remain stubbornly high, not falling below 6% until 2017. Check the unemployment rate in your state Who is unemployed? About 14 million Americans remain unemployed and 42.9% of them have been out of work more than six months. Blacks have it the worst, with an unemployment rate at 16.7% -- its highest level since 1984. The unemployment rate for Latinos was unchanged at 11.3% and the unemployment rate for whites fell slightly to 8%. Another 2.6 million people were considered "marginally attached" to the workforce in August. They wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the last year, but were not counted in the unemployment figures because they weren't actively searching for a job in August. Overall, the so-called under employment rate, which includes those people, as well as people who want to work full-time but are forced to work part-time, rose to 16.2%. The last time the government reported exactly zero jobs added in a month was in February 1945. Have you run out of unemployment benefits? How are you surviving? Send an email to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be profiled in an upcoming piece on CNNMoney. Please include your phone number. For the CNNMoney Comment Policy, click here.  

Home Prices

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Home prices made a comeback during the second quarter, but the struggling housing market isn't out of the woods yet. Prices rose a substantial 3.6%, compared with the three months ended March 31. But home prices are still down 5.9% compared with the second quarter of 2010. Print The rise in home prices came after three consecutive quarters of drops, as reported by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index -- an influential gauge of residential real-estate markets. The year-over-year decline was a bit more than the than the drop of 4.7% that had been forecast by a consensus of experts at Briefing.com.

A separate monthly index of home prices in 20 major metro areas also reported a month-over-month gain of 1.1% for June, and a drop of 4.5% year-over year. America's Best Places to Live The quarter-over-quarter price increase may be the last one for a while, according to Stan Humphries, chief economist for real estate website Zillow ( Z ). He expects prices will weaken again due to economic woes. "The August turmoil of credit rating downgrades, negative GDP revisions, stock oscillations and European debt woes are likely to leave a mark on both August home sales and home value appreciation," Humphries said. 0:00 / 4:14 Band-aids and gum won't fix economy The economic woes already seem to have affected new homes sales, which declined in July. Real estate gurus have been pushing back forecasts for a housing market recovery. Even mortgage interest rates hitting new lows in August failed to move many potential homebuyers. The number of people applying for loans to purchase homes dropped nearly every week during the month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. None of the 20 cities coverted in the report recorded price decreases in June: 19 posted gains and one, Portland, Ore., was flat. The biggest gains were made by Chicago and Minneapolis, which were both up 3.2%. Boston prices were up 2.4% and Washington's rose 2.3%. The 20-city index is at approximately the same level it stood at in June 2003, following a roller-coaster ride of big gains and losses. The index peaked in mid-2006 and is down nearly 32% from that high. Anthony Sanders, a real estate professor at George Mason University, called the latest gains a "blip." "I would take it with a grain of salt," he said, "and I'd be very surprised if, come fall, the increases continue." Hi attributed some of the improvement to a change in the mix of homes being sold. There are more short sales these days -- up 19%, according to RealtyTrac -- compared with sales of properties repossessed by banks. That would be enough to account for much of the quarterly increase in the Case-Shiller index. 

Bill Clinton's new book: A plan for the economy

0:00 / 10:49 Bill Clinton: How to create jobs now NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Former President Bill Clinton has a plan to put the country back on track, and he has written a book about it. Titled "Back to Work," the book includes specific ideas about getting Americans working again. Among the topics Clinton tackles are how to increase lending, support new businesses, jumpstart the beleaguered manufacturing sector and double exports, according to a statement released Thursday by publisher Knopf. Print Comment "I wrote this book because I love my country and I'm concerned about our future," wrote Clinton. "America at its core is an idea -- the idea that no matter who you are or where you're from, if you work hard and play by the rules, you'll have the freedom and opportunity to pursue your own dreams and leave your kids a country where they can chase theirs." The book will go on sale Nov.

8, with a price of $22.95, according to Paul Bogaards, spokesperson at Random House, Knopf's parent company. The first printing will run 300,000 copies. Knopf declined to disclose how much Clinton will get as an advance for the book. But if his past is any indication, the deal will be pretty flush. Clinton was reported to have been paid an advance of $10 million to $12 million for his his autobiography, "My Life," in 2004. Clinton supports President Obama's focus on green technology, to support both the U.S. economy and the nation's security. He has also promoted the America's need to spend on infrastructure -- airports, trains, roads and bridges. "There is no evidence that we can succeed in the twenty-first century with an antigovernment strategy," wrote Clinton, "with a philosophy grounded in 'You're on your own' rather than 'We're all in this together.'" 

Retail Sales

Consumer spending was flat in August compared to the month prior. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Consumers kept a firm grip on their wallets in August, threatening to stall further the already slowing economic recovery. Retail sales were unchanged in August, less than the 0.2% increase that economists were expecting, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com. Print Also, the boost in retail sales reported in July was revised to be slightly less than originally reported. Retail sales in July were cut to up 0.3% from the 0.5% gain initially posted.

"After relatively strong sales in the prior two months, August sales were flat -- a disappointing result even compared to already subdued expectations," said Jim Baird, partner and chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a research note. And the weakness is here to stay. When consumers don't have jobs, they don't spend money. "Recent softness in the employment market is impacting consumer confidence and increasingly contributing to a reining in of spending habits," said Baird. 0:00 / 0:57 Lululemon stock goes, 'Down dog' Compared to the same time a year ago, retail sales are still 7.2% above the same time last year. That is important because consumer spending is especially critical for the economy and its recovery, accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity. Sales excluding the volatile autos and auto parts sector were up 0.1% in August compared to the previous month, less than the 0.3% bump economists were expecting. If consumers keep their wallets shut, as they did in August, the economy is going to struggle to climb out of its current sluggish pace. Dear Mr. President... "The slowdown in the economy in recent quarters is increasingly apparent, and risk is increasing that the growth could be further curtailed if consumers continue to save more and spend less," said Baird. As shoppers hit the stores for back-to-school shopping in August, sales in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores increased slightly compared to July, as did shopping in electronic and appliance stores, and in grocery stores. Meanwhile, shoppers pulled back on sales in clothing and clothing accessory stores in August, compared to the previous month. "With zero jobs created in August and job growth over a multi-month period at a snail's pace, there is an increasing sense that the economy has slowed to the point that it would take little to tip into contraction," said Baird.  

FedEx stock plunges, lowest level since 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- FedEx ( FDX , Fortune 500) stock fell to its lowest level since December 2008 on Thursday. Shares tumbled after the package delivery company warned investors that it expects to earn less than it previously thought for the current fiscal year due to a weak economy and a drop in demand, particularly in Asia. Print Comment FedEx stock was down to $66.19 a share, an 8.8% decline. The Memphis-based company projected earnings to be $6.25 to $6.75 per share for fiscal 2012, compared to the previous full year forecast of $6.35 to $6.85 per share. "The U.S.

and global economy grew at a slower rate than we anticipated during the quarter," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer.  

Read the Fed statement

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- This is the statement of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting released September 21, 2011. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Print Comment Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.

However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed needs a little help from its friends To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate. To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. GOP to Bernanke: No new stimulus The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions -- including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time. 

Existing home sales jump in August

Sales of existing homes jumped 7.7% in August and were up 18.6% compared to the same time a year ago, a report said. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Home buyers are starting to creep back into the housing market, lured by rock-bottom prices. Sales of existing homes rose 7.7% last month to an annual rate of 5.03 million homes, from 4.67 million homes in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. Print Comment Economists had expected August sales to come in at a rate of 4.7 million homes, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com. Home prices have cratered since the start of the recession, and mortgage rates have also been very low.

Last week, 30-year mortgages hit a record low. "All year, the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income has been hovering at historic highs, meaning the best housing affordability conditions in a generation," said Ron Phipps, president of NAR, in a written statement. Compared to a year ago, the rate of home sales has surged 18.6% from a lethargic 4.24 million homes. Sales have picked up as home prices have fallen. The median price for an existing home was $168,300 in August, down 5.1% from a year ago. 0:00 / 2:11 Million dollar homes the middle class can afford But home buyers are still struggling against a very tight credit market, as banks have pulled back on lending. "The biggest factors keeping home sales from a healthy recovery are mortgages being denied to creditworthy buyers, and appraised valuations below the negotiated price," said Phipps. He recommended that community banks and small regional banks might be the best option for a prospective home owners. Rising costs of renting are also drawing Americans into the home buying market, said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a written statement. 25 Best Places to Retire And still other buyers walked back into the housing market in August to protect their assets from market volatility. "Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties," said Yun. "In addition to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation." Ian Shepherdson, Chief U.S. Economist at High Frequency Economics said in a research note that the rise in home sales in August is attributed to pent-up demand and says it's nothing to be celebrated. "This is all welcome, but it should not be mistaken for evidence that a real recovery is beginning," he said. 

IMF warns economy in 'dangerous new phase'

IMF director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Woodrow Wilson Center in her first public address since her appointment Sept. 15, 2011. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global growth outlook, warning that "the global economy is in a dangerous new phase." The IMF, a global financial institution comprising 187 nations, released excerpts from the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook Tuesday, ahead of its fall meeting in Washington this weekend. Print It now expects the world's economic output to increase 4% in both 2011 and 2012, compared with growth of 5.1% in 2010. In June, the IMF had forecasted slightly more robust growth rates of 4.3% for this year.

The IMF also sharply reduced its forecast for economic growth in the United States this year to 1.5%, down from 2.5% in June. It also lowered its expectations for growth in 2012 to 1.8% from 2.7%. "Overall, global growth is continuing, but slowing down," IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said in a speech last week. "The advanced countries in particular are facing an anemic and bumpy recovery, with unacceptably high unemployment." Greece: Is this the end game? While the IMF expects the global economy to chug along at a sluggish pace, the fund said there are a number of risks that could tip the United States and Europe back into a recession. Lagarde has urged global leaders to take "collective, bold action" to prevent major economies from stalling. In its report, the IMF called on European Union policymakers to quickly implement measures proposed in July to contain the eurozone's debt crisis. The fund said euro area nations must honor commitments to enact long-term fiscal reforms and the European Central Bank should lower interest rates if the crisis continues. Taxes and debt: Left and right dare to agree Meanwhile, the IMF urged officials in the United States not to harm the nation's economic recovery by cutting public spending too aggressively in its effort to bring down deficits. "There is a serious risk that hasty fiscal cutbacks will further weaken the outlook without providing the long-term reforms required to reduce debt to more sustainable levels," said the IMF in its report. The United States is also facing increased risks from the weak housing market, as well as deteriorating consumer and business confidence. On top of that, government leaders did little to inspire confidence during last month's deficit debate. 0:00 / 2:50 Obama: 'This is not class warfare!' "Deep political divisions leave the course of U.S. policy highly uncertain," said the IMF. The IMF said the Federal Reserve, which starts a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, should be prepared to provide additional support for the economy if conditions worsen. After emerging from the 2008 financial crisis and recession, the global economy was hit by a series of shocks in the first half of 2011. The devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan caused widespread supply disruptions and the Arab spring political uprisings led to a spike in oil prices. But those temporary shocks have given way to more fundamental issues, including unsustainable levels of debt and poetical challenges to resolving long-term deficit problems. "The structural problems facing the crisis-hit advanced economies have proven even more intractable than expected, and the process of devising and implanting reforms even more complicated," the IMF stated. In the developing world, the IMF expects economic growth to remain robust, albeit with increased risks. China, the world's second-largest economy, is forecast to expand at a blistering 9.5% rate this year. But the IMF lowered its 2012 outlook for China to 9% from 9.5%, citing declining foreign demand and government policies aimed at preventing a hard landing following a period of rapid expansion. 

How global trade can rein in health costs

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Jagdish Bhagwati is University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. The notion of international trade in health care may seem strange. The issue may also seem far removed from the current policy preoccupations in Washington. Print However, we believe it is finally time trade played a central role in the current debt debate.

One of the basic facts that the congressional super committee must confront is that the debt problem is not excessive current deficits, but rather a problem with the longer term budget. And the main reason for the large projected deficits well into the future is the growth in health care costs. Public sector programs like Medicare and Medicaid will be increasingly unaffordable. The health care system must be reformed -- no easy task. President Obama and Congress sought to do it last year. But it remains to be seen how much the Affordable Care Act will accomplish, if Congress even allows it to take effect. With the future uncertain, anything that we can do to contain costs significantly in other ways must be exploited. National debt: What you need to know We have a partial solution: medical trade, or allowing Americans to take advantage of different forms of international transactions in medical services. The fact that medical care of comparable quality is available at much lower prices elsewhere in the world can be used to rein in costs in the United States. The idea holds remarkable promise. Here's how it could work. Patients go overseas for major medical procedures: Modern medical facilities in Thailand, India and other countries would allow patients to have procedures like heart bypass surgery for tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars less than in U.S. facilities. Medicare and Medicaid could allow patients to use such facilities. The savings to these programs could be split between the patient and the government. This might mean tens of thousands of dollars for both, even after covering travel costs. Buy into other countries' health care systems: Many retirees have family or emotional ties to other countries. They can be given the option to use their Medicare to buy into the health care systems of Canada, Germany or whatever country they choose. In effect, the money that the U.S. government would have spent on the beneficiary's Medicare would instead be paid to another country's government so that it would provide medical care. The difference in the cost of care, which could run into tens of thousands of dollars a year, would be split between the U.S. government and the beneficiary. Import doctors: The United States could benefit by making it easier for foreign physicians to practice in the United States. This could be done with greater standardization and transparency in testing procedures. Foreign doctors would still have to meet U.S. standards, but they could train and test for a license in their home countries. 0:00 / 4:26 Bill Clinton: Health care can't devour economy A greater supply of doctors would reduce physicians' compensation in the United States -- and bring it closer to the levels in other wealthy countries. This would also ease the other problem with last year's health reform law: While it brings almost all people into insurance coverage, it doesn't do enough to ensure that those people will find medical personnel who will treat them! Medical trade where we "export" patients and "import" doctors -- just two ways of exploiting medical trade -- may seem a strange way to fix the U.S. health care system. But it is clearly an important avenue that has so far not been taken seriously. We are used to the notion that competition generated by trade helps consumers and disciplines producers. For example, Japanese competition led to lower car prices and better quality, although people can differ on how they view its impact in lowering wages for domestic auto workers. International competition can have the same effect on the health care industry. It offers a route around the political power of the health care industry that may succeed in making health care in the United States affordable. 

IMF chief: Advanced economies crushed by debt

Christine Lagarde, director of the IMF, says debt is crushing advanced nations. WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde sounded the alarm Thursday that global economies are in a "dangerous phase," in her first major speech in Washington since taking over as fund chief. "Exactly three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the economic skies look troubled and turbulent as global activity slows and downside risks increase," Lagarde said. "We have entered a dangerous new phase of the crisis. Without collective resolve, the confidence -- that the world so badly needs -- will not return." Print Comment Lagarde described how advanced nations are crushed by debt, with bad investments on the balance sheets of European banks and U.S.

households in terms of mortgages. She said that weak balance sheets and weak growth are "feeding negatively on each other," fueling a global crisis in confidence, which is responsible for curbing demand, investment and job creation. "This vicious cycle is gaining momentum and, frankly, it has been exacerbated by policy indecision and political dysfunction," Lagarde said. Lagarde is the former finance minister of France. She took over management of the IMF from Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned after facing sexual assault charges in New York that were dismissed last month. There's a lot at stake for the IMF and Lagarde, who is the first woman to run the global financial institution. The IMF faced criticism at the height of the financial crisis for being complacent in the years leading up to it. It failed to persuade the United States and European nations to crack down on rampant speculation and leverage. But Largarde's speech aims to be bold, warning of certain doom if nations don't work together to clear balance sheets, reform their financial systems and rebalance global demand. "Without collective, bold, action, there is a real risk that the major economies slip back instead of moving forward," she said. She also took a swipe at U.S. politicans who delay tough economic decisions, such as tax hikes, until the next election, saying "they have to extend their agenda to beyond the next election." Lagarde also highlighted an-often overlooked problem that she says is feeding into global economic problems: Social tensions. Lagarde said such tensions have been brewing from long-term, entrenched unemployment -- especially among the young -- as well as perceptions that Wall Street was given priority over Main Street in the attempt at economic recovery. "These issues add more fuel to the confidence crisis," she added. As for solutions, she said the first thing nations need to do is cut deficits, but to do so in a way that doesn't threaten recoveries. 0:00 / 2:30 Greece: The great, global warning? Lagarde took U.S. policymakers to task, suggesting they haven't done enough to deal with the mortgage crisis to help lift households from mountains of debt. "It is important to relieve overburdened households through actions like more aggressive principal reduction programs, or helping homeowners take advantage of low interest rates," she said. Other solutions lie in reforms to financial sectors. Lagarde praised moves to force banks to hold bigger capital cushions. But she said nations still have too many differences when it comes to dealing with bank "supervision, cross-border resolution, too-important-to-fail, and shadow banking systems." She said another important solution is global rebalancing, with emerging markets doing their part to contribute to "providing the demand needed to power the global recovery." She stopped short of pointing fingers at any one nation, but China has faced such criticism over the years. "This lack of sufficient rebalancing hurts everyone," she said. "If the advanced economies succumb to recession, the emerging markets will not escape. Nobody will. Rebalancing is in the global interest, but it is also in the national interest." 

Bloomberg: Jobs crisis could spark riots here

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, shown here during his September 11 tenth anniversary address, fears that joblessness could lead to riots. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is worried that high U.S. unemployment could lead to the same kind of riots here that have swept through Europe and North Africa. "You have a lot of kids graduating college, [who] can't find jobs," said Bloomberg, during his weekly radio show on Friday. "That's what happened in Cairo.

That's what happened in Madrid. You don't want those kinds of riots here." Print That was the mayor's response when asked about the poverty rate, which rose to 15.1% in 2010, its highest level since 1993, according to census data released Tuesday. About 46.2 million people are now living in poverty, 2.6 million more than last year. "The public is not happy," he said. "The public knows there is something wrong in this country, and there is. The bottom line is that they're upset." Riots have gripped various countries in European cities, including Athens and London, fueled by young people infuriated by high unemployment and austerity measures, which in some cases has led to looting. High unemployment among youth is also one of the driving forces behind the Arab Spring, as impoverished protestors in North Africa and the Middle East rose up against their heavy-handed governments. "The damage to a generation that can't find jobs will go on for many, many years," said Bloomberg. The mayor, an independent, criticized the partisan politics that have stymied progress in Congress, and the inability of Republicans and Democrats to compromise on ways to fix the economy. 0:00 / 3:51 Business lobby rips Obama Jobs Act "There is no overnight solution," he said."You look at the president's proposals. At least he's got some ideas on the table, whether you like those or not." "The only way you solve this problems is that everybody pays a little more and everybody gets a little less," he added. The economy added no jobs in August, according to the Labor Department, for the first time since February, 1945. The unemployment rate is 9.1%, but many experts say that figure is misleading. They prefer to use the so-called under employment rate, which includes people who have given up their search for jobs as well as people who want to work full-time but are forced to work part-time. The underemployment rate is 16.2%. 

Obama to lay out debt reduction plan

President Obama is expected to lay out his preferred options for debt reduction on Monday. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- President Obama's debt reduction plan is set to land Monday in the laps of the 12 members of the Congress' bipartisan debt committee. In recent weeks the president has said his plan would offer specific proposals that can achieve savings "more ambitious" than the committee's $1.5 trillion target. He said it would be "balanced," involving both spending cuts and tax increases. And he promised it would "stabilize debt in the long run." Print But those phrases offer wide berth for interpretation.

"Ambitious is in the eye of the beholder," said longtime budget expert Stan Collender. "[Is it] ambitious because you use the word 'Medicare' twice in your proposal? Or is it ambitious because you call for savings over eight years instead of 10?" What seems a sure bet, though, is that Obama's plan won't satisfy everyone. Democrats will want him to go light on entitlements, especially since many felt the president caved too easily in failed debt negotiations with Republicans this summer. And they'll want to see tax increases on high-income earners. The GOP wants to hold the line against any revenue increases and instead lean solely on spending cuts. Debt committee urged to 'go big' And serious fiscal experts, meanwhile, know that meaningfully and credibly reducing the debt will require crossing everyone's lines in the sand. What "ambitious" may mean: Back in April, Obama released a debt reduction framework that would save $4 trillion over 12 years. That's the minimum amount fiscal experts say is needed to stabilize debt as a percentage of the economy over a decade. What most observers expect is that his plan on Monday will top the debt committee's $1.5 trillion, but by how much isn't clear. "Three trillion would be tremendous," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 0:00 / 2:00 Obama's jobs speech in 2 minutes But hitting that target almost certainly means tackling entitlements and tax reform. And in both cases expectations aren't high. Obama promised in his jobs speech last week that his plan would include "modest adjustments to health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid." Some have taken that to mean that he may recommend savings in the program's administration and payment reimbursement rather than changes to benefits directly. Recently the White House has made clear that the president's plan will not include Social Security. "It is not a driver of our near-term deficit problems, and it can be pursued on a parallel track," White House spokesman Jay Carney said Thursday. Many Democrats' blood pressure will hit the roof if Obama proposes raising the eligibility age for Medicare Fiscal hawks, on the other hand, would applaud an increase in the retirement age for both Medicare and Social Security because if done gradually and in a way that protects workers in physically demanding jobs, it's a comparatively easy way to contribute to the programs' long-term solvency. In terms of tax reform, the president may outline what he could support but without many specifics. If he offers any, said Sean West, a U.S. policy analyst at Eurasia Group, he might endorse a reduction in top marginal tax rates to roughly 28% for individuals and corporations in conjunction with the elimination of many deductions and credits. Clint Stretch, managing principal of federal tax policy at Deloitte Tax, doesn't think the plan will offer anything but the broadest guidelines for tax reform. Instead he thinks the president will continue to recommend that many of the Bush-era tax cuts be allowed to expire for high-income households, which could raise about $700 billion or so over a decade. "I'm not expecting a heavy lift," Stretch said. How the debt committee may react: Expectations aren't high that the president's plan will alter the already difficult politics facing the super committee. Indeed, Collender -- who is very pessimistic about the group's chances for success -- thinks the only way it may have an effect is if "he goes really big on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security." Otherwise, he said, the members are likely to look at Obama's proposal and say, "Thanks very much, we'll get back to you." But even if it doesn't alter the committee's deliberations, West thinks the president's plan will "take on an importance for laying the groundwork for the types of provisions a second-term Obama will seek in a deficit grand bargain in 2013." 

Postal Service targets 252 mail facilities

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Hundreds of mail-handling facilities have been named in a shutdown list released Thursday by the U.S. Postal Service as the agency tries to fight massive red ink. The potential closings are the latest chapter in a fundamental overhaul of the agency that could also mean closing thousands of smaller post offices across the country and cutting tens of thousands of Postal Service jobs in years to come. Print It could also result in slightly slower delivery of first-class mail. "It is no exaggeration to say that we are radically re-aligning the way that we process mail, the way that we deliver mail, and the way that we operate our retail network," Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe told reporters at a Thursday briefing.

The latest list targets 252 processing facilities and related "network transportation," as the Postal Service calls its distribution system, which now consists of 487 facilities. "Our immediate goal is to reduce our total costs by $20 billion by 2015," Donahoe said, including $3 billion in anticipated savings from the facilities realignment announced Thursday. Each facility on the list has a workforce of between 50 and 2,000 employees. Donahoe said the Postal Service hopes the workforce reductions will come through attrition, not layoffs. To bolster that hope, he cited the successful cutting of the postal payroll in recent years by a quarter-million workers, without layoffs. As with an earlier list of several thousand small post offices slated for closure, officials say a review process with standardized criteria will determine the ultimate fate of the facilities on the new list. 0:00 / 2:26 USPS Postmaster: We will survive Donahoe said Thursday that more than 20 of those post offices have since been taken off the proposed shutdown list, after a review determined the community had no acceptable alternatives. With the proposed change in mail-handling facilities, postal officials say customers can expect a first-class letter to take two or three days to be delivered, instead of the one- to three-day standard the existing delivery system was designed to meet. Postal Service Chief Operating Officer Megan Brennan told reporters the agency's huge deficit prompted a change in thinking in 2006, going from a strategy of staying ahead of the growth in postal volume seen in the 1970s to now staying ahead of costs as volume declines. Donahoe said it's possible the cost of first-class postage, now at 44 cents, could go up next year to help boost revenues. He told Congress last week that the steps the Postal Service is taking should restore profitability by 2015. Thursday he repeated what he told lawmakers -- that the Postal Service has a dire cash crunch and will not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment to a health benefits fund for future retirees that was due at the end of this month. But, he said, the administration's 90-day extension buys time for Congress to allow the Postal Service to shift a surplus in that health benefits fund to help cover expenses elsewhere. He declined to speculate on what would happen if Congress fails to act. 

Bankruptcy among college grads grows

More college graduates are filing for bankruptcy, according to the Institute for Financial Literacy. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Bankruptcy has gotten more educated over the past five years, as financial distress spread to more of the population with college degrees, according to study results released Tuesday. "The Great Recession has had a dramatic impact on the bankruptcy filings of American consumers across the economic spectrum -- including college-educated, high-income earners," said Leslie Linfield, executive director and founder of the Institute for Financial Literacy, which conducted the study. Print While those who didn't graduate from college make up 70% of debtors, the study found that the rate of college graduates filing for bankruptcy increased by 20%. "While less educated, low-income individuals continue to represent the typical bankruptcy filer, this report underscores a sophisticated evolution of the profile of the American debtor that now extends to disparate age, income and ethnic groups," Linfield said.

The study involved more than 50,000 respondents and ran from 2006 to 2010, tracking the financial status of debtors since the passage of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act. Not surprisingly, the rate of unemployed Americans filing for bankruptcy increased by 21% since 2006. But since the study was first conducted in 2006, there has been a gradual shift in bankruptcy filings toward higher income earners. 0:00 / 3:08 20 years old, $30K in debt, no degree In 2006, only 5.5% of the debtors participating in the report made more than $60,000, but this income bracket shifted to more than 9% by 2010. Married Americans were hit particularly hard, experiencing a 12% increase in bankruptcy filings since 2006. Married people represent more than 60% of all filings. Of those filings, nearly 35% were joint petitions, the study said. "Married was the dominant marital status of those seeking bankruptcy protection between 2006 and 2010," read the report. How I saved $50,000 in college costs When asked about the causes of their financial distress from 2006 to 2010, increasing rates of respondents reported that they were overextended on their credit, had experienced a reduction in income, or had lost their jobs. Other causes, such as unexpected expenses, death of a family member, illness and injury, showed a decrease over five years. The study also explored the racial demographic of debtors. The rate of whites and Native Americans filing for bankruptcy was little changed over five years. Paying the bills with 'blood money' But the percentage of Asian- Americans who filed for bankruptcy more than doubled, from 2.1% in 2006 to 4.5% in 2010. The percentage of Hispanics filing for bankruptcy also increased, to 8.7% from 6.5%. African-Americans were the only ethnic group to show a significant decline in bankruptcy filings, to 11.3% from 15.4%. 

Poverty rate rises in America

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Amid a still struggling economy, more people in America fell below the poverty line last year, according to new census data released Tuesday. The nation's poverty rate rose to 15.1% in 2010, its highest level since 1993. In 2009, 14.3% of people in America were living in poverty. Print Poverty in America "The results are not surprising given the economy," said Paul Osterman, author of "Good Jobs America," and a labor economist at MIT. "You would expect with so many people unemployed, the poverty rate would go up.

It's just another sign of what a difficult time this is for so many people." About 46.2 million people are now considered in poverty, 2.6 million more than last year. The government defines the poverty line as income of $22,314 a year for a family of four and $11,139 for an individual. The Office of Management and Budget updates the poverty line each year to account for inflation. How the rich became the über rich Middle-class wealth falls: For middle-class families, income fell in 2010. The median household income was $49,445, down slightly from $49,777 the year before. Median income has changed very little over the last 30 years. Adjusted for inflation, the middle-income family only earned 11% more in 2010 than they did in 1980, while the richest 5% in America saw their incomes surge 42%. "Over that period of time, it's not that the American economy has necessarily performed badly," Osterman said. "As a country we're richer over that period, but there's been this real shift in where the income has gone, and it's to the top." Amplifying that trend, the bottom 60% of households saw their income fall last year, while households making $100,000 or more enjoyed a rise in income. Check the poverty rate in your state More children in poverty: The poverty rate for children under age 18 increased to 22% in 2010, meaning more than 1 in 5 children in America are living in poverty. Meanwhile, the poverty rate for adults ages 18 to 64 rose to 13.7%. For people 65 and older, the poverty rate was barely changed at 9%. Following the recession, fewer young adults are moving out of their parents' homes. Last year, 5.9 million young adults age 25 to 34 still lived with their folks, compared with 4.7 million before the recession. Race and gender factors: By race, the poverty rate was lowest for non-Hispanic whites at 9.9%. Blacks had the highest rate at 27.4%, followed by people of Hispanic origin at 26.6%. Asians had a poverty rate of 12.1%. About 14% of men were below the poverty line, compared to 16.2% of women. Families headed by a married couple had only a 6.2% poverty rate, whereas families with a single mother had a 31.6% rate, and families with a single father had a 15.8% rate. 0:00 / 3:09 Stuck in American chronic poverty South hit the hardest: For the fifth year in a row, Mississippi households were the poorest in the country, this time with a median income of $37,985. New Hampshire households had the highest median income, at $66,707. Among different regions of the country, the South had the highest poverty rate at 16.9%, while the Northeast had the lowest rate at 12.8%. The poverty rate was 13.9% in the Midwest and 15.3% in the West. The income used to calculate poverty status includes earnings, workman's compensation, unemployment insurance, Social Security, veteran's payments, pensions, interest and dividends, and just about every other source of cash. It does not, however, include capital gains, so, theoretically, millionaires could qualify as poor if they lived solely by selling off investments. Non-cash benefits, such as food stamps or subsidized rents, also do not count as income. Check the uninsured rate in your state More people are uninsured: The census report also contained data on health insurance, showing people lacking medical benefits climbed to 49.9 million last year, up from 49 million in 2009. Overall, about 16.3% of people in America were uninsured in 2010, statistically unchanged from 2009. Are you living below the poverty level and depending on government assistance? Send an email to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be profiled in an upcoming piece on CNNMoney. For the CNNMoney Comment Policy, click here. 

Consumer Confidence

Salesman Charlie Davidson waits for customers to walk in to his electronics store in Miami, Fla. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Americans are now as pessimistic about the U.S. economy as they were in the middle of the Great Recession. A key reading on consumer confidence plunged in August, to its lowest level since April 2009. The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index for August fell to 44.5, down from 59.2 in July.

Print The gloomy outlook came as Congress allowed its debt ceiling debates to drag on until nearly the last minute and Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating earlier in the month. At the same time, consumers were also being weighed down by 9.1% unemployment, a roller-coaster month for stocks and a still-distressed real estate market. According to the latest index, consumers grew more pessimistic not only about the present-day economy, but also about their future prospects. The so-called Expectations Index took a 23-point dive, falling to 51.9 from 74.9 in July. It marked the largest point drop since the Great Recession's heyday. About 49% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get." Only 11.8% said they expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, and 24.6% said they expect conditions to worsen. The Consumer Confidence numbers are based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households and are closely watched because consumer spending makes up 70% of the nation's economic activity. The weak report comes just a day after government data showed consumer spending picked up 0.8% in July. Economists called that reading an encouraging sign for the economy, but they were wary that the debt ceiling debates, S&P downgrade, choppy stocks and Hurricane Irene could cause consumers to cut back in August. "The darkening outlook by U.S. consumers is very worrying, despite some of the better news lately," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets in a note to investors. "We will have to see if this is a one-month blip." 

China's rising prices slow in August

The prices Chinese consumers pay for goods and services rose 6.2% in August, according to a report out Friday. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Rapidly rising prices in China finally started to slow in August, giving some relief to consumers in the world's second largest economy. China's Consumer Price Index -- a broad measure of prices for food, housing, clothing and other common items -- showed that prices rose 6.2% over the 12 months ending in August, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday. Print That marks a slight slowdown in China's rapidly growing inflation rate, after CPI grew 6.5% in July -- the fastest rate in three years. Last month marked the first time Chinese inflation has slowed since December.

Still though, food prices -- the main driver behind China's inflation -- are substantially higher than they were a year ago. And in a country where food accounts for more than a third of the average person's expenses, rising prices can take a substantial chunk out of consumer spending. "A rise in food prices relative to prices of all other goods hurts China's households ... severely," Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics said in a research note earlier this week. We're hiring... In China! Chinese food prices in August were up 13.4% year-over-year, with meat and poultry prices the main driver -- up 29.3%. Non-food inflation was up 3%, its highest level ever recorded, said Chi Sun, an economist with Nomura. "We found basically every item in the basket of prices is increasing, so we think inflation is broad-based," she said. Most economists think those prices will start to come down later this year. "If the harvest turns out well, consumer prices will stop rising and may even fall by the end of this year," Weinberg said.  

What's in Obama's stimulus plan

President Obama called for Congress to again extend help for the jobless. "At this time of prolonged hardship, you should pass it again -- right away." NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- President Obama unveiled a stimulus plan Thursday night that he says will boost hiring and provide a jolt to the stalled economy if it becomes law. A mix of $253 billion in tax cuts and $194 billion in new spending, the total bill for the plan is $447 billion. Given staunch Republican opposition to most new spending, the measure has almost no chance of passing the House in its current form. Print But select parts of the bill could become law, and provide a measure of support for an economy at risk of falling into another recession.

"There is no problem that is more urgent," said Pamela Loprest, director of the Income and Benefits Policy Center at the Urban Institute. "Economically, the plan hits different places. There are different parts of the economy Obama is trying to jolt." So what exactly does the president want Congress to do? TAX CUTS Payroll tax cuts: Employees normally pay 6.2% on their first $106,800 of wages into Social Security, but they are now paying only 4.2%. That tax break is set to expire at the end of the year, and Obama would like to expand and extend it. He would cut it in half to 3.1%. Obama also wants to cut the payroll tax businesses pay in half -- to 3.1% -- on the first $5 million in wages. And if a business hires a new worker or gives an existing worker a raise, all payroll taxes will be waived. 0:00 / 2:00 Obama's jobs speech in 2 minutes Total cost: $240 billion, or more than half the total package. Other tax measures: Obama would offer $8 billion in tax credits for companies that hire workers who have been unemployed for six months or more and $5 billion in tax incentives for companies to invest in equipment and plants. SPENDING Infrastructure bank: Democrats, and Obama in particular, love talking about investments in infrastructure. One top priority: a national "infrastructure bank." Here's how it would work: After an initial round of funding -- Obama called for $10 billion -- the bank would offer loans to give private-sector projects a jolt of money. Eventually, interest paid on the loans would make the bank self sufficient. On Thursday, Obama said funds would be distributed based on "how badly a construction project is needed and how much good it would do for the economy." Immediate surface transportation: Nodding to an idea supported by both the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Obama proposed $50 billion in immediate funding for highways, transit, rail and aviation. Modernizing schools/vacant property: The president wants to spend $25 billion to modernize at least 35,000 public schools. In addition, $5 billion would go to improving community colleges. A separate measure -- dubbed "Project Rebuild" -- would put $15 billion toward fixing up vacant and foreclosed homes and businesses. Extend unemployment benefits: Nearly 43% of the unemployed have been so for more than six months -- a drag on the economy that Obama wants to soften by extending unemployment benefits once again. Lawmakers first lengthened unemployment benefits to the current 99 weeks in 2009, and then reauthorized the measure five times since. The White House estimates another extension would cost $49 billion. "Democrats and Republicans in this chamber have supported unemployment insurance plenty of times in the past. At this time of prolonged hardship, you should pass it again -- right away," Obama said. Help for long-term unemployed: The president wants a new tax credit of up to $4,000 for businesses that hire workers who have been out of a job for over six months. Subsidized jobs training: Following the lead of a job training program in Georgia, Obama wants to offer the unemployed a chance to work temporarily as a way to build their skills while they search for a permanent job. In the existing Georgia Works program, participants don't get paid, but they do get to keep their jobless benefits and receive a stipend of up to $240 for transportation and other expenses. Teaching and first responder jobs: Obama is asking for $35 billion to be pumped into local communities to keep teachers and first responders on the job, while also allowing for some new hiring. Of that, $30 billion would go to educators, and the rest to first responders. Summer jobs: Obama wants to give hundreds of thousands of youth "the hope and dignity of a summer job next year." The unemployment rate for youth ages 16 to 24 rose to a record high this summer. ALSO ... Housing help: He also vowed to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help homeowners refinance their mortgages at historically low interest rates around 4%. (Check Obama's housing scorecard). How he'd pay for his plan: Obama vowed his plan would be fully paid for and asked the new debt super committee, already charged with proposing between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion in debt reduction over a decade, to add the cost of American Jobs Act to its goal. So presumably if the panel did that, its new target would move closer to $2 trillion. The president said he would submit his debt-cutting plan to the super committee on Sept. 19. He characterized it as "ambitious - a plan that will not only cover the cost of this jobs bill, but stabilize our debt in the long run." His recommendations will include additional spending cuts that would phase in gradually, "modest adjustments" to Medicare and Medicaid, and a tax reform plan 'that asks the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations to pay their fair share." --CNNMoney senior writer Jeanne Sahadi contributed to this report.  

Tax reform could be too big for super committee

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Everyone agrees -- fixing the tax code is imperative. Many believe a simpler, smarter tax code can help reduce the country's debt burden by generating a more competitive economy and by raising more revenue through lower tax rates and a broader base of what's taxed. Print What's more, many say it's hard to address all the problems facing the entitlement programs without tax reform. So it stands to reason that the 12-member bipartisan debt super committee -- set to hold its first meeting Thursday -- would include tax reform in its proposals to Congress. But it's hardly a sure bet that the panel will do so because of practical and political obstacles standing in the way.

Those obstacles aren't necessarily insurmountable, fiscal experts say, but they will almost certainly preclude a fully baked tax reform plan coming out of the super committee process. Time is not on their side: The members of the super committee have all of 11 weeks to produce a plan to cut deficits by at least $1.2 trillion over the next decade. Their proposals are due to the House and Senate on Nov. 23. And unlike President Obama's bipartisan fiscal commission -- which worked in earnest for at least six months -- the super committee can't just turn out a well-written report. It has to write real legislation. (How Obama's commission would reform the tax code) Even when not pressed for time, drafting a bill to transition from the current tax code to a new one is "a difficult thing to do," said Alex Brill, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who advised Obama's fiscal commission, at a Business Roundtable event this week. Partisan divisions won't dissolve: Even if all 12 members of the super committee were willing to put ideology aside, their success as a group will depend on whether they can sell their plan to a majority of their colleagues in the House and Senate. There is reason to be skeptical that a) the negotiators will actually break their partisan molds; and b) if they do, that their plan will fly with a majority of lawmakers. National debt: The 5-minute primer "There is a core disagreement over the level of taxation as a proxy for the size of government," said Clint Stretch, managing principal of federal tax policy at Deloitte Tax. Generally speaking Republicans don't want government to live on revenue of more than 18% of GDP, while Democrats would prefer something closer to 21%. That's a difference of about $4 trillion over a decade, Stretch said. Meanwhile, many Democrats have said they won't discuss entitlement reform unless Republicans show a willingness to raise more revenue. Already one super committee member -- Republican Sen. Jon Kyl -- has said he will propose that the committee table tax reform and major entitlement reform, according to a National Journal report. "I am going to suggest to my colleagues that we should first focus on areas where we can reach agreement. Because if we start asking each other to make a big compromise on principle, that is hard to do," Kyl said. Turf troubles may be an issue: Writing tax law is the domain of the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees. 0:00 / 2:54 Bogle: Politicians are big risk to economy The chairmen of those committees -- Democratic Sen. Max Baucus and Republican Congressman Dave Camp -- are on the super committee. But it's not clear whether they will cede their authority to a small group of lawmakers. Of course the same may be said of any recommendations the committee might make for Social Security and Medicare, both of which also fall under the jurisdiction of the Finance and Ways and Means committees. Both Baucus and Camp also sat on Obama's fiscal commission. And both men were part of the minority in that group who voted against the commissions' proposals. Among their objections: Baucus didn't like some of the ways that the group dealt with entitlement reform and Camp didn't like some of the ways it deal with tax reform. Still, there's some potential for tax reform: In the little time they have, the committee members may well recommend that some tax breaks be curtailed, said budget expert Alice Rivlin and William Hoagland, a former Senate Budget staff director. Both spoke at the Business Roundtable event. Killing off a few tax breaks, however, isn't reform. But the super committee could advance the cause by issuing "super" rules, Hoagland and Rivlin said. Such rules would require Congress to reform the tax code by a specific date in the future -- and in a way that's free of the usual procedural hurdles. "They need to go to a two-stage process," Rivlin said.  

No chief for the consumer bureau any time soon

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- President Obama's nominee to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau got a hearing on Tuesday, but that may be all he gets. Democrats want Richard Cordray to be the consumer bureau's first director. Republicans say they haven't changed their mind -- they won't confirm any director to run the bureau without significant changes to the bureau's structure, which would weaken the bureau's powers. Print During the Tuesday hearing, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking panel, Sen. Richard Shelby, called the hearing "premature," saying that the panel shouldn't be considering any nominee until Democrats take their demands for accountability more seriously.

Republicans want the director replaced with a panel and they want to make it easier to veto consumer bureau rules. "You're caught between a big substantive debate here, as you well know," Shelby said to Cordray. Cordray, 52, works as the chief enforcement officer for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in Washington. He's an attorney who served in the Ohio state house and teaches at Ohio State University as an adjunct professor. Democrats used the Senate banking hearing to complain that Republicans were using filibuster powers to hamstring the bureau and rehash a battle fought last year. "This vocal minority insists on rehashing the same debate Congress had last year when it created the CFPB as an accountable yet independent regulator," said Senate Banking chief Tim Johnson. 0:00 / 1:58 The long, bumpy road to consumer protection Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, said that his big opposition is that there's no way to challenge a decision by the consumer bureau, unless a particular rule "threatens the stability of the financial system." The consumer bureau can be over-turned by two-thirds vote of a panel of financial regulators, which Corker called a "high hurdle." Corker asked Cordray if he thought that veto power over the bureau's decisions was a high hurdle. "It is a high hurdle, but not an inappropriate one," Cordray said. Behind the Bureau: In July, the CFPB launched as an independent agency, got the power to start examining the books of the nation's largest banks to make sure they're abiding by existing laws that protect consumers. The bureau can also make sure that the banks are following credit card laws that crack down on fees, and spell out how long it takes to pay off credit card debt through minimum payments. However, until Cordray steps up as the official director, the bureau continues to lack new powers critical to preventing the next financial crisis --- such as regulating the non-banking firms that originated hundreds of millions of dollars in subprime mortgages, in the height of the boom, to families who couldn't afford them, During the hearing, Cordray acknowledged that lack of power as "unfortunate," especially for smaller banks who compete with nonbanks. The CFPB was the brainchild of Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard University law professor. The bureau is intended to make basic financial practices -- such as taking out a mortgage or making loans -- more clear and transparent, while ferreting out unfair lending practices. Warren had been a leading candidate to run the bureau and spent the past year working as a White House and Treasury adviser setting up the bureau. She has returned to Harvard University. 

The 9/11 fund: Putting a price on life

Kenneth Feinberg, who oversaw the $7 billion compensation fund for Sept. 11 victims, said the fund was "unique in American history." NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, were unprecedented, not only in their intensity and devastation, but in the way Washington responded. Eleven days after the attacks claimed more than 2,700 lives, Congress created a $7 billion fund to compensate 5,562 family members of the fallen. Payments went to widows and widowers, children and parents. Print Kenneth Feinberg, the lawyer who was appointed as special master of the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund, told CNNMoney that the fund was "unique in American history," much like the attacks themselves.

The speedy creation of the fund, which required the cooperation of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, seems particularly dramatic when compared to the current brinkmanship over the budget. Feinberg believes that a fund of the type and magnitude of the September 11 Victim Compensation Fund will never be repeated. "Bad things happen to good people every day in this country and it's not part of our heritage for the taxpayer to be an insurer," he said. "To give these people, on average, $2 million tax free flies in the face of American history." A tragedy and a windfall: What to do next? The payment for death claims averaged $2,083,000 for families, while compensation for injury claims averaged $400,000. The purpose of the September 11 fund was to compensate the family members of the 2,753 victims who were killed by al Qaeda terrorists who hijacked four commercial airliners and crashed three of them into World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The fourth plane went down in Pennsylvania when the victims rebelled against their captors. The fund closed in 2003, but President Obama reactivated it earlier this year. The new fund, called the Zadroga Act, was created out of concern that some victims, particularly first responders, became ill or died from exposure to toxins at the attack sites years after the fund closed 2003. Feinberg said the congressional motive behind the original fund was "to demonstrate our solidarity and our compassion and sympathy for the victims." But it had another critical mandate: To protect the airline industry from tanking and taking the U.S. economy down with it. Before the victims' families could receive funding, they had to agree to not sue the airlines. 0:00 / 3:41 Building the World Trade Center - twice! "After 9/11, there was a fear that commercial airlines were going to shut down," said said Lloyd Dixon, senior economist for the Rand Corp., a public policy think tank. "[The fund] certainly was an act of passion and an act of being united as a country. But it was also united by this concern that if they didn't do something about broader liability, then the economy was going to be in trouble," he said. Paying the bills with 'blood money' Donald Migliori, a lawyer representing survivors who elected to sue the airlines, thinks protecting the airlines was the wrong thing to do. He said the airlines should be held accountable for the security lapses that led to the attack, and that victims should be compensated with money from the airlines, not from the government. Migliori represented 56 of the 95 victims who settled with the airlines for a total of over $500 million. One of his clients is the only victim still pursuing a claim against the airlines. Mary Bavis, who had a son on the doomed United flight, has a lawsuit against the airline which is scheduled for a hearing on Nov. 7 in federal court in New York City. For those families who did take a payment from the 9/11 fund, the size of their settlements differed widely, depending on whether the victim was a firefighter, a dishwasher or a corporate executive. Compensation started at $250,000 for relatives of the lowest-paid breadwinners -- those who earned up to $20,000 per year. Payments for victims in the highest salary bracket of $220,000 or more were much higher; some families received as much as $7.1 million. Feinberg described how he calculated the payout, as stipulated by Congress: Determine the economic loss suffered as a result of the victim's premature death. Add that number to an estimate based on pain and suffering, and emotional distress. Subtract from that number any collateral source of income due to the survivors -- like life insurance. Feinberg detailed the disparity of incomes in his book, "What is Life Worth? The Unprecedented Effort to Compensate the Victims of 9/11." He wrote about meeting with "poor, humble families from South America, who did not even speak English" who were related to kitchen workers who died in the World Trade Center. They stood in stark contrast to the "investment bankers who made millions of dollars each year." "One of the controversial things that [the fund did] was tie compensation to incomes of those killed or seriously injured in the attacks," said Rand's Lloyd Dixon. "So some people received far more compensation than others." Sick 9/11 first responders: Not all get help There was no such government compensation for other terrorist attacks, like Timothy McVeigh's 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah building in Oklahoma City that killed 168 people. Nor have there been funds for devastating natural disasters, like Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged New Orleans and other parts of the Deep South in 2005, killing more than 1,700 people. Obama reactivated the new 9/11 fund in January, when he signed into law the First Responders Bill, also known as the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act. The act set aside $4.3 billion in federal funds to cover all costs for treating certain 9/11-related illnesses among first responders and survivors and to provide compensation to victims. How Sept. 11 changed charity in America Of that amount, $1.5 billion will go to cover health costs, while $2.7 billion is set aside for payouts to people who suffered economic losses tied to a physical injury or the loss of a family member. And according to Sheila Birnbaum, the lawyer who is the special master of the Zadroga fund, it too requires beneficiaries to sign on the dotted line, just like the original fund. "There is the same requirement," she said. "You have to agree not to sue anyone, not just the airlines." -- CNNMoney senior writer Parija Kavilanz contributed to this story.  

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence still hasn't fully recovered from the recession, but in July, optimism about future business conditions and jobs picked up slightly. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Consumers aren't exactly feeling rosy about the economy, but in July, their confidence picked up slightly as they hung their hopes on an improving job market in the future. The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index for July rose to 59.5 from 57.6 in June, showing optimism about the economy picked up slightly from month to month. Print "Overall, consumers remain apprehensive about the future, but some of the concern expressed last month has abated," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, in a statement. According to the report, consumers were less content with their current financial conditions.

Instead, hope for an improving economy in the future was the main driver behind the overall increase in optimism. The report's so-called Expectations Index rose, even though the Present Situation Index fell. Only 13.4% of participants in the study said current business conditions were "good," marking a decline from 13.7% the month before. Meanwhile, 39% declared conditions were "bad" -- an increase from 38.4% in June. Where the jobs are Pessimism about the job market also weighed on consumers. Only 5.1% of participants said jobs are "plentiful," while 44.1% said jobs are "hard to get." But looking ahead six months, consumers were slightly more optimistic that business conditions, jobs and their income will improve. Overall, economists were expecting the index to fall to 56, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com. 0:00 / 2:03 Why you care about a debt downgrade Other than a one-month blip in February, the Consumer Confidence Index has jumped around significantly, and struggled to get above the 70-point mark since 2008. "I think is more of the choppiness that we're seeing -- and overall, the reading is still relatively weak," Franco said. "It's been two years since the recession ended, and we've still not seen a full fledged recovery in Consumer Confidence." Before the financial crisis warning signs surfaced, Consumer Confidence stood at 111.9 in July 2007. 

Obama backs off tough clean air regulation

President suspends a new ozone requirment after fierce criticism from Republican lawmakers -- and after the economy posts zero new jobs in August. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- After weeks of Republican attacks on the Obama administration's tightening of environmental regulations, the president said Friday he would halt a planned increase in clean air standards. In a statement released just hours after the U.S. Labor Department said the economy created no new jobs in August, Obama said he told Environmental Protection Agency head Lisa Jackson to withdraw the draft Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Print While stressing his environmental record, Obama said he has "continued to underscore the importance of reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory uncertainty, particularly as our economy continues to recover." Reaction on both sides of the debate was swift and sharp.

"It's probably the only decision to make in light of the bleak jobs numbers today," said Ross Eisenberg, environmental and energy counsel for the Chamber of Commerce. "We don't need the added costs, we don't need the uncertainty on business right now." "The President's decision is good news for the economy and Americans looking for work," American Petroleum Institute President Jack Gerard said in a statement. "EPA's proposal would have prevented the very job creation that President Obama has identified as his top priority." But others said it was was bad move for the nation's health. Recession risk rises "The White House is siding with corporate polluters over the American people," Frances Beinecke, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement. "Our public officials, including in the White House, serve to protect us from harm. They need to get on with doing their jobs." The administration's "final decision not to enact a more protective ozone health standard is jeopardizing the health of millions of American, which is inexcusable," Charles Connor, head of the American Lung Association, said in a statement. Ground-level ozone, similar to smog, is created by the burring of fossil fuels. The compound is linked to respiratory disease and thousands of premature deaths each year. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, increasing the standard would save 4,300 lives per year, prevent 7,000 hospital visits and avoid 2.6 million missed days of work or school. 0:00 / 4:01 Harvard economist: 'We never left the recession' The agency predicts that a higher standard would cost $25 billion per year, but yield $37 billion in benefits, like eliminating those missed work days. The administration had been attempting to tighten the standards regarding how much ozone can be in the air. But those efforts have been met with stiff resistance by lawmakers concerned over their effects on the economy. Earlier this week, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor called the proposed ozone rule "the most harmful of all the currently anticipated Obama Administration regulations." Areas of the country that do not meet ozone requirements are subject to constraints on development, which could include the denial of permits for new industries until filters or cleaner fuel can be used for existing activities. A grim picture for workers The Chamber's Eisenberg disputed the EPA's claimed benefits from tightening the standards. He said that while great progress has been made cleaning up the air over the last several decades, we're now at a point of diminishing returns -- the cost of cleaning up the remaining pollution outweighs the benefits. The Chamber pointed to recent testimony from several labor unions, which said the new clean air requirements on just the utility industry would result in the loss of over 250,000 jobs. Friday's decision did not sit well with Obama's core supporters. "Many MoveOn members are wondering today how they can ever work for President Obama's re-election, or make the case for him to their neighbors," said MoveOn head Justin Ruben in a statement. The administration is also trying to tighten a handful of other environmental and labor regulations, efforts that are also meeting stiff resistance in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. On a conference call with reporters, White House officials said Friday's move to delay the ozone regulations should not be taken as a sign that the administration will give up on the other items. But analysts weren't convinced. "The White House is looking increasingly at the political ramifications of tight environmental policy and trying to soften the blow whenever they can," Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, wrote in a research note Friday. "We would encourage clients to watch this space."  

Gold wedding bands get dumped for tungsten

Jewelers are shunning pricey gold and embracing cheaper metals like tungsten, cobalt, even stainless steel for making items like wedding bands. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Forget about sentimentality and tradition. Skyrocketing gold prices have jewelers and cash-strapped couples clamoring for wedding bands made of less expensive metals like tungsten, cobalt and even stainless steel. Print Over the past three months, tungsten, a steel-gray hard metal, has become an increasingly popular choice over gold with wedding band shoppers at Blue Nile ( NILE ), said John Baird, public relations director with the online jewelry seller. "The response to our recent men's tungsten collection was immediate," said Baird, adding that the company subsequently debuted a men's Titanium wedding band collection in July.

"In 30 days, one in every 10 men's wedding bands we sold that month was titanium," he said. As the economic downturn forces Americans to tighten their belts, consumers shopping for jewelry have become more willing to consider cheaper alternatives, Baird said. Confessions of extreme penny pinchers Kay Jewelers has also been selling jewelry made of tungsten and titanium for a while. Company spokesman David Bouffard said these "alternative" metals give customers more choice and a wider range of prices to choose from when it comes to wedding jewelry. Blue Nile's tungsten wedding bands cost a little over $200 while the cost of a Titanium wedding band is about $100. Compare that to $1,900 for a classic men's platinum wedding band and $700, or higher, for a white gold band sold at Blue Nile But it's not just those celebrating their nuptials that are feeling the pinch. Jewelry makers and sellers themselves are also struggling with sharply higher prices for precious metals like gold and platinum. Gold costs about $1,840 an ounce, up 204% from about $605 per ounce just five years ago. So far, jewelers are limiting collections made of these industrial metals to men's lines. "To men, there's a coolness factor with tungsten, titanium and stainless steel," said Peggy Donahue, spokeswoman with Manufacturing Jewelers & Suppliers of America. Industry experts said male consumers seem to like knowing that these industrial, space-age metals are used in making fighter jets, for example. "Women aren't there yet," said Amanda Gizzi, spokesperson for Jewelers of America. "Especially with wedding jewelry, women want to stay traditional and buy gold or platinum," she said. "They don't want to compromise at all because they're thinking about passing down these rings for generations." Don't tell that to Kyle Marie Lotspeich. Practicality trumps sentimentality for Lotspeich, who lives in Ashburn, Virginia. Kyle and her fiancé James are getting married on Oct. 1. "I would have also bought a tungsten wedding band but Blue Nile wasn't selling one for women," she said. But her fiancé did buy a $320 white tungsten wedding band from the jeweler. "Our wedding is on a tight budget and we're mostly paying for all of it ourselves," she said. 0:00 / 3:13 'Cash for gold' biz is booming "A gold wedding band would have cost us close to $1,000. This has definitely helped us save money and maybe put it toward paying for something else for our wedding." Blue Nile hasn't yet debuted a tungsten bridal collection but is looking into it. Until two years ago, American jewelry designer Scott Kay had only used gold and platinum for his unique and popular high-end engagement and wedding rings. In 2009, Kay, who has been designing bridal jewelry for 27 years, became interested in another white metal that has the same sheen as platinum but costs substantially less -- cobalt. Kay also considered experimenting with tungsten but gave up on that because he thinks it's too brittle. Cobalt is an industrial metal, used in aerospace technology and in medical equipment such as joint replacements. "When we looked at this metal, it was a no brainer to us," said Kay. "Why not make men's weddings rings from this?" What's more, the timing for an affordable collection in the $200 to $300 price range was perfect. "It was just when the economy was softening," he said. Today, Kay said his cobalt collection is in more than 2,000 stores. But Kay offers a reality check: "A person who is fond of gold and platinum will always own it," he said. "But for 20- and 30-year-olds who have become more frugal and practical, if they can buy a hypoallergenic metal that doesn't chip and is less than half the price of a platinum ring, why not?" Kay said.  

With zero jobs, recession risk just got worse

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come. That's because high unemployment could be a warning sign -- and the cause -- of the country falling into a double dip recession. Print Most economists weren't ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one. They're worried because weakness in the labor market can lead businesses and households to pullback on spending.

And that is the worst thing possible for an economy where overall growth has slowed to nearly zero. "When employment drops, incomes fall. When income falls, sales fall. When sales fall, production falls. When production falls, employment falls," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. It's a tough cycle to break. "You can scream and shout, you can be the President, you can be the Congress, you can be the central bank, you're not going to stop that once it gets going," said Achuthan. Even so, the economy is still technically creating jobs -- albeit very slowly -- and Achuthan thinks the economy would need to actually lose jobs before tipping back into recession. One of the biggest worries from economists is there doesn't seem to be much that will be done to address the weakness. The Federal Reserve is considering additional support, but even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned there are limits to what the central bank can do. Bernanke said in a speech last week that Congress needs to step in. Such fiscal stimulus would include either more government spending or more tax cuts. But Republicans and Democrats are having trouble even reaching agreement about what night President Obama can lay out a new jobs plan, let alone agree upon what action should be taken. "There is no political will in Washington...to stimulate the economy," said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank. "The patient is extremely sick and needs some medicine, but by and large the economy is on its own to work this out." Of course economists aren't the only ones growing more worried. Consumer confidence experienced the sharpest decline in August since the height of the financial crisis. 0:00 / 4:01 Harvard economist: 'We never left the recession' John Silvia, chief economist for Wells Fargo Securities, said the economy remains at risk as long as most households are struggling with weak wages, rising prices and the loss of household wealth. Silvia puts the chance of a new recession at 30% to 40%, up from 20% to 30% before Friday's jobs report. "A significant number of Americans have never seen a recovery," Silvia said. "We're just skating on really thin ice. We can't take another shot." Technically, the recession ended in June 2009, according to the official definition from the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group takes into account a wide range of economic indicators. For the average household, the Great Recession never ended. In fact, eight in 10 Americans think we're still on one, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. Harvard University Professor Ken Rogoff said that view is justified. "We have never left the recession by any reasonable measure," Rogoff said. "If you're 10 feet below water, and you come up a foot, you're still drowning. The question of whether we are growing at 1% or falling at 1% is not the big issue. We're in a different animal." Have you run out of unemployment benefits? How are you surviving? Send an email to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be profiled in an upcoming piece on CNNMoney. Please include your phone number. For the CNNMoney Comment Policy, click here.  

Unemployment claims dip

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 409,000 in the week ending Aug. 27, the Labor Department said Thursday. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Filings for unemployment claims dipped last week, after striking Verizon employees went back to work. The number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits fell to 409,000 in the week ending Aug. 27, the Labor Department said Thursday.

That's down 12,000 from a revised 421,000 the prior week. Print Economists were predicting initial claims would fall to 407,000 during the week, according to Briefing.com. Unemployment claims from striking Verizon workers had pushed the figure up substantially for two weeks in a row. In most states, striking workers aren't eligible for unemployment benefits, but that doesn't necessarily stop them from applying anyway. About 45,000 Verizon ( VZ , Fortune 500) workers went on strike Aug. 7, after the telecommunications giant pushed for cuts in health benefits and pensions when its contracts with two major unions expired. The strikes ended two weeks later, without the unions reaching an agreement with the company. Verizon strike to hit monthly jobs reading As a result, at least 12,500 workers filed for initial unemployment claims from the government in the week ending Aug. 13 and another 8,500 workers filed for those benefits in the second week of the strike, the Labor Department originally reported. Stripping out the effects of the Verizon strike, initial claims have barely changed over the last few weeks, and economists are predicting they'll soon be clouded by the effect of Hurricane Irene. "Next week, the fact that 1.7 million homes and businesses are still out of power along the U.S. Eastern seaboard as of yesterday afternoon might have an impact on the claims data," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets in a research note. 0:00 / 2:54 Bogle: Politicians are big risk to economy Overall, continuing claims -- which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more -- fell by 18,000 to 3.7 million in the week ended Aug. 20, the most recent data available. The government's weekly unemployment claims report comes a day ahead of an even more anticipated monthly jobs report due Friday. A CNNMoney survey of 19 economists forecasts the U.S. economy added 80,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1% in August. The report is also likely to set the tone for President Obama's speech on job creation next Thursday.